Last week, the first week of NFL byes, was pretty awful. Just like I predicted, there was a lot of coin-flip games, and well, I had the wrong side of the coin. My record for my game picks was 8-5. This, in my opinion, was my worst week yet. But, I'm going to come back this week and I'll rectify those losses. There should be some great games this week, and we're just starting to learn teams true identity.
Remember, the matchup (Eagles @ Redskins) will be linked to the ESPN Preview, so feel free to click on that. Also, the starts/sits aren't guys I would literally start and sit, but rather, guys that I expect to over perform (start) or under perform (sit). You can see the lines and over/under that I use here. With all of that said, let's get this show rolling.
St.Louis Rams @ Green Bay Packers
1:00 PM EST - FOX
Line: Paackers by 14
Over/Under: 47.5
Start
Jordy Nelson - I know that a lot of people are jumping on James Jones, but I think both of these games that he has scored double digits have been flukes. If I have the choice between Nelson and Jones, then I am going with Nelson. Both should have good games though.
Sit
Steven Jackson - Jackson free-falled all the way to 26th in my running back rankings this week. It is clear that I do not like him. Not only are the Rams going to be trying for a comeback all game, but the Packers have a very good run defense; they average only 13.8 points to opposing running backs. I wouldn't want to be starting him this week, and if you are, well, good luck.
Ryan Grant - See Starks, James.
Pick: Packers 30, Rams 10
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Pittsburgh Steelers
1:00 PM EST - CBS
Line: Pittsburgh by 12
Over/Under: 40
Start
Antonio Brown - I think that the Jaguars take Mike Wallace away in this game with their very underrated pass defense, and that is going to open the field for Antonio Brown who had an off week last week. Look for Brown to score around 70 yards and find the end zone for the first time this year.
Sit
Mike Wallace - See Brown, Antonio.
Mike Thomas - This one is pretty obvious, but I just wanted to make it clear. For starters, Blaine Gabbert is throwing him the ball. He has not only been struggling, but now he is going up against one of the toughest defenses in the league. Plus, the Steelers allow just 11.2 points to opposing wide receivers per game! Yeah, I'm not seeing a good game for Thomas is this one.
Pick: Steelers 24, Jaguars 13
Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Redskins
1:00 PM EST - FOX
Line: Eagles by 3
Over/Under: 47
Start
Jabar Gaffney - It's not the number one receiver that the Eagles are having trouble defending, it is the guys around top receiver that the Eagles can't defend. Gaffney has put up decent flex points week in and week out (11,6,6,6 are his point totals in the first four weeks), but I think that this is the week that he finds the endzone. I also like Fred Davis in this game against the Philadelphia linebackers.
Ryan Torain - We all know that the Eagles' rush defense is really bad, so if Torain gets the carries (and I think he will), he should have a beneficial performance. Before the Redskins' bye, Torain led the way with 19 carries, 135 yards, and a touchdown. Like I said, if he can get the carries, he will have a big game against this defense.
Sit
Tim Hightower/Roy Helu - With the emergence of Torain, these two guys are going to see very little work and we don't know what Shanahan has in store for them. If you start either of these guys then you are just praying for a touchdown, and there aren't many to go around for the Redskins as a whole.
Pick: Redskins 30, Eagles 28
San Francisco 49ers @ Detroit Lions
1:00 PM EST - FOX
Line: Lions by 3
Over/Under: 46
Start
Titus Young - Look. by no means is this a safe call, but it is a high upside, very deep call. If you are fishing for a receiver and this guy is on the waivers then he might have some value going up against one of the weakest pass defenses in the NFL (24th). Michael Crabtree - The Lions don't have a great pass defense (14th, 17.8 points to opposing wide receivers) and I expect to see a lot of balls thrown Crabtree's way.
Sit
Jahvid Best - The 49ers have been gobbling up running backs' fantasy value every week. They average only 7.2 points to opposing wide receivers, and before the huge run last week, Jahvid Best hasn't looked all that great. Best is a flex at best, and that means you are banking on a touchdown.
Nate Burleson - He has been almost non-existent in the passing game this year (two points in the last three weeks), and I don't expect a turn around this week.
Pick: Lions 27, 49ers 20
Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons
1:00 PM EST - FOX
Line: Atlanta by 4
Over/Under: 50.5
Start
Michael Turner - Without a doubt, you are starting this guy every week. But as I said in my Bank/Tank, ESPN ranked him 8th against one of the worst fantasy run defenses in the league. I expect a 15-20 point game from Turner in this one.
Steve Smith - Brent Grimes hasn't been able to hold down a single #1 wide receiver yet this year. Greg Jennings and Jeremy Maclin (while Jackson was injured) both beat Grimes all day, and guess who is going to be on Smith? Let's just say that his last name rhymes with times...
Sit
Carolina Running Backs - Falcons run defense isn't stellar, but it doesn't matter who the Panthers are playing. You should be keeping both of these guys every week unless one starts to stand out.
Harry Douglas - Some people are picking this guy up, and even starting him!? Did Douglas do anything last year when there was no Julio Jones? Didn't think so. What's so different about him coming in this year. Look for Tony Gonzalez to be more productive though.
Pick: Panthers 27, Falcons 24
Indianapolis Colts @ Cincinnati Bengals
1:00 PM EST - CBS
Line: Bengals by 7
Over/Under: 41
Start
All of your Bengals - I can't believe I am saying this (I really can't), but every single guy on this team should be started in the right situation. Benson broke my top ten again, AJ Green is consistently scoring double digit fantasy points, and Jermaine Gresham has touchdowns in two games straight. Andy Dalton isn't a bad go either if you are really digging deep.
Pierre Garcon - If you haven't figured it out, every time that Curtis Painter throws the ball it goes to Garcon. I think that is enough to put him in the "start" section.Sit
All of your Colts- Curtis Painter has no value from a fantasy standpoint, Wayne might be a decent flex, but I say no, and the running backs (Brown and Carter) are going to be in a split. To go along with those four guys, Dallas Clark has been completely forgotten by the Colts' quarterbacks. I'll tell you what though, I would start Donald Brown before I started Delone Carter. Brown looked great after Addai went down last week and Carter was ridiculous. Brown is the only guy I would consider starting.
Pick: Bengals 23, Colts 16
Buffalo Bills @ New York Giants
1:00 PM EST - CBS
Line: Giants by 3
Over/Under: 50
Start
Ahmad Bradshaw - Brandon Jacobs is out again, and the Giants have a sweet matchup. Enough said.
Jake Ballard - He has scored two touchdowns in his last two games. If you're looking for a tight end, then I think you have found your guy.
Sit
Ryan Ftizpatrick - He has put up single digits in two straight games, and at this point, I don't think that he is a fantasy starter.
Mario Manningham - The job is all for Victor Cruz. Cruz is getting more snaps, and a lot more targets, than Manningham. Cruz has had three big games in a row, and Manningham has done nothing. Is that enough for you? I hope so.
Pick: Bills 30, Giants 23
Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens
4:05 PM EST - CBS
Line: Ravens by 8
Over/Under: 45
Start
Torrey Smith - Anquan Boldin should be taken care of by Johnathan Joesph and that is going to leave Smith to Kareem Jackson, one of the worst starting corner backs that is starting in the NFL.
Owen Daniels - While the Ravens take care of the wide receivers, I think Daniels could find a hole or two in the Ravens' defense.
Sit
All of your Texans - The Ravens have ravaged their opponents, allowing only one touchdown to opposing offenses when they are at home. I'm not sure it's going to be much different this week. As you see in the score below, I think the Texans will score only one touchdown tomorrow.
Anquan Boldin - See Smith, Torrey
Pick: Ravens 24, Texans 19
Cleveland Browns @ Oakland Raiders
4:05 PM EST - CBS
Line: Raiders by 6.5
Over/Under: 44.5
Start
Greg Little - The Raiders' pass defense is really bad (30th), and they have allowed over 23 points to opposing wide receivers. The Browns announced that Little would take the wide receiver number two spot this week, so this is Little's chance to show his coaches what he can do. His snap count will increase very little, but I think you are going to see more balls flying Little's way.
Darrius Heyward-Bey - The last two weeks he has been stellar and the while the Browns have the best passing defense in the league, I think we are going to see more coverage go more Denarius Moore's way.
Other: Darren McFadden
Sit
Jason Campbell - As I said earlier, the Browns have the best pass defense in the league (yardage wise). I think that is a bad sign for Campbell even though he has played well at home this year.
Denarius Moore - See Heyward-Bey, Darrius.
Pick: Raiders 27, Browns 23
Dallas Cowboys @ New England Patriots
4:15 PM EST - FOX
Line: Patriots by 6.5
Over/Under: 55.5
Start
Wes Welker - The Cowboys have no one who can cover this guy, and unless they get a lot of pressure on Brady, Welker is going to shred this defense into little bits and pieces.
Sit
All Running Backs - To kick it off, this game is going to be a shootout, and the ball isn't going to be on the ground when it's a quarterback's duel. Did you order a side of tough run defense? The Cowboys are the number one rush defense in the league. I expect very little from the "Lawfirm"
Jason Witten - You still have to start this guy, but I am worried sick about that fact that the Patriots shut down Antonio Gates. I, in fact, am still starting Witten in my main league. So I still have faith, I just think that you need to temper your expectations.
Pick: Cowboys 30, Patriots 27 (OT)
New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
4:15 PM EST - FOX
Line: Saints by 5
Over/Under: 49.5
Start
Darren Sproles - He is now an every week start. In four of his five games he has gone over double digits in fantasy points. The matchup is favorable, Sproles is playing well; I think you're going to see a good game from Sproles in this one.
Sit
Mike Williams - He hasn't done anything thus far in the 2011 season. I am sitting Mike Williams in every league for now, and hopefully we will see a turn around soon with the type of talent that Williams has.
Josh Freeman - Just like Mike Williams, Freeman just isn't producing. This offense is in a trap right now, and it's going to be tough for them to dig their way out of it.
Pick: Saints 28, Buccaneers 13
Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Beanrs
8:27 PM EST -NBC
Line: Bears by 2.5
Over/Under: 41.5
Start
Jay Cutler - If he can handle the pressure from the Vikings, they have a very rough secondary. They only allow 13.6 points to opposing quarterbacks, but don't be fooled: Last week Kolb scored only two points against them, and in week two Freeman had just 12. The quality quarterbacks that have taken on this team have been very productive.
Johnny Knox - Gut call here, and that is really all I have to say. He didn't show up last week, and I think he wants to rectify that this week. If you are looking for a flex, this could be your guy.
Sit
Matt Forte - The Vikings have the fifth run defense in the league, including the fourth best fantasy run defense. I am not literally sitting Forte, but I would limit your expectations.
Percy Harvin - The Bears aren't allowing touchdowns through the air (3), and Harvin isn't finding the end zone any time soon. To add on to all of that, McNabb has looked awful in these past two weeks in terms of passing the football. Keep Harvin on your bench until he scores some substantial points.
Pick: Bears 20, Vikings 14
Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets
Monday, 8:37 PM EST - ESPN
Line: Jets by 7
Over/Under: 42.5
Start
Santonio Holmes - The Dolphins have a bad pass defense (the numbers lie), and I think Mark Sanchez is going to torch this defense. Find a spot for Holmes in your lineup.
Daniel Thomas - If he is going to play through the injury, the Jets' rush defense has looked really bad in recent weeks. Usually when you see that your running back is playing Rex Ryan's defense, your run away from it, but lately that isn't the case. Stick Thomas in your lineup, depending on news you get Monday night.Sit
Reggie Bush - The only way I like him is if Daniel Thomas is out. Other than that, Thomas is getting all of the carries for this team right now and Bush is no longer part of this offense.
Brandon Marshall - Darrelle Revis, Matt Moore, and the Meadowlands don't mix. Marshall has been shut down by Revis in the past, and do you expect much Moore (pun intended) this week?
Pick: Jets 34, Dolphins 13
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Thanks for reading. Don't forget to check out my rankings for your positional start and sits, and make sure to look at the Injury Report for all of the most important injury news and notes. If you have any other questions or comments on a players' status for Sundays' game, then check out my Twitter or just shoot me an email. Gabe will have his pickup article out on Monday, so look for that, but until then, go win your match up!
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