September 5, 2011
2011 NFL Predictions: Stat Leaders
September 4, 2011
2011 NFL Playoff Predictions
Let's get started.
The sixth seed in the NFC will be the New Orleans Saints out of the NFC South with a record of 10-6. They didn't do much this off season with the exception of Mark Ingram. Just a side Wild Card note here: I have the Lions also going 10-6, but the Lions will lose the head to head with New Orleans.
With the fifth seed I have the Dallas Cowboys. The offense will be back with Romo back on the field, an improved secondary will help defend the passing game, and with an explosive offense as always, I project the Cowboys to go 11-5. That being said, we know the Cowboys have let their fans down the last couple of years; they were projected to have a great year and then screw the pooch. Expect the Cowboys to have a much better season this year.
Now our first division winner comes from the NFC West where the Kevin Kolb led Arizona Cardinals win their division by one game. They added Kevin Kolb from the Eagles in the off season as expected, and I anticipate them to have a much better year. I have the Cardinals winning the division with a 9-7 record, beating out the Rams by a small margin of only one game. Maybe 2012 will be the year for Bradford and the young St.Louis Rams.
In the three spot I have the Philadelphia Eagles from the NFC East. They had a great off season adding Jason Babin, Nnamdi Asomugha (no, I didn't have to search that name up), Cullen Jenkins, and a blockbuster Kolb for Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. Their defense has improved a ton, and they could be an extreme powerhouse this year if they can figure out their problems at the offensive line. That all being said, I have the Eagles down for 12-4.
In the two spot, from the NFC South, I have the Atlanta Falcons, led by Matty Ice. Just like the Saints, the Falcons made no big moves, but added some young depth. You may want to look out for Julio Jones this season; he has tremendous athletic ability and can score from anywhere on the field. I have the Falcons also going 12-4 but winning the match up with the Eagles to give them the first round bye and home field for the first game.
And the first seed in the NFC is the Green Bay Packers. They have kept nearly all of their Superbowl team from last year and are any people's Superbowl favorite. Jermicahel Finley, AJ Hawk, and Ryan Grant are all ready to go after being placed on IR last season. This might just be the best offense in the NFL this year with a two-man backfield and Aaron Rodgers under center. I have the Packers down to go 14-2 only losing at the Giants and at the Chargers.
With the sixth seed in the AFC is the New York Jets. A little difference from last year with a few added veterans and a new receiving core around Santonio Holmes. I have the Jets going 11-5, and taking second in the AFC East. Could this be the year of the "Sanchise"? I guess we will have to wait and see.
The fifth seed in the AFC from the AFC North with a 12-4 record is the Baltimore Ravens. Last year they made it to the divisional round and couldn't come up with a game winning drive against the Steelers: they were also my Superbowl pick last year. That being said, I think they will have another great season this year, and be in contention to get to the Superbowl.
The Texans have come close to the playoffs a number of times since becoming a franchise in 2002, but this is the year. Arian Foster is going to lead the Texans to win the AFC South and claim the fourth seed in the AFC with a 10-6 record. The Colts will finish a game behind with a record of 9-7.
The third seed in the AFC is the Chargers from the AFC West. They always seem to be over hyped, but they seemed to have fixed the problems on special teams so if they can minimize mistakes these team could be extremely good. I have them going 12-4 and winning their division by three games. Maybe Norv Turner can finally get to the Superbowl this year.
With the second seed I have the Pittsburgh Steelers. They have been to the Superbowl the last two years, and Mike Tomlin knows what he is doing. I have the Steelers going 13-3. I expect Big Ben to have a great season and win the division for the fourth time in the last five years.
Then the final seed (as many expected) is the New England Patriots. They have had made the playoffs eight times in the past ten years, and I expect them to make it nine out of eleven. They made improvements on their offensive line and in the secondary and picked up some good depth in the draft. I have them going 14-2 and I wouldn't doubt it. Patriots are going to be good, real good.
Now we move on to the good part: my playoff predictions. Now if you don't know how this works, the first round is called the Wild Card Round, the second round is the Divisional Round, and the round before the Superbowl is the Conference Championship. In the Wildcard Round the sixth seeded team in each conference plays the third seeded team in the same conference while the fourth and fifth seeds from the same conference play each other. The winner of those games advance to the Divisional Round where the lowest seed to advance in each conference plays the highest seed. The winner of those advance to the conference championship, and then the Superbowl. I'd hope, if you are American, you would already know that...but I thought I would help you out if you didn't.
Wildcard Round
In the NFC Wildcard round lets start with the Saints vs Eagles. I think Brees and the Saints will put up a fight, but Eagles will pull off in the end: Eagles 31, Saints 20.
Then in the second wild card game for the NFC is the Cowboys vs Cardinals. I think the Cowboys pass all over the Cardinals, and humiliate their offense: Cowboys 38, Cardinals 17.
Next we shift to the AFC where the Jets take on the Chargers. I think this will be the best game we see in the playoffs but Norv Turner and the Chargers will lose in overtime: Chargers 27, Jets 24
The second game for the AFC is the Ravens vs the Texans. Now I think this may be a good game as well. I really like the Ravens, but at the same time Houston can attack in a lot of different ways. I'm going to take the Ravens, but just by a hair: Ravens 27, Texans 24.
Divisonal Round
So like I said, after the wildcard round we move to the divisional round. The first game in the NFC is the Packers taking on the Cowboys. I think Cowboys will put up a fight at the beginning, but the Packers offense will be too much for the Cowboys young secondary: Packers 34, Cowboys 24.
The second game in the NFC is the Eagles taking on the Falcons for the second time of the season. The Falcons got the first round bye because they won the head to head matchup in week two of the regular season. But who can win it later in the season? I think the Falcons will find a way to contain Vick and McCoy and end up winning this one: Falcons 20, Eagles 14.
Then we move over to the AFC where the Chargers take on the Patriots. Rivers make an attempt for a comeback at the end, but I think the Patriots will hold on: Patriots 37, Chargers 30.
The final divisional match-up is the Ravens and the Steelers; another divisional rivalry. This is going to be another great game. I really like both of these teams this year but I think Ravens will win it on a game winning field goal: Ravens 16, Steelers 14.
Conference Championships
One last game. One more win to get to that Superbowl from here. In the NFC we have the Packers vs the Falcons and in the AFC the Patriots vs the Ravens. So who's it going to be?
In the NFC there is the Packers vs the Falcons that will be played in Green Bay. This was the match-up we saw last year in the divisional round. The Packers prevailed, and later went on the Superbowl. The Packers, with their team healthy, are going to make it past the Falcons with a little help from their defense: Packers 30, Falcons 20.
In the AFC it will be the Ravens taking on the Patriots. The Patriots, with only two losses all year, and Brady are really going to step up in this one. But I think the Ravens will make big plays on defense that will bring home an AFC Championship: Ravens 27, Patriots 21.
Superbowl XLVI
The long journey, all season these two teams fought to get here. Packers for the second straight time. Ravens for the first time in over 10 years. Both looking for a championship. Both teams have the defense, but the Packers have the more dominant offense with Aaron Rodgers. So, my 2011-2012 Superbowl Champions are the Green Bay Packers by a score of 24 to 17. The MVP is Aaron Rodgers, and the Packers bring the championship back to Green Bay for the second straight year.
Since this has been such a long post, at the beginning of the next blog on Tuesday I will give you guys my selection for the stat leaders. Also, Wednesday I will be releasing my week one fantasy rankings. But until then, don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TheFFAddict, and you can always email me any questions or comments to cshardy@att.net. Also, don't forget to leave a comment on this blog and follow this blog. Thanks!
September 3, 2011
Final Fantasy Football Rankings 2011
QBs
1. Mike Vick
2. Aaron Rodgers
3. Philip Rivers
4. Tom Brady
5. Drew Brees
6. Tony Romo
7. Peyton Manning
8. Ben Roethlisberger
9. Matt Ryan
10. Matt Schaub
11. Josh Freeman
12. Matt Stafford
13. Kyle Orton
14. Joe Flacco
15. Jay Cutler
16. Eli Manning
17. Sam Bradford
18. Matt Cassel
19. Kevin Kolb
20. Colt McCoy
21. Donavan McNabb
22. Ryan Fitzpatrick
23. David Garrard
24. Mark Sanchez
25. Cam Newton
26. Matt Hasselbeck
27. Chad Henne
28. Jason Campbell
29. John Beck
30. Andy Dalton
RBs
1. Adrian Peterson
2. Jamaal Charles
3. Chris Johnson
4. Arian Foster
5. Ray Rice
6. Lesean McCoy
7. Rashard Mendenhall
8. Maurice Jones-Drew
9. Frank Gore
10. Darren McFadden
11. Matt Forte
12. Michael Turner
13. Peyton Hillis
14. Steven Jackson
15. Ahmad Bradshaw
16. Felix Jones
17. LeGarrette Blount
18. Jahvid Best
19. Cedric Benson
20. DeAngelo Williams
21. Mark Ingram
22. Fred Jackson
23. Joseph Addai
24. Shonn Greene
25. Ryan Matthews
26. BenJarvus Green-Ellis
27. Reggie Bush
28. Beanie Wells
29. Johnathan Stewart
30. Ryan Grant
31. Marshawyn Lynch
32. Tim Hightower
33. James Starks
34. Mike Tolbert
35. Brandon Jacobs
36. Willis McGahee
37. CJ Spiller
38. Daniel Thomas
39. Ryan Torain
40. Ladanian Tomlinson
41. Michael Bush
42. LaRod Stephens-Howling
43. Demarco Murray
44. Deji Karim
45. Danny Woodhead
46. Darren Sproles
47. Montario Hardesty
48. Bernard Scott
49. Pierre Thomas
50. Roy Helu
51. Thomas Jones
52. Donald Brown
53. Jerome Harrison
54. Tashard Choice
55. Marion Barber
56. Ricky Williams
57. Ben Tate
58. Justin Forsett
59. Cadillac Williams
60. Kendall Hunter
61. Jason Snelling
62. Delone Carter
63. Mike Goodson
64. Toby Gerhart
WRs
1. Andre Johnson
2. Calvin Johnson
3. Roddy White
4. Larry Fitzgerald
5. Hakeem Nicks
6. Greg Jennings
7. Vincent Jackson
8. Mike Wallace
9. Miles Austin
10. Reggie Wayne
11. Desean Jackson
12. Bradon Lloyd
13. Dwayne Bowe
14. Dez Bryant
15. Jeremy Maclin
16. Santonio Holmes
17. Mike Williams
18. Anquan Boldin
19. Steve Johnson
20. Marques Colston
21. Brandon Marshall
22. Percy Harvin
23. Wes Welker
24. Kenny Britt
25. Mario Manningham
26. Sidney Rice
27. Mike Sims-Walker
28. Jerome Simpson
29. Steve Smith (Car)
30. Pierre Garcon
31. Julio Jones
32. Chad Ochocinco
33. Emanuel Sanders
34. Austin Collie
35. Johnny Knox
36. AJ Green
37. Santana Moss
38. Malcom Floyd
39. Lance Moore
40. Mike Thomas
41. Roy Williams
42. Jacoby Ford
43. Steve Breaston
44. Braylon Edwards
45. Jordy Nelson
46. Andre Roberts
47. Lee Evans
48. Michael Crabtree
49. James Jones
50. Anthony Armstrong
51. Danny Amendola
52. Mike Williams (Sea)
53. Louis Murphy
54. Brian Robiskie
55. Nate Washington
56. Josh Cribbs
57. Robert Meachem
58. Eric Decker
59. Plaxico Burress
60. Hines Ward
61. Jacoby Jones
62. Antonio Brown
63. Kevin Ogletree
64. Eddie Royal
TEs
1. Antonio Gates
2. Jason Witten
3. Dallas Clark
4. Vernon Davis
5. Jermichael Finley
6. Owen Daniels
7. Jimmy Graham
8. Marcedes Lewis
9. Zach Miller
10. Chris Cooley
11. Brandon Pettigrew
12. Dustin Keller
13. Greg Olsen
14. Rob Gronkowski
15. Kellen Winslow
16. Jermaine Gresham
17. Aaron Hernandez
18. Jared Cook
19. Tony Gonzalez
20. Kevin Boss
21. Brent Celek
22. Heath Miller
23. Evan Moore
24. Ben Watson
25. Lance Kendricks
My 2011 NFL predictions will be coming out all week so stay tuned. Thanks for reading!
Follow me on Twitter: @TheFFAddict
September 1, 2011
Overvalued RBs and Undervalued/Overvalued WRs
After weeks of holding out, Chris Johnson signed a contract extension with the Tennessee Titans on Thursday afternoon, ending the most frightful hold out of the off season. The deal was reported to be a four-year, $53.5 million contract, with $30 million guaranteed money. He will not play the final preseason game but is expected to play in week one of the regular season. Obviously a huge break for fantasy owners, especially those in keeper leagues who owned Chris Johnson. I'm sure he won't be 100% ready to go week one because he is not yet in football form, but he should still be fine. I rank him as my third running back still though. If Arian Foster is playing week one (highly unlikely) I would put Johnson at fourth and Foster at three.
| Looks like Chris Johnson is getting some new grills. |
Another guy that is overvalued is Shonn Greene. I really don't expect him to have that much more of a role in the Jets' backfield this year. He is going in the fourth round ahead of guys like Felix Jones, Knowshon Moreno, and Jahvid Best. All of the above are better options then Shonn Greene. Yeah, Greene's role is going to increase, but I don't think he should be drafted over guys who have locked up a starting job. Plus, Greene has had a pretty pathetic preseason. He shows me no reason to be drafting him in the fourth round.
Now we move on to the hardest position to pick players from: the wide receivers. With so much depth and so many players having great preseasons (not that I put a ton of stock into preseason, but I'm just saying that it is a great way to find ) it's a really hard decision as to what guys are going to be true sleepers. I have a lot more deep guys at the wide receiver position than I do at the running back position. I will probably do three undervalued (that's a tough choice to make) and one or two overvalued for the wide receivers.
My first undervalued wide receiver is a really deep sleeper by the name of Brian Robiskie. Sound familiar? Browns receiver. Ring a bell? No? Scored two touchdowns in the last two weeks last year? Here, let me Google that for you: http://lmgtfy.com/?q=Brian+Robiskie. That might help! He is the first wide receiver for the Cleveland Browns. He has had a fair preseason, and finished last season strongly. I think there is going to be a WR that Colt McCoy is going to hook up with all year, and I think that guy is going to be Brian Robiskie. A second guy? A deep sleeper TE Evan Moore. He is also having a good preseason.
| Robiskie may just be my deepest sleeper for this year. |
| Don't worry Jerome, you won't miss him much. |
Although there are a lot more sleeper WRs that I like (Darius Heyward-Bey, Anthony Armstrong, Michael Jenkins), I think we should move on to overvalued WRs. I am just going to real quickly run over a few guys I don't like for where you have to take them in the draft. Plaxico Burress is going way to high for me to take him right now. His ADP is in the eighth round ahead of Sidney Rice, Santana Moss, AJ Green, and Steve Smith from Carolina. I think Burress has upside, but only to a certain extent. Taking him in the eighth round with all of those guys on the board is absolute ridiculous. I wouldn't take Burress until around the 11th round in my draft.
My second and last overvalued WR is Vincent Jackson. Jackson is going in the mid second round right now ahead of Greg Jennings, Hakeem Nicks, and Mike Wallace. I think people are too high on this guy. I know he is very talented but you can't forget that Rivers has a top TE (Antonio Gates), Malcom Floyd, and a receiving running back (Ryan Matthews) who can all catch the ball. People are drafting Jackson way too high right now, and for no real reason.
That is all for my running backs and wide receivers. Come back Saturday for my rankings. Next week will be all about NFL predictions and other things. Not much fantasy except for overvalued and undervalued TEs. All of you drafting this weekend good luck with your draft and I hope to see you back next week, Until then you can follow me on Twitter @TheFFAddict: Link: http://twitter.com/#!/theffaddict.
All average draft positions are based on a ten man, non PPR, standard scoring league at fantasyfootballcalculator.com.
August 31, 2011
Overvalued QBs and Undervalued RBs
The story that every fantasy owner seems to be fretting about is Arian Foster's hamstring. ESPN's John Clayton said he is expected to miss 3-4 weeks because in the MRI there was a small tear. Before you go drop James Starks and go get Ben Tate let me tell you: this is not as serious as the media and others are making it. Arian Foster is still not taking it seriously and thinks he will play in week one. He might not be full health but he should be 90% for week two. Even if you are going to pick some one up, I'm not sure you want to grab Ben Tate. Many people around the Texans think that Derrick Ward will be the guy in Houston if Foster misses a game despite Tate's great preseason. I would stay away from the Houston backfield completely in week one. In the long run, if Foster performs like last year, he will still be far ahead (fantasy points wise) of any running back at the end of the year, even with sitting out a game or two. Don't worry about this injury; if Arian himself isn't taking it seriously (check out his twitter) then neither should you.
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| Arian Foster went down with a hamstring injury in Saturday's game. It was later found to be a small tear. |
Another rather small story out Jacksonville: after Rashad Jenning's knee sprain in the Jaguars game on Saturday, he was seen at Tuesday's practice on crutches. So unfortunate for the Jaguars because right as Maurice Jones-Drew is ready to go, Jennings goes down. There is not much news on Jennings but if he is to miss a game (he will miss the final preseason game) then Deji Karim will be the Jaguars backup running back.
| Rashad Jenning (knee) was seen on crutches on Tuesday. |
| I'd rather let someone else take Kevin Kolb in the 11th/12th rounds. |
My second guy is Reggie Bush. People are worried about injury concerns, I know, I know; but this guy is very explosive and if he stays healthy I think he will have 1,500+ all purpose yards., mark my works. The guy has looked great in preseason and I think he has found new life in Miami. He is being drafted in the eighth round right now, I think that is about right, but a lot of the time you can wait and grab him in the ninth or tenth rounds. That being said, do not go off and draft him in the sixth or seventh round like some people do because of the name. If you use a pick like that you put your trust that he will not get injured, and, well, that is just plain stupid.
But you know what's not stupide final round? Grabbing a deep sleeper at RB in ths of your draft. The guy I'm grabbing? It has to be LaRod Stephens-Howling. He is going to be backup to an injury machine, Beanie Wells. LaRod can catch the ball better than Beanie meaning he is going to find time on the field for that, but it's not just his pass receiving skills. We have seen Beanie get benched by Coach Ken Whisenhunt in the past. Of course, it wasn't for Stephens-Howling, but it does tell you that Beanie could get benched sometime before this season is over. I would be taking Stephens-Howling in the third to last round before you grab your defense or kicker.
Hope you guys enjoyed. Come back tomorrow for my overvalued RBs and my undervalued WRs. Until then you can follow me on Twitter: @TheFFAddict. Thanks for reading!
August 29, 2011
2011 Fantasy Football: Quarterback Sleepers
My first undervalued quarterback for 2011 is Sam Bradford. The first overall pick in last year's draft, had a nice rookie campaign despite his 76.5 quarterback rating. Even with #1 wide receiver Donnie Avery out for the year, he spread the ball around and reminded many people of a young Peyton Manning (I was one of them). But this year he is going to be even better, in my opinion. He now has more targets, as well as a year under his belt and an entire training camp to learn the new offense. Bradford now has an extra addition to the team Mike Sims-Walker, he made Danny Amdendola a somebody last year, and now has Donnie Avery back in the mix. I wouldn't be surprised if the kid throws for over 4,000 yards this season.
Another good, undervalued pick that people are starting to scavenge is Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford. He has become everyone's new fantasy sleeper. Stafford went from being drafted in the 11th round in fantasy drafts to the 9th round since May 8th and is still on the rise. While I still don't trust him as a starter quite yet, I do think he is a very strong backup. Although he was injured the majority of the 2010 campaign, Stafford showed some immense talent in the games that he played. Of course, Calvin Johnson, Nate Burleson, Titus Young, and a much improved Maurice Stovall won't hurt his talent. Look for Stafford to finish among the top 10 QBs in fantasy points this year, and on some teams, be a started byt eh end of the year. Although I like him a lot, if you grab an elite QB in your draft you should sell high on Stafford in the regular season and get another RB/WR. He is known to get injured often, and if he has the hot hand and you've got back up then sell high on him.
One last undervalued guy (this one should be short and sweet) is Kyle Orton. I don't see why he goes so late in drafts this year. Broncos have been prominent that Orton will be the starter in Denver, Tebow has dropped to the third string role according to Pro Football Talk, and Brady Quinn is Brady Quinn. This guy's team has remained the same with the exception of losing some minor receivers to the Redskins. But to level that out, Orton has a healthy Moreno that has great pass-catching ability. In a 10 man league on fantasyfootballcalculator.com, Orton's average draft position (ADP) is in the 13th round after guys like Cassel, Kolb, and Bradford. This guy had a great season in Denver last year and I guess I don't see why people are so down on him this year.
Now my deep sleeper that was my sleeper even before the preseason is Colt McCoy. McCoy has been moving up many fantasy owners' draft board because of his excellent performances since the first preseason game. I have liked this guy ever since he joined the NFL and started believing in him even more when he became the starter and lit it up at the end of last season. I'm not saying you should expect 4,000 yards from this guy, but you can usually grab him in the last few rounds of your draft and I think that will be great value for a backup quarterback that has full potential (see 2010) of becoming a top fantasy quarterback.
That concludes my quarterback sleepers article, come back tomorrow for some overvalued quarterbacks and some undervalued running backs. Until then, you can follow me on Twitter: http://twitter.com/#!/theffaddict or email me at cshardy@att.net.
Note: All ADPs the writer will be using in this series of undervalued and overvalued players will be taken from fantasyfootballcalculator.com and you can check them out here: http://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp.php
August 28, 2011
2011 Second Fantasy Football Rankings
QBs
1. Mike Vick
2. Aaron Rodgers
3. Tom Brady
4. Philip Rivers
5. Drew Brees
6. Tony Romo
7. Peyton Manning
8. Matt Schaub
9. Matt Ryan
10. Josh Freeman
11. Ben Roetlisberger
12. Kyle Orton
13. Matt Stafford
14. Joe Flacco
15. Matt Cassel
16. Jay Cutler
17. Eli Manning
18. Sam Bradford
19. Kevin Kolb
20. Colt McCoy
21. Donavan McNabb
22. Cam Newton
23. David Garrard
24. Ryan Fitzpatrick
25. Mark Sanchez
26. Jason Campbell
27. Matt Hasselbeck
28. John Beck
29. Tavaris Jackson
30. Chad Henne
RBs
1. Adrian Peterson
2. Arian Foster
3. Jamaal Charles
4. Chris Johnson
5. Ray Rice
6. Lesean McCoy
7. Rashard Mendenhall
8. Frank Gore
9. Maurice Jones-Drew
10. Michael Turner
11. Matt Forte
12. Darren McFadden
13. Steven Jackson
14. Knowshon Moreno
15. Peyton Hillis
16. Ahmad Bradshaw
17. LeGarrette Blount
18. Cedric Benson
19. Felix Jones
20. DeAngelo Williams
21. Jahvid Best
22. Shonn Greene
23. Johnathan Stewart
24. Fred Jackson
25. Mark Ingram
26. BenJarvus Green-Ellis
27. Ryan Mathews
28. Reggie Bush
29. Beanie Wells
30. Joseph Addai
31. James Starks
32. Marshawyn Lynch
33. Tim Hightower
34. Ryan Grant
35. Mike Tolbert
36. Ryan Torain
37. DanielThomas
38. Pierre Thomas
39. Brandon Jacobs
40. CJ Spiller
41. Ladanian Tomlinson
42. Tashard Choice
43. Michael Bush
44. Willis McGahee
45. Darren Sproles
46. Jerome Harrison
47. Bernard Scott
48. Danny Woodhead
49. Rashad Jennings
50. Ben Tate
51. Montario Hardesty
52. Javon Ringer
53. Thomas Jones
54. Marion Barber
55. Roy Helu
56. Ronnie Brown
57. Jaimie Harper
58. Leon Washington
59. Larod Stepens-Howling
60. Mike Goodson
61. Delone Carter
62. Demarco Murray
63. Jacquizz Rodgers
64. Ricky Williams
WRs
1.Andre Johnson
2. Calvin Johnson
3. Roddy White
4. Larry Fitzgerald
5. Greg Jennings
6. Hakeem Nicks
7. Mike Wallace
8. Vincent Jackson
9. Miles Austin
10. Reggie Wayne
11. Brandon Lloyd
12. Desean Jackson
13. Dwayne Bowe
14. Santonio Holmes
15. Dez Bryant
16. Mike Williams
17. Anquan Boldin
18. Jeremy Maclin
19. Marques Colston
20. Steve Johnson
21. Brandon Marshall
22. Wes Welker
23. Percy Harvin
24. Sidney Rice
25. Pierre Garcon
26. Mario Manningham
27. Steve Smtih (Car)
28. Kenny Britt
29. Julio Jones
30. Austin Collie
31. Santana Moss
32. AJ Green
33. Johnny Knox
34. Chad Ochocinco
35. Malcom Floyd
36. Jerome Simpson
37. Mike Sims-Walker
38. Mike Thomas
39. Braylon Edwards
40. Emanuel Sanders
41. Roy Williams
42. Lance Moore
43. Michael Crabtree
44. Lee Evans
45. Anthony Armstrong
46. Jordy Nelson
47. Davone Bess
48. Jacoby Ford
49. Steve Breaston
50. Robert Meachem
51. Mike Williams
52. Louis Murphy
53. Andre Roberts
54. Josh Cribbs
55. James Jones
56. Plaxico Burress
57. Darius Heyward-Bey
58. Michael Jenkins
59. Danny Amendola
60. Nate Burleson
61. Jacoby Jones
62. Brian Robiskie
63. Leonard Hankerson
64. Hines Ward
TEs
1. Antonio Gates
2. Jason Witten
3. Dallas Clark
4. Vernon Davis
5. Jermichael Finley
6. Owen Daniels
7. Jimmy Graham
8. Marcedes Lewis
9. Zach Miller
10. Chris Cooley
11. Greg Olsen
12. Brandon Pettigrew
13. Kellen Winslow
14. Jermaine Gresham
15. Dustin Keller
16. Rob Gronkowski
17. Brent Celek
18. Tony Moeaki
19. Aaron Hernandez
20.Todd Heap
21. Jared Cook
22. Ed Dickson
23. Ben Watson
24. Kevin Boss
25. Heath Miller
D/ST
1. Steelers
2. Eagles
3. Packers
4. Jets
5. Ravens
6. Bears
7. Falcons
8. Chargers
9. Giants
10. Saints
11. Patriots
12. Buccaneers
13. Lions
14. Chiefs
15. Cowboys
16. 49ers
17. Rams
18. Titans
19. Cardinals
20. Vikings
K
1. Sebastian Janikowski
2. Nate Kaeding
3. Stephen Gostowski
4. Rob Bironas
5. Dan Carpenter
6. David Akers
7. Matt Prater
8. Alex Henery
9. Matt Bryant
10. Garrett Hartley
11. Josh Brown
12. Neil Rackers
13. Nick Folk
14. Mason Crosby
15. Ryan Succop
16. Adam Vinatieri
17. Robbie Gould
18. Josh Scobee
19. Jay Feely
20. Ryan Longwell
Thanks for reading. I will post again tonight or tomorrow about sleepers, and another batch of rankings will be up next weekend. Good luck drafting!
August 25, 2011
Thursday, August 25th, 2011 NFL Fantasy Football Wrap-Up
Week three of preseason football has kicked off and I'm prepared to tell you, readers, two players that caught my eye on Thursday night in the first batch of week three preseason games. I will most likely run through a couple of players in each game that caught my eye that may affect your draft, but only after we check out some of the news from the NFL.
There wasn't any major news from the National Football League today, but there was some notable news, and to kick it all off let's shift to Julio Jones. Jones has made a huge impact on me in all of camp, and he is making impressions on his coaches and front office too. Falcons GM Thomas Dimitroff was very positive about his performance and Dimitroff emphasized that Jones is "very focused" and "very competitive". Seeing that his team likes him makes me think more passes will be flying his way. I will continue to move him up my rankings until the start of the season.
Now for my news that has little to no fantasy value, and that is rookie QB Terrelle Pryor signed with the Raiders on Thursday evening, three days after being drafted by the Raiders in the third round of the supplemental draft. "Pryor receives a $586,000 signing bonus, and a base salary of $375,000 (pre-suspension). In 2012, he’ll earn $485,000, and he’s eligible to earn a $20,300 incentive based on playing time. In 2013, the salary is $595,000 with a $40,700 play-time incentive. In 2014, the salary moves to $645,000, with a $61,100 play-time incentive," According to ProFootballTalk.com. Although it is unlikely, I could see Pryor seeing some time on the field this year considering that Campbell was benched for Gradkowski in multiple games last year.
Time to move on to the preseason games now, and the first of three games on Thursday night was in Carolina where we had the Bengals defeating the Panthers by a final of 24-13. As expected, or at least as I expected, Cam Newton couldn't throw the ball. He went a measly 6-19 with a mere 75 yards, but there was a good part of his performance: his athletic ability on the ground. He scrambled for 49 yards as well as the Panthers only TD of the game. But the away team was much more impressive. Cedric Benson was fed the ball 16 times and he seemed to do well with it as he rushed for 68 yards and a TD. Bernard Scott got involved too, going six for 63 and a TD. Then in the air, Dalton had a much better game, including a 40 yard pass that went to rookie AJ Green for a TD. Obviously I liked to see Andy Dalton bounce back from his bad performance last week; it shows that Simpson, Benson, and Green can prevail with Dalton under center. I also saw my sleeper tight end Gresham getting five targets, as well as four receptions and 49 yards. Carolina looked pure ugly if you ask me. Newton is not going to lead this team to anything special if he can't figure out away to be more of a pocket passer. Not looking like a bright future for the Panthers.
Speaking of bright futures, you have the "Dream Team" Philadelphia Eagles. They have looked absolutely awful this far into the preseason, and Thursday night was no better. Vick is not getting the time to throw the ball and he is getting knocked down way too much. It is just a matter of time before a hard hit injures him and sidelines him for the entire season. Eagles are going to have to solve this offensive line problem if they want to get anywhere and it looks really bad right now. But let's move on to fantasy value of players. McCoy had himself a nice game in the passing game (Vick had to dump it off all night because he was getting flushed out of the pocket so much) but he had a terrible game on the ground. He went 6 for 12 on the ground while his teammate Ronnie Brown went 6 for 41 with a very nice 13 yard touchdown. McCoy had nine targets in the air, three times more than anyone else in the Eagles receiving corps if you would like to take note of that for a PPR league. But on the Browns side of the ball, Colt McCoy had his first ugly game of the preseason. He went 9/18 with one interception and a 41.2 quarterback rating. Included in there was my very deep sleeper who grabbed three catches on four targets for 23 yards, Brian Robiskie. In my opinion that is a big step for Robiskie, and it says that McCoy wants to throw the ball to this guy and I have a lot of faith in him this year, even more than Josh Cribbs (as seen in my rankings).
The final game of the night was on ESPN and it was the Ravens taking on the Redskins. The one thing that really stuck to me in this game was Ray Rice getting some carries at the goaline. In the second quarter after getting stuffed at the one yard line, he ran one in from two yards out. Obviously this was something that a lot of fantasy owners are worried about, but I think it becomes less of a concern with this game under his belt. Granted, one good game can not convince most fantasy owners, and I realize that, but for me I feel like I can trust him more after this game. Enough of Ray Rice, I can't forget about my bromance with Anquan Boldin, who also had a good game. Boldin went 5 for 73 with a TD catch in the third quarter; that really impresses me. Lee Evans also had himself a nice game, 3 for 60 with a TD. I think Evans only helps Boldin, as I have pointed out before in my precious posts. Evans will take a safety off the top and leave breathing room for Boldin unlike last year where you had Mason playing opposite Boldin, and two receivers with the same skill set cannot play opposite of each other. I also really liked what I saw from Tyrod Taylor, the Ravens rookie backup quarterback. He seemed to play just like a younger Michael Vick. He knew when to throw and stay in the pocket but also knew when to tuck and run. I think we will see him be successful one day in the NFL. But on the other side of the field, Redskins had some really nice looking possessions too. John Beck still looks like the better QB for the Redskins, and pretty obviously to me. Of course, I am not seeing the practices, but in games in just seems like Beck is going to lead this team better. Hightower, a guy that is also climbing up my rankings, went 9 for 56, and his second game with a run over 30 yards.
That finishes up the recap for this Thursday. Look for my rankings on Saturday. But until then you can follow me on Twitter @TheFFAddict or feel free to email me, cshardy@att.net. Thanks for reading!
Just a little side note here: Next week I will do over-valued and under-valued players all week at every position as well as the news, so look for that.
August 24, 2011
Wednesday, August 24th, 2011 NFL Fantasy Football Wrap-Up
Today was a busy (but certainly not hectic) day in the NFL, from Kerry Collins to Orlando Scandrick, I'm going to wrap it all up and put into a fantasy football owner's perspective for you. Furthermore, let's look at the biggest moves as this Hump Day comes to an end.
Let's start off with Peyton Manning injury saga. And let me start by saying, unless you live under a rock, you probably know that Peyton Manning had neck surgery in the offseason. With him being a question mark for week one, the Colts went out and signed Kerry Collins out of retirement. Now this flashes obvious signs that Manning may not be ready for week one, and possibly even more. It all depends how the nerve in the neck repairs, there is really no timeline for that kind of injury.
Now before we move on through this saga, we need to get one thing straight; even if Peyton Manning does come back week one he probably won't be ready to hit an NFL field. He could be out of shape, and out of sync. In fantasy drafts, he is usually going around the third and fourth rounds. I think this is a ridiculous place to draft him. I mean he has all of the weapons around him, including his favorite target Dallas Clark (fresh off a season-ending wrist injury), but if they guy hasn't played football in months I would rather take guys like Phillip Rivers (who often goes later than Manning) who has Vincent Jackson back for the entire season. Or maybe even Tony Romo who is a fantasy star when he is healthy (majority of the time he is). I wouldn't take Manning until the late fifth round, where, in most drafts, he is already gone
Now after that you have to ask yourself,"Do I downgrade all of my Colts players in my rankings?" And the answer is no. Not yet atleast. I mean, until the season gets closer you aren't going to know if this nerve is going to heal in time or not. Granted, Manning is the Colts and they look pitiful in the preseason without him, but downgrading Colts players is ridiculous at this point because Manning still has that chance that he could play week one. Like I said before, even if Manning is back, I wouldn't expect him to have a stellar performance. Eventually (probably just days from the season) we will have more news on Manning to judge all of the Colts fantasy players. For now, if you want my opinion, I would just stay put and wait it out. Maybe try trading Colts players if you have already drafted. But look, the fantasy value of these players will not decrease that drastically. After all, his last name is still Manning.
Enough Manning Injury Saga talk: let's move on to Saints offensive guard Carl Nicks who injured his knee in Saturday night's game. It first appeared Nicks had a knee contusion and it continued bothering Nicks on Monday. The Saints decided to take him in for further tests but the tests came back negative. Coach Sean Payton said he will be sidelined for a week but he should be back in practice next week. This will obviously hurt the Saint's run game if this injury continues into the regular season, although that is highly unlikely.
Another Saint is experiencing some difficulty with his knee, but this time it was no offensive lineman this time, it was rookie running back Mark Ingram. He had some swelling in his knee on Tuesday. Payton said Ingram should be sidelined for a couple days, meaning that it shouldn't cause problems in the future for the young back.
And my last news story, which I like to call my "Not so Important Fantasy News but Still Big News" segment, is Cowboys corner Orlando Scandrick getting a five-year, worth $27 million including $10 million guaranteed. Rob Ryan is said to have love the guy, and the Cowboys think they have a top three Nickel formation corner in the NFL. Newman is always injured so you can expect to see Scandrick a lot this year with the love from management and the oppotunities he will get.
Thanks for reading. Just for the heads up: I will be doing a daily recap, with all of the biggest NFL news. There will be one one Monday, Tuesdays, Wednesdays, Thursdays, and Sundays. Every Friday or Saturday I will repost my rankings. So check back every night to get your fix of fantasy news. You can also find me on Twitter, just tweet any fantasy questions you have to @TheFFAddict, and I will get back to you as quickly as possible.
August 23, 2011
Week 2 Preseason News and Notes
August 15, 2011
Why Chris Johnson is not a top 3 pick
But what do these guys have that Chris Johnson don't? Consistency. The ultimate key to fantasy football.
Peterson dipped under seven points only one time the entire season when he was active (he sat out one game). Arian Foster? Also only two times. Jamaal Charles? Twice. All of these guys beat "CJ1.3K" in fantasy points. How many games did Chris Johnson drop under seven points last year? Six. Three times more than any of the other top four running backs.
Do you really want your first round pick to be that inconsistent? To go along with that, Chris Johnson may be a hold out despite Titans GM Mike Reinfeldt stating he will be the highest paid RB in the league if he reports to camp. That's another risk I don't want to take on this guy with my first round pick.
You don't want to base it all on inconsistency? Well Foster, Peterson, and Charles all had more overall fantasy points last year then Chris Johnson. Although sharing with Thomas Jones, Charles still finished with 100 more rushing yards than Chris Johnson, who had no one to compete with in the Titans backfield. To go with the Charles argument, he had 45 receptions (one more than Chris Johnson) and averaged over 10 yards per reception, while Chris Johnson averaged 5.6 yards. Not to mention that Arian Foster beat both of these guys by over 20 receptions finishing the season with 66, averaging over nine yards on each reception.
One big thing that was going for Charles last year was his incredible, near record breaking, 6.4 yards per carry. Adrian Peterson averaged 4.6 YPC, and Foster averaged 4.9. Chris Johnson averaged his worst of his career, a measly 4.3 YPC.
Then my last piece of evidence is the ugly quarterback situation in Tennessee. Matt Hasselbeck is the starting QB in Tennessee after an off-season acquisition. It is a better situation for Johnson than last year, but not nearly good enough. But if defenses aren't already putting 8 in the box against Chris Johnson, then they will be if Hasselbeck goes down and Jake Locker is under center. Once rookie quarterback Jake Locker is in the game, defenses will absolutely come for Johnson by putting eight in the box all the time. Let's look at the one game that Rusty Smith started last year. Chris Johnson had his worst game of the year going seven for five with a big goose egg for fantasy points.
I know you can argue against the situation in Minnesota too. I do think that could cause Adrian Peterson trouble too, but if he can stay healthy then he is an all-purpose back and can get through a tough QB situation, as you have seen in the past.
All of this is why you, as an educated fantasy scholar, should not draft Chris Johnson with a top three pick in the draft.
August 14, 2011
My First 2011 Fantasy Football Rankings
Rankings based on a Non-PPR, standard ESPN.com league.
QBs
1. Mike Vick
2. Aaron Rodgers
3. Tom Brady
4. Drew Brees
5. Philip Rivers
6. Peyton Manning
7. Tony Romo
8. Matt Ryan
9. Matt Schaub
10. Josh Freeman
11. Ben Roethlisberger
12. Kyle Orton
13. Matt Stafford
14. Joe Flacco
15. Eli Manning
16. Jay Cutler
17. Matt Cassel
18. Sam Bradford
19. Kevin Kolb
20. Donovan McNabb
21. David Garrard
22. Colt McCoy
23. Mark Sanchez
24. Andy Dalton
25. Matt Hasselbeck
RBs
1. Adrian Peterson
2. Jamaal Charles
3. Arian Foster
4. Chris Johnson
5. Lesean McCoy
6. Ray Rice
7. Frank Gore
8. Maurice Jones-Drew
9. Rashard Mendenhall
10. Matt Forte
11. Darren McFadden
12. Michael Turner
13.Knowshow Moreno
14. Peyton Hillis
15. Steven Jackson
16. Ahmad Bradshaw
17. LeGarrette Blount
18. DeAngelo Williams
19. Jahvid Best
20. Cedric Benson
21. Felix Jones
22. Shonn Greene
23. Fred Jackson
24. Mark Ingram
25. Johnathan Stewart
26. Ryan Matthews
27. BenJarvus Green-Ellis
28. Joseph Addai
29. James Starks
30. Reggie Bush
31. Ryan Grant
32. Marshawn Lynch
33. Daniel Thomas
34. Ryan Torain
35. Beanie Wells
36. Ryan Williams
37. Mike Tolbert
38. Pierre Thomas
39. CJ Spiller
40. Darren Sproles
41. Michael Bush
42. Ladanian Tomlinson
43. Rashad Jennings
44. Montario Hardesty
45. Justin Forsett
46. Brandon Jacobs
47. Ben Tate
48. Tim Hightower
49. Demarco Murray
50. Danny Woodhead
51. Willis McGahee
52. Thomas jones
53. Roy Helu
54. Bernard Scott
55. Jerome Harrison
56. Donald Brown
57. Ronnie Brown
58. Marion Barber
59. Tashard Choice
60. Ricky Williams
61. Mike Goodson
62. Cadillac Williams
63. Tody Gerhart
64. Jason Snelling
WRs
1. Andre Johnson
2. Calvin Johnson
3. RoddyWhite
4. Larry Fitzgerald
5. Hakeem Nicks
6. Greg Jennings
7. Mike Wallace
8. Reggie Wayne
9. Vincent Jackson
10. Miles Austin
11. Brandon Lloyd
12. Desean Jackson
13. Dwayne Bowe
14. Santonio Holmes
15. Dez Bryant
16. Mike Williams
17. Marques Colston
18. Steve Johnson
19. Anquan Boldin
20. Percy Harvin
21. Wes Welker
22. Jeremy Maclin
23. Kenny Britt
24. Mario Manningham
25. Brandon Marshall
26. Sidney Rice
27. Pierre Garcon
28. Steve Smith (Car)
29. Julio Jones
30. Mike Sims-Walker
31. AJ Green
32. Jerome Simpson
33. Roy Williams (Chi)
34. Chad Ochocinco
35. Johnny Knox
36. Emmanuel Sanders
37. Macom Floyd
38. Austin Collie
39. Mike Thomas
40. Santana Moss
41. Lance Moore
42. Mike Thomas
43. Michael Crabtree
44. Jordy Nelson
45. Louis Murphy
46. Steve Breaston
47. Braylon Edwards
48. James Jones
49. Lee Evans
50. Jacoby Ford
51. Anthony Armstrong
52. Robert Meachem
53. Josh Cribbs
54. Mike Williams (Sea)
55. Josh Morgan
56. Arrelious Benn
57. Jordan Shipley
58. Titus Young
59. Plaxico Burress
60. Jacoby Jones
61. Demaryius Thomas
62. Nate Washington
63. Eddie Royal
64. Randy Moss
TEs
1. Antonio Gates
2. Jason Witten
3. Dallas Clark
4. Vernon Davis
5. Jermichael Finley
6. Owen Daniels
7. Jimmy Graham
8. Marcedes Lewis
9. Chris Cooley
10. Zach Miller
11. Brandon Pettigrew
12. Greg Olsen
13. Dustin Keller
14. Kellen Winslow
15. Rob Gronkowski
16. Jermaine Gresham
17. Tony Moeaki
18. Jared Cook
19. Todd Heap
20. Aaron Hernandez
D/ST
1. Steelers
2. Packers
3. Eagles
4. Jets
5. Ravens
6. Bears
7. Falcons
8. Patriots
9. Giants
10. Chargers
11. Saints
12. Lions
13. Chiefs
14. Bucs
15. 49ers
16. Cardinals
17. Rams
18. Dolphins
19. Browns
20. Vikings
Thanks for reading. After the preseason I will post a new set of rankings. Leave questions and comments down below. Thanks!
