Alot of people don't like Adrian Peterson. he's on the decline, he has a bad quarterback situation, just a couple of things people say. But he is as consistent as it gets when it comes to fantasy football. Some don't like Jamaal Charles. He shares carries, he fumbles the ball a lot when Chris Johnson fumbled just as much as him in 2010. Arian Foster is even criticized as a one year wonder.
But what do these guys have that Chris Johnson don't? Consistency. The ultimate key to fantasy football.
Peterson dipped under seven points only one time the entire season when he was active (he sat out one game). Arian Foster? Also only two times. Jamaal Charles? Twice. All of these guys beat "CJ1.3K" in fantasy points. How many games did Chris Johnson drop under seven points last year? Six. Three times more than any of the other top four running backs.
Do you really want your first round pick to be that inconsistent? To go along with that, Chris Johnson may be a hold out despite Titans GM Mike Reinfeldt stating he will be the highest paid RB in the league if he reports to camp. That's another risk I don't want to take on this guy with my first round pick.
You don't want to base it all on inconsistency? Well Foster, Peterson, and Charles all had more overall fantasy points last year then Chris Johnson. Although sharing with Thomas Jones, Charles still finished with 100 more rushing yards than Chris Johnson, who had no one to compete with in the Titans backfield. To go with the Charles argument, he had 45 receptions (one more than Chris Johnson) and averaged over 10 yards per reception, while Chris Johnson averaged 5.6 yards. Not to mention that Arian Foster beat both of these guys by over 20 receptions finishing the season with 66, averaging over nine yards on each reception.
One big thing that was going for Charles last year was his incredible, near record breaking, 6.4 yards per carry. Adrian Peterson averaged 4.6 YPC, and Foster averaged 4.9. Chris Johnson averaged his worst of his career, a measly 4.3 YPC.
Then my last piece of evidence is the ugly quarterback situation in Tennessee. Matt Hasselbeck is the starting QB in Tennessee after an off-season acquisition. It is a better situation for Johnson than last year, but not nearly good enough. But if defenses aren't already putting 8 in the box against Chris Johnson, then they will be if Hasselbeck goes down and Jake Locker is under center. Once rookie quarterback Jake Locker is in the game, defenses will absolutely come for Johnson by putting eight in the box all the time. Let's look at the one game that Rusty Smith started last year. Chris Johnson had his worst game of the year going seven for five with a big goose egg for fantasy points.
I know you can argue against the situation in Minnesota too. I do think that could cause Adrian Peterson trouble too, but if he can stay healthy then he is an all-purpose back and can get through a tough QB situation, as you have seen in the past.
All of this is why you, as an educated fantasy scholar, should not draft Chris Johnson with a top three pick in the draft.
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