September 1, 2011

Overvalued RBs and Undervalued/Overvalued WRs

Another day, and more recommendations for your draft. Today is going to be all about the overvalued running backs in your draft, as well as some undervalued and overvalued wide receivers. Let's touch on some news real quick so we can get right to it.

After weeks of holding out, Chris Johnson signed a contract extension with the Tennessee Titans on Thursday afternoon, ending the most frightful hold out of the off season. The deal was reported to be a four-year, $53.5 million contract, with $30 million guaranteed money. He will not play the final preseason game but is expected to play in week one of the regular season. Obviously a huge break for fantasy owners, especially those in keeper leagues who owned Chris Johnson. I'm sure he won't be 100% ready to go week one because he is not yet in football form, but he should still be fine. I rank him as my third running back still though. If Arian Foster is playing week one (highly unlikely) I would put Johnson at fourth and Foster at three.

Looks like Chris Johnson is getting some new grills.
Now that we got the main news out of the way, we can move on to my overvalued/undervalued for the day. First is running backs, and a guy that is really grinding my gears right now is Darren McFadden. He is being drafted like a top ten fantasy running back. The guy was very inconsistent last year, and he is known to get injured a lot. To go along with all of that, Raiders offense got worse this off season. Not only was DMC inconsistent last year (under nine points four times and sat out three times), but the Raiders seem to want to give Michael Bush to get the rock more this year. If Bush runs good, McFadden could be seeing more of a split in the backfield, and that would be ugly. I wouldn't take this guy until mid-to-late second round.

Another guy that is overvalued is Shonn Greene. I really don't expect him to have that much more of a role in the Jets' backfield this year. He is going in the fourth round ahead of guys like Felix Jones, Knowshon Moreno, and Jahvid Best. All of the above are better options then Shonn Greene. Yeah, Greene's role is going to increase, but I don't think he should be drafted over guys who have locked up a starting job. Plus, Greene has had a pretty pathetic preseason. He shows me no reason to be drafting him in the fourth round.

Now we move on to the hardest position to pick players from: the wide receivers. With so much depth and so many players having great preseasons (not that I put a ton of stock into preseason, but I'm just saying that it is a great way to find ) it's a really hard decision as to what guys are going to be true sleepers. I have a lot more deep guys at the wide receiver position than I do at the running back position. I will probably do three undervalued (that's a tough choice to make) and one or two overvalued for the wide receivers.

My first undervalued wide receiver is a really deep sleeper by the name of Brian Robiskie. Sound familiar? Browns receiver. Ring a bell? No? Scored two touchdowns in the last two weeks last year? Here, let me Google that for you: http://lmgtfy.com/?q=Brian+Robiskie. That might help! He is the first wide receiver for the Cleveland Browns. He has had a fair preseason, and finished last season strongly. I think there is going to be a WR that Colt McCoy is going to hook up with all year, and I think that guy is going to be Brian Robiskie. A second guy? A deep sleeper TE Evan Moore. He is also having a good preseason.


Robiskie may just be my deepest sleeper for this year.
Now that you heard a deep sleeper, let's go with a familiar name now: Jerome Simpson. He is also a WR1 but for the Cincinnati Bengals. He has had a very quiet preseason although he blew up after Chad Ochocinco and Terrell Owens sat in the final two games of the 2010 regular season . He was activated in week 15 last year for his third time of the year (he was also active in weeks one and five). His first game (week 15) he didn't do much, only catching two passes for 30 yards. In the two weeks to follow he went off with a total of 247 yards and a combined three touchdowns. He is being drafted in a lot of leagues, and I am telling you right now to watch out for this guy during the season. I think he could come from nowhere and have a top 15 season with AJ Green playing opposite of him.

Don't worry Jerome, you won't miss him much.
My final sleeper is Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Andre Roberts. He is not being drafted in pretty much every league. He is the WR2 on the Cardinals official depth chart and with Kevin Kolb there and Larry Fitzgerald drawing the double team, Roberts could find some holes in the defense. If Kolb is looking for this guy, he could have a great season. He has had only 57 yards in the first three preseason games, but I expect him to have nice season playing opposite Fitzgerald.

Although there are a lot more sleeper WRs that I like (Darius Heyward-Bey, Anthony Armstrong, Michael Jenkins), I think we should move on to overvalued WRs. I am just going to real quickly run over a few guys I don't like for where you have to take them in the draft. Plaxico Burress is going way to high for me to take him right now. His ADP is in the eighth round ahead of Sidney Rice, Santana Moss, AJ Green, and Steve Smith from Carolina. I think Burress has upside, but only to a certain extent. Taking him in the eighth round with all of those guys on the board is absolute ridiculous. I wouldn't take Burress until around the 11th round in my draft.

My second and last overvalued WR is Vincent Jackson. Jackson is going in the mid second round right now ahead of Greg Jennings, Hakeem Nicks, and Mike Wallace. I think people are too high on this guy. I know he is very talented but you can't forget that Rivers has a top TE (Antonio Gates), Malcom Floyd, and a receiving running back (Ryan Matthews) who can all catch the ball. People are drafting Jackson way too high right now, and for no real reason.

That is all for my running backs and wide receivers. Come back Saturday for my rankings. Next week will be all about NFL predictions and other things. Not much fantasy except for overvalued and undervalued TEs. All of you drafting this weekend good luck with your draft and I hope to see you back next week, Until then you can follow me on Twitter @TheFFAddict: Link: http://twitter.com/#!/theffaddict.

All average draft positions are based on a ten man, non PPR, standard scoring league at fantasyfootballcalculator.com.






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