Week 4 Pickups

By: Gabriel Harber

It was business as usual this week in the NFL.  The Bolts edged out the Chiefs in a close one, the Colts took the Steelers down to the wire, and Tom Brady tossed 4 INT's. Wait...What!?

If week 3 left you scratching your head, don't worry, you're not alone. If you are looking for that one waiver wire pick up that is going to give you a W in week 4? That's what we're here for.

Antonio Brown:  This one is born of necessity more than anything else.  Anyone who watched Sunday's game against the Colts knows the offensive line has more holes in it than Kesha's clothing.  With the running game being non-existent, and Big Ben under constant pressure, the slot receievers stand to benefit a great deal.  Brown did, with a team high 8 targets.   He is also a great punt returner, so if your league uses return yardage, fire away.

Dane Sanzenbacher:  This one is more of a gut call than anything else, but when you go from relative unknown to catching TD passes in back-to-back weeks, you're bound to turn some heads.  It's been a long time since Chicago fans had a receiver to be excited about, and with Johnny Knox panning out as extraordinarily average, there is room for someone to steal the show.  Sanzenbacher may just end up being that guy.  It's worth noting that he had 5 catches on 7 targets.  If your league is PPR, you want to keep a close eye on him; think shades of Wes Welker.

Brandon Gibson:  Gibson has posted three weeks with respectable yardage totals, and even found the end zone this weekend.  Bradford clearly trusts him, and with the intermittent success he experienced in 2010, he could very well be stepping it up for real this time.

Jason Campbell:  Don't be fooled, the only reason he put up a stinker this weekend is because everyone in California got to sit back and watch the McFadden show.  With emerging weapons in Denarius Moore and Jacoby Ford, and a two-headed monster in the backfield, Campbell has all the tools to work with he never had in Washington.  I'm sold.

Torrey Smith: He caught a long TD pass.  Then he caught another one, but for less yardage.  Then it happened again for less yardage.  Then he starts catching passes that aren't even for touchdowns.  I'm really concerned about the downward trend with this guy.......All jokes aside, a lot of people are down on this kid and I can't for the life of me tell why.  The Ravens have matchups against soft pass defenses for most of the season, and Lee Evans sure wasn't producing like this when he was on the field.  It will be interesting to see what happens from here on out, but I can't see the Ravens sitting idly on his talent.

Denarius Moore:  Darrius Heyward-Bey was back and guess what?  Moore thoroughly outplayed him, just as predicted, despite being listed behind him on the depth chart.  McFadden clearly stole the show, but Moore still had 6 targets and a rushing touchdown.  The score was particularly interesting given it was on a run, proving that the Raiders are committed to getting the ball to their playmakers any way possible.

David Nelson/Donald Jones:  As long as Buffalo's offense continues putting up numbers, these guys are worth a flier.  Nelson is a pass-catching monster, but he may already be gone.  Jones is a sneaky flex play in deeper leagues.

Kendall Hunter:  Hunter got most of the workload when Gore went down, and even flashed some brilliance.  With the 49ers looking for any way to generate offense, and Gore averaging only 2.51 yards per carry, Hunter will be given his fair shake.  If Gore can't go this weekend, Hunter is a must add against the Eagles putrid run defense.

Daniel Thomas: This one is a long shot, but I see Thomas still sitting on wires in quite a few leagues.  If you happen to be in one, burn that waiver priority right now!  This guy has all the makings to be the real deal, and it looks like the Dolphins have finally figured out that not only is Reggie Bush not a feature back, he's not even a running back.

Montario Hardesty: Every Hillis owner should be taking note as Hardesty didn't look that bad against a stout Miami run defense.  If Hillis goes down or begins wearing out, Hardesty would be up for an expanded role.  The 4.8 yards per carry was most impressive.

Eric Decker: Decker didn't post the eye popping numbers he did the week before, but still had 12 targets.  I'm willing to chalk this one up to the Titans secondary and as long as the Broncos are committed to feeding him, he remains a viable option.

Brandon Pettigrew/Titus Young:  While defensive coordinators everywhere draw up triple teams to slow Megatron down (hint: it won't work), the rest of the field is becoming wide open for Stafford and crew.  Pettigrew posted a huge game while Young had a fine game to the tune of 8 targets.  As long as the Motor City Massacre (my name for the Lions offense) continues on this pace, both are intriguing options.

James Casey: Super sneaky sleeper here.  Casey exploded from nowhere onto the scene Sunday and was a nightmare for the Saints defense.  He lined up at running back, wide receiver, and tight end, creating matchup problems all day.  Because of his flexibility and knack for getting open, I believe the Texans will be looking for more ways to get him the ball.

Victor Cruz: This one's tough because on one hand, he did have 2 TD's, but on the other hand he only 3 receptions on 5 targets.  For now I say monitor the status of Manningham and Nicks.  If they're out, Cruz makes a decent flex play.

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Gabe is the newest addition to TheFFAddict.com. He will be writing a pickup article every week so check that out. You can also shoot him any questions on Twitter and you can also check out his blog.

Week One NFL Game Picks

Us fans have been through a near detrimental lockout, an agonizing off-season, and a frustrating wait, but Thursday we got back to football. The words we have been waiting to hear for seven months: back to football. Oh, the sweet sound. Every fan making their picks, setting their line ups, scanning the waiver wire, asking the fantasy gods their start/sit questions, but now it is a reality. Sunday is the day. I have done almost all of that. I sit here and rank my players time and time again, pick who I would start/sit, and just talk about football. But now I have one last thing to do before football gets to a start: make my picks. I know I missed one game already, but with the Packers being my Superbowl pick I figured that you guys might now that I was going with the Pack.

Now that that game is in the past we can move on to Sunday. I'm going to give you my pick for every game, including my pick with the line, and the O/U. Not only that but I will also post the score and the fantasy impact in every game.


Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens

You've gotta start your studs in week one

ESPN Preview
CBS - 1:00 PM EST
Line: Ravens by 1
Over/Under: 36
My Preview: I think the Ravens win this one although I have the Steelers winning the North. If Ravens can prevent turnovers then I think they will prevail, and I would take them with the spread too. I'm going to take the under on this game. The Steelers and Ravens always play very tight low scoring games, I would expect a little less than 36.
Fantasy Impact- I wouldn't like to have either one of these QBs this week, most people usually have better options. As for the running backs, I think everyone needs to start their studs and stop worrying about the bad match up. My sleeper for this game is Emanuel Sanders. I think he is going to find some holes in the defense and have a nice game. Also, those worried about Boldin, forget about it. He is still a decent flex play this week.
Prediction: Ravens 20, Steelers 13


Detroit Lions @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
ESPN Preview
FOX - 1:00 PM EST
Line: Buccaneers by 1
Over/Under: 41
My Preview: Believe it or not, this (in some people's minds) is a playoff match up. Neither one of these teams weren't in my playoffs, but I think both are very solid contenders. The Lions have a healthy Matthew Stafford, and for the Bucs it's another year of experience for quarterback Josh Freeman. This should be a good offense game, and I am going to go against the line and say that the Lions win this one. I think their offense is going to really impress a lot of people. I will also take the over on 41. Lions 30 - Buccaneers 24

Matthew Stafford is healthy, and ready to roll.

Fantasy Impact- Look for both QBs to have a nice one in this game, but I think Stafford will fare better than Freeman. For RBs, I like Blount a lot this week. He is a guy I will be watching to see if he is the workhorse that many have said that he may be. For the wide receivers you are obviously starting Megatron. In a deeper league I think Burleson could be interesting this week. Williams is a solid WR2 this week too, but I will be keeping my eye on Benn to see what kind of role he plays in this offense. As for the TE's, both are pretty good plays.


Atlanta Falcons @ Chicago Bears
ESPN Preview 
FOX - 1:00 PM EST
Line: Falcons by 2.5
Over/Under: 40.5

Matt Forte is a must start in all fantasy football formats this week

My Preview: This game consists of two playoff teams from 2010. Both teams had a first round bye in the playoffs, and the Bears hosted the NFC Championship in that loss to the Green Bay Packers. The Bears might be a little bit underrated in this match up, just like they were all of last year. I think Bears will have a solid outing in this game, but I'm going to go with Matty Ice in this one. I'll take the Falcons with and without the spread. I will go under on the over/under.
Fantasy Impact:  Matt Ryan should be a good fantasy option for this game, but Jay cutler might not. Both teams have good defenses, but are better in the rushing/pass rush game and don't have strong secondaries. I don't think I am starting any Bears WRs, while I would start Roddy White and possibly Julio Jones in the flex in a deep league. I'm starting both RBs. Barber may be held out of this games, which guarantees goal line carries for Forte, and a heavy load. I really like Forte this week. Neither TE should be in your starting lineup.
Predictions:  Falcons 24 - Bears 16

Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City
ESPN Preview
CBS - 1:00 PM EST
Line: Chiefs by 5.5
Over/Under: 40

Charles had a great game against the Bills last year

My Preview: Bills may not be there ye, but they are rising. I think they will compete in nearly every game this year, and also have a fair record. Kansas City is going to have to beat San Diego for the division and they need a strong start. Cassel says he will play this game. I think Bills are going to hang in this game until the end just like they did all of last year. Charles will end up being the difference maker in this game.
Fantasy Impact: Both QBs should not be in a standard league lineup. Charles had a very good game last year against the Bills, and I would expect another one this year. Bowe on the other hand did not, with only seven fantasy points. I am still starting Bowe this week no doubt. As for the Bills, I think you are starting Fred Jackson in your flex and playing Steve Johnson as a WR2. Both should be good options for week one. I think everyone should keep their eye on Ryan Fitzpatrick, a QB that is very far under the radar this year.
Prediction:  Chiefs 27 - Bills 23


Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans
ESPN Preview
CBS - 1:00 PM EST
Line: Texans by 8.5
Over/Under: 43.5
My Preview: No Manning. No glory for the Colts. This team is formed around Manning and without Peyton under center, things could get ugly for the Colts. This is definitely the chance for the Texans to end the Colts streak of playoff appearances at nine. I think the Texans have an extremely favorable match-up against 38 year old Kerry Collins, Peyton Manning's replacement. I know you are saying to yourself, "Manning? Replacement? Those don't belong together," But that's what the Colts have been forced to do in Indianapolis. Houston is going to spread the ball around and embarrass these Colts on Sunday.

Andre Johnson should have a good game.

Fantasy Impact: I ranked Andre Johnson as my #1 wide receiver this week for a reason: Foster is injured, and the Texans are going to air it out against a sub-par Colts' pass defense. Another thing, even though my rankings say differently, I think the Texans are going to be cautious with Foster and sit him out for this game. I think Ward and Tate are going to handle the load just fine. As for the Colts' well, it's going to be all about Kerry Collins performance. I think Kerry Collins hurts the value of Wayne and Garcon. But I can see Addai getting more of a load, Clark getting more targets, and Collie just being the kind of receiver that Collins can trust. I think Schaub, Andre Johnson, Clark, Wayne, Collie, and Addai are the guys that deserve a starting spot this week.
Prediction: Texans 38 - Colts 17.

Philadelphia Eagles @ St.Louis Rams
ESPN Preview
FOX - 1:00 PM EST
Line: Eagles by 4
Over/Under: 44

Keep Lance Kendricks on the bench for now.

My Preview: Can the "Dream Team" show up in week one? If the Rams can put the pressure on Vick then  the Eagles might have a hard time, but if they don't get any pressure on Vick, then he is going to absolutely shred this Rams defense. Sam Bradford is going to have a lot of trouble with this defense as well. We also get to see how this Eagles secondary is going to do in a real game situation, so this should be a good one to watch.
Fantasy Impact: This game has a lot of fantasy studs you are probably going to want to start. On the Eagles side you have Mike Vick playing a weak Rams pass defense; I ranked him #1 this week. You also have McCoy who may get a lot of catches because the rush that the Rams will be putting on Vick, and then Desean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin as well. For the Rams, fantasy owners should be keeping their eyes on Sam Bradford and Mike Sims-Walker, as well as up and coming tight end Lance Kendricks. The only guy I am starting for the Rams this week though is Steven Jackson.
Prediction: Eagles 30, Rams 20

Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns
ESPN Preview
CBS - 1:00 PM EST
Line: Cleveland by 6.5
Over/Under: 35.5

Will Jerome Simpson pick up where he left off?

My Preview: Both of these teams are seen by gutter teams by almost every analyst, but I tend to think otherwise. I don't think that Browns are all that bad. They are a team on the rise right now, and they have a lot of young talent. The Bengals on the other hand, well, they are the Bengals. They could be one of the worst teams in the NFL this year, and this is a game that rookie QB Andy Dalton can come out and show everyone that they can play.
Fantasy Impact: There really aren't many guys to start in this game besides Peyton Hillis. The main thing I am watching is who the two quarterback's are going to target the most. I think for the Browns Brian Robiskie is going to get a lot of looks, and for the Bengals I think it will be Jerome Simpson. I think Jermaine Gresham will get quite a few looks from Dalton as well. The only two guys I am starting are Hillis and Cedric Benson. Everyone else has potential, but they aren't there yet.
Prediction: Browns 23, Bengals 10 - Browns are my Eliminator Pick of the Week


Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
ESPN Preview
CBS - 1:00 PM EST
Line: Jaguars by 1
Over/Under: 35.5

Kenny Britt is a must start this week.

My Preview: A lot of new faces in new places in this game. We're going to see Matt Hasselbeck in a Titans jersey, Chris Johnson on the field, Mike Thomas as a #1 wide receiver, and Luke McCown starting at quarterback. The Titans are going to be packing eight men in the box very often to stop the Jags only weapon: Marice Jones-Drew. I think Kenny Britt may have a nice game, but we will have to see how him and Hasselbeck connect. The Titans may actually fare well in this one, and they might even make a run at the division title early in the year.
Fantasy Impact: Unless Luke McCown can step up, I don't expect MJD to have a great game. You still have to start him, but don't expect too much. I think Marcedes Lewis value should stay the same, and he is still a top ten tight end, but it hurts the little value that Mike Thomas had, as well as Jason Hill. For the Titans, I think both Chris Johnson and Kenny Britt will have really good games against the weak Jaguars defense. I will also be watching tight end Jared Cook, and wide receiver Nate Washington.
Prediction: Titans 20, Jacksonville 10


New York Giants @ Washington Redskins
ESPN Preview
FOX - 4:15 PM EST
Line: Giants by 3
Over/Under: 38

You can expect to see a lot of this on Sunday.

My Preview: Redskins decided to go with Grossman over Beck for the starting QB job, and it was very apparent that he was having a better preseason. However, this Redskins team is not going to fare well this year. And with injuries in the secondary (even though they acquired OJ Atogwe) Eli Manning could throw all over this already bad pass defense. But speaking of pass defenses, the Giant's isn't all that great either. Washington isn't going to hang around long in this game, and I think the line is way too far off.
Fantasy Impact: Hakeem Nicks is going to go off this week, I really like him against the weak pass defense of the Redskins. Manningham should have a nice game as well. Although it is unknown how Coughlin is going to use Jacobs, I think Bradshaw is a must start, and Jacobs should be held on the bench, at least for now. For the Reskins, I think that Fred Davis (if Chris Cooley sits) and Moss could both have nice games this week, Grossman isn't awful, and those guys should still get targets. Hightower is worht a flex spot this week, but stay away from the other two (Helu and Torain) if you can.
Prediction: Giants 27, Redskins 16

  
Carolina Panthers @ Arizona Cardinals
ESPN Preview

FOX - 4:15 PM EST
Line: Cardinals by 6.5
Over/Under: 37

I'm excited to see how Roberts does with Kolb.

My Preview: There are two new quarterbacks under center for both of these teams. One has a lot more experience than the other, but they are both new to their respective teams. I still don't think either offense is going to have a great game here. Kevin Kolb has to deal with Carolina's above-par secondary, and the Panthers are led by Cam Newton who has looked ugly in the preseason in terms of passing. Panthers have the better RBs, but without a passing game to back it up, DeAngelo Williams and Johnathan Stewart may not be all that productive
Fantasy Impact: Kolb may be in some team's lineup this week, he is a very low end QB1, but Cam Newton should not be in any lineup and should be on the bench. Fitzgerald has a quarterback now and it will be good to see how he fares with Kolb, as well as my sleeper wide receiver Andre Roberts. For the Panthers, I want to see how their offense is going to do with Cam Newton. People should be starting Steve Smith, Larry Fitzgerald, DeAngelo Williams, and Johnathan Stewart and Beanie Wells should be decent flex plays this week.
Prediction: Cardinals 24, Panthers 13


Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers
ESPN Preview
FOX - 4:15 PM EST
Line: 49ers by 5.5
Over/Under: 37.5

This guy's gotta be in your line up.

My Preview: There really isn't much to say here. I think this game is going to be bad: a very low scoring affair for both teams. The 49ers quarterbacks couldn't produce in the preseason to save their lives and the Seahawks have Tavaris Jackson under center, enough said. This game is not going to be pretty. I think Frank Gore will actually shine some light on the 49ers pass defense though, and the Seahawks aren't going to have much of an answer for him.
Fantasy Impact: Neither QB is going to have much of a game and neither one should even be on a fantasy rosters. For the wide receivers, the only one I might be starting is Braylon Edwards. Sidney Rice is listed as doubtful and looks like he is going to sit this one out. I wouldn't start any Seattle wide receivers. I am starting both starting running backs though. Davis is an obvious start at TE, and Miller is a decent start at TE.
Prediction: 49ers 17, Seahawks 14


Minnesota Vikings @ San Diego Chargers
ESPN Preview
FOX - 4:15 PM EST
Line: San Diego by 8.5
Over/Under: 41.5
My Preview: One of the biggest and most predictable moves in the off-season was Donavan McNabb heading to Minnesota. Even without Sidney Rice there anymore, I think McNabb could have a decent season, and I know he can have one better than he did in Washington. Phillip Rivers is a lot of people's MVP pick right now. And I wouldn't doubt it considering he led the league in passing yards without his two top targets for a lot of the season. In this game, I am really looking for how Mike Tolbert and Ryan Matthews are going to be used in this offense. I'll also be watching how McNabb and Harvin connect in their first NFL game together. I think the Vikings might contend with this team for a while, but the Chargers are just too powerful for the
Fantasy Impact: With Kevin Williams out, I think both Chargers running backs are good starts this week. Antonio Gates looks like he will be ready to go, and Vincent Jackson is always a must start. I think everyone who has Floyd should wait and see how the Chargers are going to use their WR2 this year, and then maybe activate him in weeks to come. For the Vikings I would play Harvin with a flex spot, and you are obviously going to be starting Adrian Peterson.
Prediction: Chargers 30, Vikings 20


Dallas Cowboys @ New York Jets
ESPN Preview
NBC - 8:20 PM EST
Line: Jets by 5.5
Over/Under: 40.5

Watch for this guy on Sunday Night

My Preview: The way the Cowboys secondary reacts to the injury of Terence Newman is going to leave a major impact on this game. If Orlando Scandrick can come up and perform (like his contract says he should) then Cowboys will be fine, but if not, it could be an ugly game for the Cowboys defense. The Jets are going to have to find a way to shut down the Cowboys passing attack if they want to have a chance in this one. Romo will likely go to Witten, or expose Cromartie whether than going Darelle Revis' way. I'll be watching to see how Plaxico Burress fares against the Cowboys, and also who the Cowboys true third wide receiver is going to be this year.
Fantasy Impact: A couple of the people I am sitting in this game may surprise you. I am going to sit both of the running backs. I think both will probably get shut down by the opposing defense. I am starting Austin, Dez Bryant, and Santonio Holmes. The best performance from this game will probably by Jason Witten because the Jets just don't have the linebackers to cover him. I am sitting Plaxico Burress and Dustin Keller until they can prove to me they are start-worthy. I think both of the quarterbacks are decent options this week, but Sanchez has the most upside as this may not be Romo's week.
Predictions: Cowboys 27, Jets 24 - Game of the Week


New England Patriots @ Miami Dolhpins
ESPN Preview
ESPN - Monday 7:00 PM  EST
Line: Patriots by 6.5
Over/Under: 45.5

The off-season acquisition is going to payoff in week one

My Preview: Patriots were the #1 seed in last year's playoffs, and all they did was improve this off-season with the addition of Ochocinco and Albert Haynesworth. Both could, and should, benefit the team. They did recently release Brandon Meriweather, but it shouldn't be a huge factor for the Patriots. Brady is going to jump on the Dolphins on Monday night, and the Dolphins are going to get crushed. Patriots defeated the Dolphins by an average of 29 points in two games last year. Twenty-nine. With a better offense, I think the Patriots are going to be all over the 'Phins
Fantasy Impact: The Dolphins have a pretty mediocre pass defense, so I think Ochocinco and Welker are both starts. I expect the Dolphins to go down early, and then start throwing the ball a lot. That's why I like Chad Henne if you are scrambling for a quarterback this week. I also like Reggie Bush since Daniel Thomas is not going to play in this one, as well as Brandon Marshall. For the Patriots tight ends that went back and forth last year, I would try to stay away from both of them this week. Until you know who Brady is targeting more often then I think you can probably find better options. And last but not least I am also starting BenJarvus Green-Ellis because I think the Patriots are going to resort to the ground game in the second half.



Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos
ESPN Preview
ESPN - Monday 10:15 EST
Line: Broncos by 3
Over/Under: 40.5
My Preview: The last game of the week, and the second half of a two game Monday Night Football on ESPN. These two teams are unpredictable with a lot of questions coming into the season. Can Kyle Orton start how he started last year? Can Brandon Lloyd be what he was last year? Can Knowshon Moreno stay healthy? Is Dumervil ready? What about the Raiders? Can Jason Campbell be what he was supposed to be last year? Can Jacoby Ford be a #1 wide receiver, or anyone else on the team for that matter? Is McFadden for real? Can Asomugha come close to being replaced? All of these are questions that can't be answered until we get to game time. They are also things that I will be looking for in this game.

Can he perform at Mile High again?

Fantasy Preview- Let's just run through these real quick. Most of it is covered in the questions I am asking up above, but I'll just go position by position. I think Orton is a start this week against a very weak Oakland Raiders defense, as well as his favorite target Brandon Lloyd. There aren't any tight ends that are interesting in this match up, but I think that both running backs are must starts. We all know what Moreno did when he was healthy last year, and we also know how badly McFadden shredded this defense last year. Jacoby Ford may be a flex play if you need the upside, but in most cases he should be on your bench. And last is Willis McGahee who should find a spot on the pine this week until you see what kind of role he is going to have with his new team.
Prediction: Denver 23, Raiders 17

 Thanks for reading everyone. I hope you enjoy the games this weekend. If you have any questions about your fantasy football team, or maybe you just want to talk football then shoot me an email or follow me on Twitter, @TheFFAddict. Enjoy your Sunday full of football!

2011 NFL Predictions: Stat Leaders

Yesterday I said I wouldn't be back on the holiday but here I am. I have some more NFL Predictiuons today and I just want to make it short sweet. Like I said in the last blog, I recommend doing this yourself. It's a fun little thing to do that you can look back on in February and say,"Wow, did I really pick Mark Ingram to finish top three in rushing TDs," Or look back on the good/bad predictions you made. That being said, this will be my second of three blogs on my predictions for the 2011 NFL season. This one, as seen in the title, is about stat leaders and who will lead the league in pretty much every stat category. Let’s get this show on the road

Passing Yards

1. Aaron Rodgers

2. Tom Brady

3.  Phillip Rivers

Passing Touchdowns

1. Aaron Rodgers

2. Tom Brady

3. Tony Romo

Passer Rating

1. Tom Brady

2. Aaron Rodgers

3. Ben Roethlisberger

Most Interceptions

1. Jay Cutler

2. Eli Manning

3. Chad Henne

Rushing Yards

1. Jamaal Charles

2. Chris Johnson

3. Arian Foster

Rushing TDs

1. Peyton Hillis

2. Adrian Peterson

3. Michael Turner

Receptions

1.  Larry Fitzgerald

2. Roddy White

3. Jason Witter

Receiving Yards

1. Andre Johnson

2. Mike Wallace

3. Hakeem Nicks

Receiving Touchdowns

1. Calvin Johnson

2. Larry Fitzgerald

3. Hakeem Nicks

Most Tackles

1. Lawrence Timmons

2. London Fletcher

3. Jerod Mayo

Most Interceptions

1.  Joe Haden

2. Ed Reed

3. Tramon Williams/Brent Grimes

Most Sacks

1. Demarcus Ware

2. Shaun Phillips

3. Trent Cole

4. Tamba Hali

5. Clay Matthews

Forced Fumbles

1. Osi Umenyiora

2. Dwight Freeney

3. Tamba Hali

After all of that, I always choose who I think will win certain awards, including the runner-up. So let’s take a look at that.

League MVP

Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers

Runner-Up: Phillip Rivers, QB, San Diego Chargers

Offensive Player of the Year

Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers

Runner-Up: Jamaal Charles, RB, Kansas City Chiefs

Defensive Player of the Year

Demarcus Ware, OLB, Dallas Cowboys

Runner-Up: Joe Haden, CB, Cleveland Browns

AP Offensive Rookie of the Year

Mark Ingram, RB, New Orleans Saints

Runner-Up: Cam Newton, QB, Carolina Panthers

AP Defensive Rookie of the Year

Marcel Dareus, DT/DE, Buffalo Bills

Runner-Up- Von Miller, LB,  Denver Broncos

Comeback Player of the Year

Tony Romo, QB, Dallas Cowboys

Thanks for reading. Tuesday afternoon my bold predictions will come out, three from each team, and then on Wednesday my week one fantasy football rankings come out. One last thing I was wondering from all you readers, do you guys think a friend and I should start a podcast? If so, leave a comment with ideas or suggestions for the podcast. Be sure to follow this blog, follow me on Twitter @TheFFAddict, and feel free to email me cshardy@att.net.

2011 NFL Playoff Predictions

Every year, right before the season, I like to predict the NFL playoffs as well as pick my Superbowl champion, just like most other football fans. Let's go ahead and do that, and if it is short enough we can move on to my stat leaders, If I don't have time for that then those predictions will be out on Tuesday.
Let's get started.

The sixth seed in the NFC will be the New Orleans Saints out of the NFC South with a record of 10-6. They didn't do much this off season with the exception of Mark Ingram. Just a side Wild Card note here: I have the Lions also going 10-6, but the Lions will lose the head to head with New Orleans.

With the fifth seed I have the Dallas Cowboys. The offense will be back with Romo back on the field, an improved secondary will help defend the passing game, and with an explosive offense as always, I project the Cowboys to go 11-5. That being said, we know the Cowboys have let their fans down the last couple of years; they were projected to have a great year and then screw the pooch. Expect the Cowboys to have a much better season this year.

Now our first division winner comes from the NFC West where the Kevin Kolb led Arizona Cardinals win their division by one game. They added Kevin Kolb from the Eagles in the off season as expected, and I anticipate them to have a much better year. I have the Cardinals winning the division with a 9-7 record, beating out the Rams by a small margin of only one game. Maybe 2012 will be the year for Bradford and the young St.Louis Rams.

In the three spot I have the Philadelphia Eagles from the NFC East. They had a great off season adding Jason Babin, Nnamdi Asomugha (no, I didn't have to search that name up), Cullen Jenkins, and a blockbuster Kolb for Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. Their defense has improved a ton, and they could be an extreme powerhouse this year if they can figure out their problems at the offensive line. That all being said, I have the Eagles down for 12-4.

In the two spot, from the NFC South, I have the Atlanta Falcons, led by Matty Ice.  Just like the Saints, the Falcons made no big moves, but added some young depth. You may want to look out for Julio Jones this season; he has tremendous athletic ability and can score from anywhere on the field. I have the Falcons also going 12-4 but winning the match up with the Eagles to give them the first round bye and home field for the first game.

And the first seed in the NFC is the Green Bay Packers. They have kept nearly all of their Superbowl team from last year and are any people's Superbowl favorite. Jermicahel Finley, AJ Hawk, and Ryan Grant are all ready to go after being placed on IR last season. This might just be the best offense in the NFL this year with a two-man backfield and Aaron Rodgers under center. I have the Packers down to go 14-2 only losing at the Giants and at the Chargers.

With the sixth seed in the AFC is the New York Jets. A little difference from last year with a few added veterans and a new receiving core around Santonio Holmes. I have the Jets going 11-5, and taking second in the AFC East. Could this be the year of the "Sanchise"? I guess we will have to wait and see.

The fifth seed in the AFC from the AFC North with a 12-4 record is the Baltimore Ravens. Last year they made it to the divisional round and couldn't come up with a game winning drive against the Steelers: they were also my Superbowl pick last year. That being said, I think they will have another great season this year, and be in contention to get to the Superbowl.
The Texans have come close to the playoffs a number of times since becoming a franchise in 2002, but this is the year. Arian Foster is going to lead the Texans to win the AFC South and claim the fourth seed in the AFC with a 10-6 record. The Colts will finish a game behind with a record of 9-7.

The third seed in the AFC is the Chargers from the AFC West. They always seem to be over hyped, but they seemed to have fixed the problems on special teams so if they can minimize mistakes these team could be extremely good. I have them going 12-4 and winning their division by three games. Maybe Norv Turner can finally get to the Superbowl this year.


With the second seed I have the Pittsburgh Steelers. They have been to the Superbowl the last two years, and Mike Tomlin knows what he is doing. I have the Steelers going 13-3. I expect Big Ben to have a great season and win the division for the fourth time in the last five years.


Then the final seed (as many expected) is the New England Patriots. They have had made the playoffs eight times in the past ten years, and I expect them to make it nine out of  eleven. They made improvements on their offensive line and in the secondary and picked up some good depth in the draft. I have them going 14-2 and I wouldn't doubt it. Patriots are going to be good, real good.

Now we move on to the good part: my playoff predictions. Now if you don't know how this works, the first round is called the Wild Card Round, the second round is the Divisional Round, and the round before the Superbowl is the Conference Championship. In the Wildcard Round the sixth seeded team in each conference plays the third seeded team in the same conference while the fourth and fifth seeds from the same conference play each other. The winner of those games advance to the Divisional Round where the lowest seed to advance in each conference plays the highest seed. The winner of those advance to the conference championship, and then the Superbowl. I'd hope, if you are American, you would already know that...but I thought I would help you out if you didn't.


Wildcard Round

In the NFC Wildcard round lets start with the Saints vs Eagles. I think Brees and the Saints will put up a fight, but Eagles will pull off in the end: Eagles 31, Saints 20.

Then in the second wild card game for the NFC is the Cowboys vs Cardinals. I think the Cowboys pass all over the Cardinals, and humiliate their offense: Cowboys 38, Cardinals 17.

Next we shift to the AFC where the Jets take on the Chargers. I think this will be the best game we see in the playoffs but Norv Turner and the Chargers will lose in overtime: Chargers 27, Jets 24



The second game for the AFC is the Ravens vs the Texans. Now I think this may be a good game as well. I really like the Ravens, but at the same time Houston can attack in a lot of different ways. I'm going to take the Ravens, but just by a hair: Ravens 27, Texans 24.

 Divisonal Round

So like I said, after the wildcard round we move to the divisional round. The first game in the NFC is the Packers taking on the Cowboys. I think Cowboys will put up a fight at the beginning, but the Packers offense will be too much for the Cowboys young secondary: Packers 34, Cowboys 24.


The second game in the NFC is the Eagles taking on the Falcons for the second time of the season. The Falcons got the first round bye because they won the head to head matchup in week two of the regular season. But who can win it later in the season? I think the Falcons will find a way to contain Vick and McCoy and end up winning this one: Falcons 20, Eagles 14.


Then we move over to the AFC where the Chargers take on the Patriots. Rivers make an attempt for a comeback at the end, but I think the Patriots will hold on: Patriots 37, Chargers 30.

The final divisional match-up is the Ravens and the Steelers; another divisional rivalry. This is going to be another great game. I really like both of these teams this year but I think Ravens will win it on a game winning field goal: Ravens 16, Steelers 14.


Conference Championships

One last game. One more win to get to that Superbowl from here. In the NFC we have the Packers vs the Falcons and in the AFC the Patriots vs the Ravens. So who's it going to be?


In the NFC there is the Packers vs the Falcons that will be played in Green Bay. This was the match-up we saw last year in the divisional round. The Packers prevailed, and later went on the Superbowl. The Packers, with their team healthy, are going to make it past the Falcons with a little help from their defense: Packers 30, Falcons 20.


In the AFC it will be the Ravens taking on the Patriots. The Patriots, with only two losses all year, and Brady are really going to step up in this one. But I think the Ravens will make big plays on defense that will bring home an AFC Championship: Ravens 27, Patriots 21.


Superbowl XLVI
The long journey, all season these two teams fought to get here. Packers for the second straight time. Ravens for the first time in over 10 years. Both looking for a championship. Both teams have the defense, but the Packers have the more dominant offense with Aaron Rodgers. So, my 2011-2012 Superbowl Champions are the Green Bay Packers by a score of 24 to 17. The MVP is Aaron Rodgers, and the Packers bring the championship back to Green Bay for the second straight year.


Since this has been such a long post, at the beginning of the next blog on Tuesday I will give you guys my selection for the stat leaders. Also, Wednesday I will be releasing my week one fantasy rankings. But until then, don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TheFFAddict, and you can always email me any questions or comments to cshardy@att.net. Also, don't forget to leave a comment on this blog and follow this blog. Thanks!

Overvalued QBs and Undervalued RBs

After a day off (do you consider a night full of homework a night off?) I have completely prepared my blog for today and I think I found the best candidates. I think you might be surprised. Let's run over some news real quick so we can move to the undervalued/overvalued.

The story that every fantasy owner seems to be fretting about is Arian Foster's hamstring. ESPN's John Clayton said he is expected to miss 3-4 weeks because in the MRI there was a small tear. Before you go drop James Starks and go get Ben Tate let me tell you: this is not as serious as the media and others are making it. Arian Foster is still not taking it seriously and thinks he will play in week one. He might not be full health but he should be 90% for week two. Even if you are going to pick some one up, I'm not sure you want to grab Ben Tate. Many people around the Texans think that Derrick Ward will be the guy in Houston if Foster misses a game despite Tate's great preseason. I would stay away from the Houston backfield completely in week one. In the long run, if Foster performs like last year, he will still be far ahead (fantasy points wise) of any running back at the end of the year, even with sitting out a game or two. Don't worry about this injury; if Arian himself isn't taking it seriously (check out his twitter) then neither should you.

Arian Foster went down with a hamstring injury in Saturday's game. It was later found to be a small tear.

Another rather small story out Jacksonville: after Rashad Jenning's knee sprain in the Jaguars game on Saturday, he was seen at Tuesday's practice on crutches. So unfortunate for the Jaguars because right as Maurice Jones-Drew is ready to go, Jennings goes down. There is not much news on Jennings but if he is to miss a game (he will miss the final preseason game) then Deji Karim will be the Jaguars backup running back.

Rashad Jenning (knee) was seen on crutches on Tuesday.

Now for my first overvalued quarterback I present to you: Kevin Kolb. As of now, he is being drafted in the 11th round, which is way too high for Kolb. He has yet to really prove himself, and he really hasn't shown us much. In the 11th round he is going over guys like: Kyle Orton who we talked about on Monday, as well as Jay Cutler and Joe Flacco. This is ridiculous. I know he was covered a lot by the media, and that is probably a big factor. But drafting him over proven quarterbacks is not a smart move. I wouldn't take Kolb until the 13th or 14th round, just let some one else take that risk.

I'd rather let someone else take Kevin Kolb in the 11th/12th rounds.

Since there really aren't many overvalued quarterbacks this year, let's just move on ahead to the undervalued running backs, then I will give you a really deep guy, just like I did on quarterbacks. My first undervalued guy in Tim Hightower. Many people are against this guy since he is part of a three-headed Shanahan monster. I know it is a reach, but I would take Hightower in the sixth or maybe even fifth round if you are in a standard non-PPR league. Redskins say he is the guy for week one (still, Shanahan is the coach I mean come on) . I really like the guy if he stays in that role. Just a side note on the Redskins: I think John Beck will be the starting QB and I think he will be fairly decent. Not as bad as others think, at least.

My second guy is Reggie Bush. People are worried about injury concerns, I know, I know; but this guy is very explosive and if he stays healthy I think he will have 1,500+ all purpose yards., mark my works. The guy has looked great in preseason and I think he has found new life in Miami. He is being drafted in the eighth round right now, I think that is about right, but a lot of the time you can wait and grab him in the ninth or tenth rounds. That being said, do not go off and draft him in the sixth or seventh round like some people do because of the name. If you use a pick like that you put your trust that he will not get injured, and, well, that is just plain stupid.

But you know what's not stupide final round? Grabbing a deep sleeper at RB in ths of your draft. The guy I'm grabbing? It has to be LaRod Stephens-Howling. He is going to be backup to an injury machine, Beanie Wells. LaRod can catch the ball better than Beanie meaning he is going to find time on the field for that, but it's not just his pass receiving skills. We have seen Beanie get benched by Coach Ken Whisenhunt in the past. Of course, it wasn't for Stephens-Howling, but it does tell you that Beanie could get benched sometime before this season is over. I would be taking Stephens-Howling in the third to last round before you grab your defense or kicker.

Hope you guys enjoyed. Come back tomorrow for my overvalued RBs and my undervalued WRs. Until then you can follow me on Twitter: @TheFFAddict. Thanks for reading!