Week One NFL Game Picks

Us fans have been through a near detrimental lockout, an agonizing off-season, and a frustrating wait, but Thursday we got back to football. The words we have been waiting to hear for seven months: back to football. Oh, the sweet sound. Every fan making their picks, setting their line ups, scanning the waiver wire, asking the fantasy gods their start/sit questions, but now it is a reality. Sunday is the day. I have done almost all of that. I sit here and rank my players time and time again, pick who I would start/sit, and just talk about football. But now I have one last thing to do before football gets to a start: make my picks. I know I missed one game already, but with the Packers being my Superbowl pick I figured that you guys might now that I was going with the Pack.

Now that that game is in the past we can move on to Sunday. I'm going to give you my pick for every game, including my pick with the line, and the O/U. Not only that but I will also post the score and the fantasy impact in every game.


Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens

You've gotta start your studs in week one

ESPN Preview
CBS - 1:00 PM EST
Line: Ravens by 1
Over/Under: 36
My Preview: I think the Ravens win this one although I have the Steelers winning the North. If Ravens can prevent turnovers then I think they will prevail, and I would take them with the spread too. I'm going to take the under on this game. The Steelers and Ravens always play very tight low scoring games, I would expect a little less than 36.
Fantasy Impact- I wouldn't like to have either one of these QBs this week, most people usually have better options. As for the running backs, I think everyone needs to start their studs and stop worrying about the bad match up. My sleeper for this game is Emanuel Sanders. I think he is going to find some holes in the defense and have a nice game. Also, those worried about Boldin, forget about it. He is still a decent flex play this week.
Prediction: Ravens 20, Steelers 13


Detroit Lions @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
ESPN Preview
FOX - 1:00 PM EST
Line: Buccaneers by 1
Over/Under: 41
My Preview: Believe it or not, this (in some people's minds) is a playoff match up. Neither one of these teams weren't in my playoffs, but I think both are very solid contenders. The Lions have a healthy Matthew Stafford, and for the Bucs it's another year of experience for quarterback Josh Freeman. This should be a good offense game, and I am going to go against the line and say that the Lions win this one. I think their offense is going to really impress a lot of people. I will also take the over on 41. Lions 30 - Buccaneers 24

Matthew Stafford is healthy, and ready to roll.

Fantasy Impact- Look for both QBs to have a nice one in this game, but I think Stafford will fare better than Freeman. For RBs, I like Blount a lot this week. He is a guy I will be watching to see if he is the workhorse that many have said that he may be. For the wide receivers you are obviously starting Megatron. In a deeper league I think Burleson could be interesting this week. Williams is a solid WR2 this week too, but I will be keeping my eye on Benn to see what kind of role he plays in this offense. As for the TE's, both are pretty good plays.


Atlanta Falcons @ Chicago Bears
ESPN Preview 
FOX - 1:00 PM EST
Line: Falcons by 2.5
Over/Under: 40.5

Matt Forte is a must start in all fantasy football formats this week

My Preview: This game consists of two playoff teams from 2010. Both teams had a first round bye in the playoffs, and the Bears hosted the NFC Championship in that loss to the Green Bay Packers. The Bears might be a little bit underrated in this match up, just like they were all of last year. I think Bears will have a solid outing in this game, but I'm going to go with Matty Ice in this one. I'll take the Falcons with and without the spread. I will go under on the over/under.
Fantasy Impact:  Matt Ryan should be a good fantasy option for this game, but Jay cutler might not. Both teams have good defenses, but are better in the rushing/pass rush game and don't have strong secondaries. I don't think I am starting any Bears WRs, while I would start Roddy White and possibly Julio Jones in the flex in a deep league. I'm starting both RBs. Barber may be held out of this games, which guarantees goal line carries for Forte, and a heavy load. I really like Forte this week. Neither TE should be in your starting lineup.
Predictions:  Falcons 24 - Bears 16

Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City
ESPN Preview
CBS - 1:00 PM EST
Line: Chiefs by 5.5
Over/Under: 40

Charles had a great game against the Bills last year

My Preview: Bills may not be there ye, but they are rising. I think they will compete in nearly every game this year, and also have a fair record. Kansas City is going to have to beat San Diego for the division and they need a strong start. Cassel says he will play this game. I think Bills are going to hang in this game until the end just like they did all of last year. Charles will end up being the difference maker in this game.
Fantasy Impact: Both QBs should not be in a standard league lineup. Charles had a very good game last year against the Bills, and I would expect another one this year. Bowe on the other hand did not, with only seven fantasy points. I am still starting Bowe this week no doubt. As for the Bills, I think you are starting Fred Jackson in your flex and playing Steve Johnson as a WR2. Both should be good options for week one. I think everyone should keep their eye on Ryan Fitzpatrick, a QB that is very far under the radar this year.
Prediction:  Chiefs 27 - Bills 23


Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans
ESPN Preview
CBS - 1:00 PM EST
Line: Texans by 8.5
Over/Under: 43.5
My Preview: No Manning. No glory for the Colts. This team is formed around Manning and without Peyton under center, things could get ugly for the Colts. This is definitely the chance for the Texans to end the Colts streak of playoff appearances at nine. I think the Texans have an extremely favorable match-up against 38 year old Kerry Collins, Peyton Manning's replacement. I know you are saying to yourself, "Manning? Replacement? Those don't belong together," But that's what the Colts have been forced to do in Indianapolis. Houston is going to spread the ball around and embarrass these Colts on Sunday.

Andre Johnson should have a good game.

Fantasy Impact: I ranked Andre Johnson as my #1 wide receiver this week for a reason: Foster is injured, and the Texans are going to air it out against a sub-par Colts' pass defense. Another thing, even though my rankings say differently, I think the Texans are going to be cautious with Foster and sit him out for this game. I think Ward and Tate are going to handle the load just fine. As for the Colts' well, it's going to be all about Kerry Collins performance. I think Kerry Collins hurts the value of Wayne and Garcon. But I can see Addai getting more of a load, Clark getting more targets, and Collie just being the kind of receiver that Collins can trust. I think Schaub, Andre Johnson, Clark, Wayne, Collie, and Addai are the guys that deserve a starting spot this week.
Prediction: Texans 38 - Colts 17.

Philadelphia Eagles @ St.Louis Rams
ESPN Preview
FOX - 1:00 PM EST
Line: Eagles by 4
Over/Under: 44

Keep Lance Kendricks on the bench for now.

My Preview: Can the "Dream Team" show up in week one? If the Rams can put the pressure on Vick then  the Eagles might have a hard time, but if they don't get any pressure on Vick, then he is going to absolutely shred this Rams defense. Sam Bradford is going to have a lot of trouble with this defense as well. We also get to see how this Eagles secondary is going to do in a real game situation, so this should be a good one to watch.
Fantasy Impact: This game has a lot of fantasy studs you are probably going to want to start. On the Eagles side you have Mike Vick playing a weak Rams pass defense; I ranked him #1 this week. You also have McCoy who may get a lot of catches because the rush that the Rams will be putting on Vick, and then Desean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin as well. For the Rams, fantasy owners should be keeping their eyes on Sam Bradford and Mike Sims-Walker, as well as up and coming tight end Lance Kendricks. The only guy I am starting for the Rams this week though is Steven Jackson.
Prediction: Eagles 30, Rams 20

Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns
ESPN Preview
CBS - 1:00 PM EST
Line: Cleveland by 6.5
Over/Under: 35.5

Will Jerome Simpson pick up where he left off?

My Preview: Both of these teams are seen by gutter teams by almost every analyst, but I tend to think otherwise. I don't think that Browns are all that bad. They are a team on the rise right now, and they have a lot of young talent. The Bengals on the other hand, well, they are the Bengals. They could be one of the worst teams in the NFL this year, and this is a game that rookie QB Andy Dalton can come out and show everyone that they can play.
Fantasy Impact: There really aren't many guys to start in this game besides Peyton Hillis. The main thing I am watching is who the two quarterback's are going to target the most. I think for the Browns Brian Robiskie is going to get a lot of looks, and for the Bengals I think it will be Jerome Simpson. I think Jermaine Gresham will get quite a few looks from Dalton as well. The only two guys I am starting are Hillis and Cedric Benson. Everyone else has potential, but they aren't there yet.
Prediction: Browns 23, Bengals 10 - Browns are my Eliminator Pick of the Week


Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
ESPN Preview
CBS - 1:00 PM EST
Line: Jaguars by 1
Over/Under: 35.5

Kenny Britt is a must start this week.

My Preview: A lot of new faces in new places in this game. We're going to see Matt Hasselbeck in a Titans jersey, Chris Johnson on the field, Mike Thomas as a #1 wide receiver, and Luke McCown starting at quarterback. The Titans are going to be packing eight men in the box very often to stop the Jags only weapon: Marice Jones-Drew. I think Kenny Britt may have a nice game, but we will have to see how him and Hasselbeck connect. The Titans may actually fare well in this one, and they might even make a run at the division title early in the year.
Fantasy Impact: Unless Luke McCown can step up, I don't expect MJD to have a great game. You still have to start him, but don't expect too much. I think Marcedes Lewis value should stay the same, and he is still a top ten tight end, but it hurts the little value that Mike Thomas had, as well as Jason Hill. For the Titans, I think both Chris Johnson and Kenny Britt will have really good games against the weak Jaguars defense. I will also be watching tight end Jared Cook, and wide receiver Nate Washington.
Prediction: Titans 20, Jacksonville 10


New York Giants @ Washington Redskins
ESPN Preview
FOX - 4:15 PM EST
Line: Giants by 3
Over/Under: 38

You can expect to see a lot of this on Sunday.

My Preview: Redskins decided to go with Grossman over Beck for the starting QB job, and it was very apparent that he was having a better preseason. However, this Redskins team is not going to fare well this year. And with injuries in the secondary (even though they acquired OJ Atogwe) Eli Manning could throw all over this already bad pass defense. But speaking of pass defenses, the Giant's isn't all that great either. Washington isn't going to hang around long in this game, and I think the line is way too far off.
Fantasy Impact: Hakeem Nicks is going to go off this week, I really like him against the weak pass defense of the Redskins. Manningham should have a nice game as well. Although it is unknown how Coughlin is going to use Jacobs, I think Bradshaw is a must start, and Jacobs should be held on the bench, at least for now. For the Reskins, I think that Fred Davis (if Chris Cooley sits) and Moss could both have nice games this week, Grossman isn't awful, and those guys should still get targets. Hightower is worht a flex spot this week, but stay away from the other two (Helu and Torain) if you can.
Prediction: Giants 27, Redskins 16

  
Carolina Panthers @ Arizona Cardinals
ESPN Preview

FOX - 4:15 PM EST
Line: Cardinals by 6.5
Over/Under: 37

I'm excited to see how Roberts does with Kolb.

My Preview: There are two new quarterbacks under center for both of these teams. One has a lot more experience than the other, but they are both new to their respective teams. I still don't think either offense is going to have a great game here. Kevin Kolb has to deal with Carolina's above-par secondary, and the Panthers are led by Cam Newton who has looked ugly in the preseason in terms of passing. Panthers have the better RBs, but without a passing game to back it up, DeAngelo Williams and Johnathan Stewart may not be all that productive
Fantasy Impact: Kolb may be in some team's lineup this week, he is a very low end QB1, but Cam Newton should not be in any lineup and should be on the bench. Fitzgerald has a quarterback now and it will be good to see how he fares with Kolb, as well as my sleeper wide receiver Andre Roberts. For the Panthers, I want to see how their offense is going to do with Cam Newton. People should be starting Steve Smith, Larry Fitzgerald, DeAngelo Williams, and Johnathan Stewart and Beanie Wells should be decent flex plays this week.
Prediction: Cardinals 24, Panthers 13


Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers
ESPN Preview
FOX - 4:15 PM EST
Line: 49ers by 5.5
Over/Under: 37.5

This guy's gotta be in your line up.

My Preview: There really isn't much to say here. I think this game is going to be bad: a very low scoring affair for both teams. The 49ers quarterbacks couldn't produce in the preseason to save their lives and the Seahawks have Tavaris Jackson under center, enough said. This game is not going to be pretty. I think Frank Gore will actually shine some light on the 49ers pass defense though, and the Seahawks aren't going to have much of an answer for him.
Fantasy Impact: Neither QB is going to have much of a game and neither one should even be on a fantasy rosters. For the wide receivers, the only one I might be starting is Braylon Edwards. Sidney Rice is listed as doubtful and looks like he is going to sit this one out. I wouldn't start any Seattle wide receivers. I am starting both starting running backs though. Davis is an obvious start at TE, and Miller is a decent start at TE.
Prediction: 49ers 17, Seahawks 14


Minnesota Vikings @ San Diego Chargers
ESPN Preview
FOX - 4:15 PM EST
Line: San Diego by 8.5
Over/Under: 41.5
My Preview: One of the biggest and most predictable moves in the off-season was Donavan McNabb heading to Minnesota. Even without Sidney Rice there anymore, I think McNabb could have a decent season, and I know he can have one better than he did in Washington. Phillip Rivers is a lot of people's MVP pick right now. And I wouldn't doubt it considering he led the league in passing yards without his two top targets for a lot of the season. In this game, I am really looking for how Mike Tolbert and Ryan Matthews are going to be used in this offense. I'll also be watching how McNabb and Harvin connect in their first NFL game together. I think the Vikings might contend with this team for a while, but the Chargers are just too powerful for the
Fantasy Impact: With Kevin Williams out, I think both Chargers running backs are good starts this week. Antonio Gates looks like he will be ready to go, and Vincent Jackson is always a must start. I think everyone who has Floyd should wait and see how the Chargers are going to use their WR2 this year, and then maybe activate him in weeks to come. For the Vikings I would play Harvin with a flex spot, and you are obviously going to be starting Adrian Peterson.
Prediction: Chargers 30, Vikings 20


Dallas Cowboys @ New York Jets
ESPN Preview
NBC - 8:20 PM EST
Line: Jets by 5.5
Over/Under: 40.5

Watch for this guy on Sunday Night

My Preview: The way the Cowboys secondary reacts to the injury of Terence Newman is going to leave a major impact on this game. If Orlando Scandrick can come up and perform (like his contract says he should) then Cowboys will be fine, but if not, it could be an ugly game for the Cowboys defense. The Jets are going to have to find a way to shut down the Cowboys passing attack if they want to have a chance in this one. Romo will likely go to Witten, or expose Cromartie whether than going Darelle Revis' way. I'll be watching to see how Plaxico Burress fares against the Cowboys, and also who the Cowboys true third wide receiver is going to be this year.
Fantasy Impact: A couple of the people I am sitting in this game may surprise you. I am going to sit both of the running backs. I think both will probably get shut down by the opposing defense. I am starting Austin, Dez Bryant, and Santonio Holmes. The best performance from this game will probably by Jason Witten because the Jets just don't have the linebackers to cover him. I am sitting Plaxico Burress and Dustin Keller until they can prove to me they are start-worthy. I think both of the quarterbacks are decent options this week, but Sanchez has the most upside as this may not be Romo's week.
Predictions: Cowboys 27, Jets 24 - Game of the Week


New England Patriots @ Miami Dolhpins
ESPN Preview
ESPN - Monday 7:00 PM  EST
Line: Patriots by 6.5
Over/Under: 45.5

The off-season acquisition is going to payoff in week one

My Preview: Patriots were the #1 seed in last year's playoffs, and all they did was improve this off-season with the addition of Ochocinco and Albert Haynesworth. Both could, and should, benefit the team. They did recently release Brandon Meriweather, but it shouldn't be a huge factor for the Patriots. Brady is going to jump on the Dolphins on Monday night, and the Dolphins are going to get crushed. Patriots defeated the Dolphins by an average of 29 points in two games last year. Twenty-nine. With a better offense, I think the Patriots are going to be all over the 'Phins
Fantasy Impact: The Dolphins have a pretty mediocre pass defense, so I think Ochocinco and Welker are both starts. I expect the Dolphins to go down early, and then start throwing the ball a lot. That's why I like Chad Henne if you are scrambling for a quarterback this week. I also like Reggie Bush since Daniel Thomas is not going to play in this one, as well as Brandon Marshall. For the Patriots tight ends that went back and forth last year, I would try to stay away from both of them this week. Until you know who Brady is targeting more often then I think you can probably find better options. And last but not least I am also starting BenJarvus Green-Ellis because I think the Patriots are going to resort to the ground game in the second half.



Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos
ESPN Preview
ESPN - Monday 10:15 EST
Line: Broncos by 3
Over/Under: 40.5
My Preview: The last game of the week, and the second half of a two game Monday Night Football on ESPN. These two teams are unpredictable with a lot of questions coming into the season. Can Kyle Orton start how he started last year? Can Brandon Lloyd be what he was last year? Can Knowshon Moreno stay healthy? Is Dumervil ready? What about the Raiders? Can Jason Campbell be what he was supposed to be last year? Can Jacoby Ford be a #1 wide receiver, or anyone else on the team for that matter? Is McFadden for real? Can Asomugha come close to being replaced? All of these are questions that can't be answered until we get to game time. They are also things that I will be looking for in this game.

Can he perform at Mile High again?

Fantasy Preview- Let's just run through these real quick. Most of it is covered in the questions I am asking up above, but I'll just go position by position. I think Orton is a start this week against a very weak Oakland Raiders defense, as well as his favorite target Brandon Lloyd. There aren't any tight ends that are interesting in this match up, but I think that both running backs are must starts. We all know what Moreno did when he was healthy last year, and we also know how badly McFadden shredded this defense last year. Jacoby Ford may be a flex play if you need the upside, but in most cases he should be on your bench. And last is Willis McGahee who should find a spot on the pine this week until you see what kind of role he is going to have with his new team.
Prediction: Denver 23, Raiders 17

 Thanks for reading everyone. I hope you enjoy the games this weekend. If you have any questions about your fantasy football team, or maybe you just want to talk football then shoot me an email or follow me on Twitter, @TheFFAddict. Enjoy your Sunday full of football!