2011 NFL Playoff Predictions

Every year, right before the season, I like to predict the NFL playoffs as well as pick my Superbowl champion, just like most other football fans. Let's go ahead and do that, and if it is short enough we can move on to my stat leaders, If I don't have time for that then those predictions will be out on Tuesday.
Let's get started.

The sixth seed in the NFC will be the New Orleans Saints out of the NFC South with a record of 10-6. They didn't do much this off season with the exception of Mark Ingram. Just a side Wild Card note here: I have the Lions also going 10-6, but the Lions will lose the head to head with New Orleans.

With the fifth seed I have the Dallas Cowboys. The offense will be back with Romo back on the field, an improved secondary will help defend the passing game, and with an explosive offense as always, I project the Cowboys to go 11-5. That being said, we know the Cowboys have let their fans down the last couple of years; they were projected to have a great year and then screw the pooch. Expect the Cowboys to have a much better season this year.

Now our first division winner comes from the NFC West where the Kevin Kolb led Arizona Cardinals win their division by one game. They added Kevin Kolb from the Eagles in the off season as expected, and I anticipate them to have a much better year. I have the Cardinals winning the division with a 9-7 record, beating out the Rams by a small margin of only one game. Maybe 2012 will be the year for Bradford and the young St.Louis Rams.

In the three spot I have the Philadelphia Eagles from the NFC East. They had a great off season adding Jason Babin, Nnamdi Asomugha (no, I didn't have to search that name up), Cullen Jenkins, and a blockbuster Kolb for Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. Their defense has improved a ton, and they could be an extreme powerhouse this year if they can figure out their problems at the offensive line. That all being said, I have the Eagles down for 12-4.

In the two spot, from the NFC South, I have the Atlanta Falcons, led by Matty Ice.  Just like the Saints, the Falcons made no big moves, but added some young depth. You may want to look out for Julio Jones this season; he has tremendous athletic ability and can score from anywhere on the field. I have the Falcons also going 12-4 but winning the match up with the Eagles to give them the first round bye and home field for the first game.

And the first seed in the NFC is the Green Bay Packers. They have kept nearly all of their Superbowl team from last year and are any people's Superbowl favorite. Jermicahel Finley, AJ Hawk, and Ryan Grant are all ready to go after being placed on IR last season. This might just be the best offense in the NFL this year with a two-man backfield and Aaron Rodgers under center. I have the Packers down to go 14-2 only losing at the Giants and at the Chargers.

With the sixth seed in the AFC is the New York Jets. A little difference from last year with a few added veterans and a new receiving core around Santonio Holmes. I have the Jets going 11-5, and taking second in the AFC East. Could this be the year of the "Sanchise"? I guess we will have to wait and see.

The fifth seed in the AFC from the AFC North with a 12-4 record is the Baltimore Ravens. Last year they made it to the divisional round and couldn't come up with a game winning drive against the Steelers: they were also my Superbowl pick last year. That being said, I think they will have another great season this year, and be in contention to get to the Superbowl.
The Texans have come close to the playoffs a number of times since becoming a franchise in 2002, but this is the year. Arian Foster is going to lead the Texans to win the AFC South and claim the fourth seed in the AFC with a 10-6 record. The Colts will finish a game behind with a record of 9-7.

The third seed in the AFC is the Chargers from the AFC West. They always seem to be over hyped, but they seemed to have fixed the problems on special teams so if they can minimize mistakes these team could be extremely good. I have them going 12-4 and winning their division by three games. Maybe Norv Turner can finally get to the Superbowl this year.


With the second seed I have the Pittsburgh Steelers. They have been to the Superbowl the last two years, and Mike Tomlin knows what he is doing. I have the Steelers going 13-3. I expect Big Ben to have a great season and win the division for the fourth time in the last five years.


Then the final seed (as many expected) is the New England Patriots. They have had made the playoffs eight times in the past ten years, and I expect them to make it nine out of  eleven. They made improvements on their offensive line and in the secondary and picked up some good depth in the draft. I have them going 14-2 and I wouldn't doubt it. Patriots are going to be good, real good.

Now we move on to the good part: my playoff predictions. Now if you don't know how this works, the first round is called the Wild Card Round, the second round is the Divisional Round, and the round before the Superbowl is the Conference Championship. In the Wildcard Round the sixth seeded team in each conference plays the third seeded team in the same conference while the fourth and fifth seeds from the same conference play each other. The winner of those games advance to the Divisional Round where the lowest seed to advance in each conference plays the highest seed. The winner of those advance to the conference championship, and then the Superbowl. I'd hope, if you are American, you would already know that...but I thought I would help you out if you didn't.


Wildcard Round

In the NFC Wildcard round lets start with the Saints vs Eagles. I think Brees and the Saints will put up a fight, but Eagles will pull off in the end: Eagles 31, Saints 20.

Then in the second wild card game for the NFC is the Cowboys vs Cardinals. I think the Cowboys pass all over the Cardinals, and humiliate their offense: Cowboys 38, Cardinals 17.

Next we shift to the AFC where the Jets take on the Chargers. I think this will be the best game we see in the playoffs but Norv Turner and the Chargers will lose in overtime: Chargers 27, Jets 24



The second game for the AFC is the Ravens vs the Texans. Now I think this may be a good game as well. I really like the Ravens, but at the same time Houston can attack in a lot of different ways. I'm going to take the Ravens, but just by a hair: Ravens 27, Texans 24.

 Divisonal Round

So like I said, after the wildcard round we move to the divisional round. The first game in the NFC is the Packers taking on the Cowboys. I think Cowboys will put up a fight at the beginning, but the Packers offense will be too much for the Cowboys young secondary: Packers 34, Cowboys 24.


The second game in the NFC is the Eagles taking on the Falcons for the second time of the season. The Falcons got the first round bye because they won the head to head matchup in week two of the regular season. But who can win it later in the season? I think the Falcons will find a way to contain Vick and McCoy and end up winning this one: Falcons 20, Eagles 14.


Then we move over to the AFC where the Chargers take on the Patriots. Rivers make an attempt for a comeback at the end, but I think the Patriots will hold on: Patriots 37, Chargers 30.

The final divisional match-up is the Ravens and the Steelers; another divisional rivalry. This is going to be another great game. I really like both of these teams this year but I think Ravens will win it on a game winning field goal: Ravens 16, Steelers 14.


Conference Championships

One last game. One more win to get to that Superbowl from here. In the NFC we have the Packers vs the Falcons and in the AFC the Patriots vs the Ravens. So who's it going to be?


In the NFC there is the Packers vs the Falcons that will be played in Green Bay. This was the match-up we saw last year in the divisional round. The Packers prevailed, and later went on the Superbowl. The Packers, with their team healthy, are going to make it past the Falcons with a little help from their defense: Packers 30, Falcons 20.


In the AFC it will be the Ravens taking on the Patriots. The Patriots, with only two losses all year, and Brady are really going to step up in this one. But I think the Ravens will make big plays on defense that will bring home an AFC Championship: Ravens 27, Patriots 21.


Superbowl XLVI
The long journey, all season these two teams fought to get here. Packers for the second straight time. Ravens for the first time in over 10 years. Both looking for a championship. Both teams have the defense, but the Packers have the more dominant offense with Aaron Rodgers. So, my 2011-2012 Superbowl Champions are the Green Bay Packers by a score of 24 to 17. The MVP is Aaron Rodgers, and the Packers bring the championship back to Green Bay for the second straight year.


Since this has been such a long post, at the beginning of the next blog on Tuesday I will give you guys my selection for the stat leaders. Also, Wednesday I will be releasing my week one fantasy rankings. But until then, don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TheFFAddict, and you can always email me any questions or comments to cshardy@att.net. Also, don't forget to leave a comment on this blog and follow this blog. Thanks!

2011 Fantasy Football: Quarterback Sleepers

After a bland weekend in the world of sports (except for those Little League World Series fans..), I'm going to waste no time getting to my preseason quarterback wrap-up for this year. For every position I will name two to three undervalued players, two overvalued players, and one or two deep sleepers. Quarterback was by far my hardest position to pick these guys since there are the least amount of injuries at the quarterback position, but let's get started.


My first undervalued quarterback for 2011 is Sam Bradford. The first overall pick in last year's draft, had a nice rookie campaign despite his 76.5 quarterback rating. Even with #1 wide receiver Donnie Avery out for the year, he spread the ball around and reminded many people of a young Peyton Manning (I was one of them). But this year he is going to be even better, in my opinion. He now has more targets, as well as a year under his belt and an entire training camp to learn the new offense. Bradford now has an extra addition to the team Mike Sims-Walker, he made Danny Amdendola a somebody last year, and now has Donnie Avery back in the mix. I wouldn't be surprised if the kid throws for over 4,000 yards this season.



Another good, undervalued pick that people are starting to scavenge is Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford. He has become everyone's new fantasy sleeper. Stafford went from being drafted in the 11th round in fantasy drafts to the 9th round since May 8th and is still on the rise. While I still don't trust him as a starter quite yet, I do think he is a very strong backup. Although he was injured the majority of the 2010 campaign, Stafford showed some immense talent in the games that he played. Of course, Calvin Johnson, Nate Burleson, Titus Young, and a much improved Maurice Stovall won't hurt his talent. Look for Stafford to finish among the top 10 QBs in fantasy points this year, and on some teams, be a started byt eh end of the year. Although I like him a lot, if you grab an elite QB in your draft you should sell high on Stafford in the regular season and get another RB/WR. He is known to get injured often, and if he has the hot hand and you've got back up then sell high on him.

One last undervalued guy (this one should be short and sweet) is Kyle Orton. I don't see why he goes so late in drafts this year. Broncos have been prominent that Orton will be the starter in Denver, Tebow has dropped to the third string role according to Pro Football Talk, and Brady Quinn is Brady Quinn. This guy's team has remained the same with the exception of losing some minor receivers to the Redskins. But to level that out, Orton has a healthy Moreno that has great pass-catching ability. In a 10 man league on fantasyfootballcalculator.com, Orton's average draft position (ADP) is in the 13th round after guys like Cassel, Kolb, and Bradford. This guy had a great season in Denver last year and I guess I don't see why people are so down on him this year.

Now my deep sleeper that was my sleeper even before the preseason is Colt McCoy. McCoy has been moving up many fantasy owners' draft board because of his excellent performances since the first preseason game. I have liked this guy ever since he joined the NFL and started believing in him even more when he became the starter and lit it up at the end of last season. I'm not saying you should expect 4,000 yards from this guy, but you can usually grab him in the last few rounds of your draft and I think that will be great value for a backup quarterback that has full potential (see 2010) of becoming a top fantasy quarterback.

That concludes my quarterback sleepers article, come back tomorrow for some overvalued quarterbacks and some undervalued running backs. Until then, you can follow me on Twitter: http://twitter.com/#!/theffaddict or email me at cshardy@att.net.

Note: All ADPs the writer will be using in this series of undervalued and overvalued players will be taken from fantasyfootballcalculator.com and you can check them out here: http://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp.php