By: Christian Hardy
The week leading up to the lineup of games in week 8 was quite hectic, as always. There were probably, oh, 2,000 injuries or so (just a number I'm throwing out there..), then there was "Tebowing", and then finally there was the World Series, and what a World Series it was. I know you are asking, "Seriously, baseball?" Yes. The series was one of the best ever, and there is no denying it. So, let's salute. Let's sail away from baseball and jump right onto football.
We've got the NFL worst, Rams, taking on one of the highest flying teams in football right now, the Saints. We also have the Lions heading over to Mile High to take on Tim Tebow; not the Broncos, but just Tim Tebow. Then on Sunday night we have one of the most heated rivalries in the NFL today in the Eagles-Cowboys tilt. Last but not least, on Monday Night we have the Chiefs, in Arrowhead Stadium, taking on the San Diego Chargers. With all of that being said, let's move on to some of the games for this week.
I just wanted to give you guys a real quick heads up on what is going on this week for this article. Taylor Stuber (@TaylorStuber on Twitter) has given me is picks, so when you see "Christian's Pick" on one line, and then "Taylor's pick" on the other, those are each of our separate picks. On my twitter feed, there will be updates on our win-loss record for the week. Also, I am not going to do "What I am Watching for" on every game, unless there is things to watch in those games. So the games that matter (example: Steelers vs Patriots) will have something to watch. Otherwise, it will just be the line, the over/under, game time, and start/sits. If you click out the title of the game then you will be redirected to the Pro Football Focus game preview for that game. Let's get started.
1:00 PM EST - CSB
Line: Titans by 8.5
Over/Under: 43.5
Start
Matt Hasselbeck - Hasselbeck hasn't been putting up great numbers (and that could of been expected) with a combined 16 points in his last two games, and four points in his last game. This week, against the Colts, he has a great matchup, and I would have to imagine that he will comeback and make a statement against the same defense that was ripped apart by Drew Brees last week. To go along with all of that, the Colts have allowed 14 passing touchdowns this year. If you've got Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, or Josh Freeman on bye, then Hasselbeck might be your quarterback.
Chris Johnson - Well, Johnson has been terrible. I'll give you that. Rather he has an undisclosed injury, or is just out of shape; he doesn't look like Chris Johnson. But, like I said about Matt Hasselbeck, the Colts' defense is awful. Last week, against the Saints, the Colts allowed 47 points to the Saints' running backs and they have allowed over 20 points per game to opposing running backs. If Chris Johnson is going to have a big game, this is the week to do it.
Sit
Indianapolis Colts' Running Backs - Is Addai going to be active? If Donald Brown going to steal some carries? How much is Carter going to be used with/without Addai? Can the offense produce enough to put them into the situation to run? Too many questions and I don't want to be stuck with a big fat goose egg. Stay away!
Dallas Clark - If this guy isn't a free agent then he should be. Two goose eggs in his last three games? Yeah, he should not be in your lineup. If you can't find a better option then you must be in a twenty team league.
Christian's Pick: Titans 24, Colts 13
Taylor's Pick: Titans 27, Colts 21
1:00 PM EST - FOX
Line: Saints by 13.5
Over/Under: 47.5
What I'm Watching For
1. Are the Saints going to put up 62 points? Ok, joking, joking, but can they win this game by 30 points? The Saints, Drew Brees specifically, are on fire and the Rams...aren't. Look for the Saints to light up the scoreboard, more of this to come in the "starts" down below. I'm interested to see how the Saitns use both Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles with Mark Ingram inactive.
2. How much is Brandon Lloyd? Could he see his first touchdown as a Ram? He saw a lot of passes flying his was last week, and I wouldn't be surprised if he gets 10+ targets for the second straight game, but how many of those he catches with AJ Feeley under center? I'll set the over/under at five. I do like Lloyd this week because the Saints' have such a bad defense (12 passing touchdowns allowed) and the Rams will be throwing the ball in their attempt to come from behind.
Start
Marques Colston - The Rams have allowed a league leading eleven touchdowns to wide receivers. Colston has three in has last three touchdowns in his last two games after coming back from injury. This guy is going to have a big game against the weak defense of the Rrams.
Pierre Thomas - With Ingram out, Thomas could become the feature back for this offense for one week. We know that Sproles won't be able to take a large workload because his size won't allow him to do that. Thomas could see a lot of work in both aspects of the game: receiving and rushing.
Sit
Jimmy Graham - OK, you are obvsiously not sitting him, so don't get all antsy. Don't look now, but the Rams actually are good at one thing on defense: defending tight ends. I'm not sure they will be able to contain Graham but they have kept Jason Witten, Jermichael Finley and Fred Davis all in check. Limit your expectations for Graham, as far as this week goes.
Saints Wide Receivers after Colston - Lance Moore? No thanks. He has just 16 points in the last four games. Robert Meachem? Nope. Only seven points in their last three points. Devery Henderson? I'll pass. Two points in the last four game, and he really hasn't done anything. Stay away from all of these overrated Saints' receivers.
Christian's Pick: Saints 38, Rams 13
Taylor's Pick: Saints 31, Rams 7
1:00 PM EST - CBS
Line: Giants by 9.5
Over/Under: 42
Start
Mario Manningham - The Dolphins have inproved greatly since week one on their defense against wide receivers, but with Vontae Davis out again, Manningham is going to see the the likes of Will Allen and Nolan Carroll. I like Manningham this week, especially in a PPR.
Sit
Ahmad Bradshaw - Brandon Jacobs is probable in this game, and we know that Tom Coughlin likes to get him the ball. Bradshaw already hasn't been performing great other than the three touchdown game that he had in week six (eight points and nine points before that performance). The Dolphins, surprisingly, aren't terrible against opposing running backs; they only allow 14 points per game to opposing running backs. I don't love Bradshaw this week, but you've gotta keep him in your lineup.
Reggie Bush - Looks like Daniel Thomas is going to be back from that hamstring injury and he should be back into the lead back spot. Keep Reggie on the bench because he isn't doing anything that makes him worthy of a pizza.
Christian's Pick: Giants 20, Dolphins 13
Taylor's Pick: Giants 21, Dolphins 17
1:00 PM EST - FOX
Line: Panthers by 3
Over/Under: 46.5
Start
Adrian Peterson - The Panthers are really, really, awful against opposing running backs. They are 30th against opposing running backs which don't include any stellar running backs outside of Michael Turner. I expect 20+ points from All Day this week, and maybe even a win from the Vikings.
Christian Ponder/Michael Jenkins -See Bank/Tank
Sit
Greg Olsen - Turf toe and a big goose egg in his last game? I'm concerned, and if you have another option that might be serviceable then I would put him in the lineup.
Percy Harvin - I'm concerned about the injuries to the ribs because if he takes a shot in the wrong place then he could be out for the game. I'm not even sure if it is worth the risk in the first place. He has hit double digits only once this year, and that was because of his part in the rushing game. Keep Harvin on the bench for this week.
Christian's Pick: Vikings 27, Panthers 24
Taylor's Pick: Vikings 30, Panthers 21
1:00 PM EST - FOX
Line: Ravens by 12.5
Over/Under: 43
Start
Joe Flacco - I know he has been really bad, so it is hard to stick him in your lineup; I understand where you're coming from with that. Now, let's focus on this week. The Cardinals have one of the worst pass defenses in the league. Last week they were torn apart by Big Ben for five touchdowns (!) and they have allowed 18.7 points to opposing quarterbacks this year. Flacco should be a solid start for this week.
Anquan Boldin - See Flacco, Joe.
Sit
Beanie Wells - Even if he is active, he isn't going to get a full workload with the swelling that has shown up in his knee. Baltimore has only allowed 10.5 points to opposing running backs this year, and with the injury and the timeshare, there is not way I see Wells going for over five points in this one.
Larry Fitzgerald - Kevin Kolb finally bounced back last week with over 250 yards and two touchdowns against the Steelers (that impressed me, none the less), and what did Fitzgerald do? Well, he stayed quiet with only 78 yards. Fitz hasn't found the endzone since week three; against the Ravens, who have allowed only two touchdowns to opposing wide receivers in three games at home this year, I don't think he is anymore than a wide receiver no.2 for this week.
Christian's Picks: Ravens 24, Cardinals 10
Taylor's Picks: Ravens 27, Cardinals 13
1:00 PM EST - CBS
Line: Texans by 9.5
Over/Under: 40.5
Start
Jason Hill - This is a super deep sleeper for this week, but he almost cracked my top 30 wide receivers for the week, which makes him a deep flex. Johnathan Joseph is going to be on the wide outs, rather than Hill who is going to find himself in the slot most of the time. So, Hill will either see Kareem Jackson or a safety that is not named Danieal Manning, who is out for atleast four weeks. Hill is a sneaky/deep flex.
Owen Daniels - See Bank/Tank. With Andre Johnson out, Daniels is going to see a lot of looks again, against a team that isn't too great against opposing tight ends.
Sit
Texans' Wide Receivers - While Andre Johnson has been recovering from his hamstring, no one has stepped up at the wide receiver position for the Texans. Kevin Walter had one game where he came up with 14 points, then dropped under double digits for two straight and Jacoby Jones also had one big game and hasn't shown up in the other two games. I don't like either of these guys, and if you are starting either of them then you have to be desperate.
Matt Schaub - You want to hear a surprising stat? The Jaguars have only allowed just under 13 points to opposing quarterbacks this year. Something that no one is really talking about, and since Andre Johnson is out once against, I am doubting Schaub as your starter for this week.
Christian's Pick: Texans 27, Jaguars 20
Taylor's Pick: Texans 20, Jaguars 17
4:05 PM EST - FOX
Line: Bills by 4.5
Over/Under: 45.5
Things I'm Watching For
1. Who is going to get the rock the most for the Redskins' run game? I'm sure it isn't going to matter in that Shanahan backfield, but the first game with no Tim Hightower will give us a sense of who is going to be the guy you want in your lineup from week to week.
2. Is Jabar Gaffney going to benefit from Snatana Moss' injury, or is he going to flop when he sees more coverage as the number one wide receiver. I'm sure we won't know through just one week, but we will get a good idea of how they want to use Gaffney.
Start
Redskins Running Backs - I know it is a huge risk, but the Bills are putrid against the run. I think Torain is going to be favored in carries and snaps, but we could see Helu do a lot with the carries that he gets. I expect Helu to get about 10 touches, and Torain to get close to 20 and against the Bills' rush defense (24th in fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs).
David Nelson - Redskins have played good pass defense against wide receivers, allowing only 16.7 points per game. However, on the last two games they have given up nine points or more to the second wide receiver on the opposing team (LaFell went for 39 yards and a touchdown and Maclin went for 101 yards). I like Nelson to find the endzone this week, and get around 60 yards to go along with that.
Sit
Ryan Fitzpatrick - The Redskins allow only 14 points to opposing quarterbacks this season and that is similar to the points that Fitzpatrick has produced in his last three games. With only 29 points in a stretch of three games, it's hard to like this guy coming into week 8. See more in the Bank/Tank.
Both D/STs - I think this could definitely be a shootout, and neither of these defenses has been good for fantasy thus far, so if you need a defense then this is not the right way to go.
Christian's Pick: Redskins 21, Bills 20
Taylor's Pick: Redskins 21, Bills 14
4:05 PM EST - FOX
Line: Lions by2
Over/Under: 41.5
What I'm Watching For
1. Tebowing. That's what were all here for. To watch Tim Tebow throw the football around on Sunday. If you ask me, I think he completely swings the way he performed last Sunday and starts making more accurate throws to his receivers against the Lions. Of course, the Lions have a much better defense than the Dolphins, but that doesn't matter. It's Tim Tebow. He can do it all.
2. I want to see how many snaps Titus Young is going to get, and if he is going to become a part of this offense in 2011. This is a game where the supporting cast around Calvin Johnson is going to have to step up, because they aren't going to be able to depend on Megatron to win every game for them. Last week, after a rote running mistake, Young was benched and only saw 14 snaps the entire game. I would like to see that change this week, and I really want to see more balls flying Young's way. Along with Young, I want to see how Champ Bailey matches up with Calvin Johnson and if he can be the first corner to keep him contained. Champ did a good job with Marshall last week, but Megatron could be a whole other story.
Start
Tim Tebow - He might not be the greatest real life quarterback, but fantasy wise he is amazing. With the running ability he has, and the plays designed just for him to run (and at the goal line too), he is a must start unless you have an elite quarterback on your team.
Demaryius Thomas - With 10 targets last week in Tebow's debut, I expect to see a lot more from Thomas in the future, and when I say future I mean sooner, rather than later. He is a big physical wideout that can go up and get it, and with the injury to Chris Houston (top corner for the Lions), Tebow could get a lot better looks at Thomas.
Sit
Lions' Running Backs - Neither running back is getting the lions' share of the carries (no pun intended..ok, a little pun intended) as we saw last week. With Jahvid Best out, I don't expect Maurice Morris or Keiland Williams break into double digit fantasy points unless they can find the endzone, and I wouldn't want to depend on that from these two.
Knowshon Moreno - With Willis McGahee ruled out with a broken hand, we could see Moreno get his rightful job back this week...or we could see a complete disaster against the fourth best fantasy rush defense. Moreno is a decent flex for this week, but I wouldn't go too far over the top.
Christian's Pick: Broncos 30, Lions 24
Taylor's Pick: Lions 34, Broncos 10
4:15 PM EST - CBS
Line: Patriots 2.5
Over/Under: 52.5
Things I'm Watching For
1. Who's defense is going to step up? The Patriots acn't stop the pass, the Steelers can't stop the run! Are either of these two going to finally step up their game on defense? Or are they just going to let the offense push them around? I will be interesting to watch these two offenses play the opposing defenses because they are so different in their own ways.
2. Devin McCourty versus Mike Wallace. No one has been able to stay with Mike Wallace yet this year, and I'd be shocked if it changes against McCourty. Wallace has a long pass (over 40 yards) in each of the Steelers' six games. That is impressive. McCourty is dead last in receptions allowed to the receiver that he is matched up with. I see a huge game coming here for Mike Wallace.
Start
Patriots' Tight Ends - The stats against tight ends might look good at a glance for the Steelers, but don't be fooled, these backers of the Steelers have had a tough time covering receiving tight ends this year. Against Owen Daniels and Joel Dreessen, both tight ends who tend to catch the ball quite often, they let up 91 yards and a touchdown. Then in week one, against the likes of Ed Dickson and the Ravens tight ends, they gave up 15 fantasy points and over 100 yards! Both Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski are great options this week, because you know who is throwing them the ball, and that guy throwing them the ball happens to love to throw to tight ends.
Sit
Deion Branch and the rest of the Patriots' Wide Receivers - Branch has been a pretty dependable target for Brady this year, and a good wide receiver fantasy wise too. But, the Steelers have had a fierce pass defense this year, specifically against wide receivers. They allow just 12.1 to opposing wide receivers, and while I think Welker will be able to find seams in the defense in his slot position, the outside wide receivers aren't going to be able to do that. Keep Branch and Co. on your bench.
Christian's Pick: Steelers 27, Patriots 20
Taylor's Pick: Patriots 31, Steelers 28
4:15 PM EST - CBS
Line: San Francisco by 8.5
Over/Under: 52.5
Start
Greg Little - Mohamed Massquoi out again? Josh Cribbs starting opposite Greg Little? No Peyton Hillis? This is the perfect opportunity for Little to have the best game of his short career and maybe even get his first career touchdown against a team that has allowed just six thus far.
Vernon Davis - I know he dropped you a big goose egg last week, so bear with me here. The Browns allow 9.2 points to opposing tight ends with is fourth worst in the league. And even though Davis had only eight yards last week, the three games before that were all double digits. Go ahead and find a spot for this guy in your lineup, which I assume you already did.
Sit
Alex Smith - I don't know how this stat is true, but the Browns have allowed the third least fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks with just nine per game, and I'm not sure if Smith will even be able to find double digits in this game, none the less put up a solid fantasy day. Keep Smith on your bench, unless you are extremely desperate.
Montario Hardesty - This guy can't catch a break. First, he gets the starting job from a Peyton Hillis injury and fetches 33 carries and then does very little with it (only 95 yards). Then, Hillis decides to sit out again and Hardesty has to then take on the 49ers defense who has been stout against the run so far. If you didn't already know, the 49ers allow only eight fantasy points to opposing running backs, two and a half points less than any other team in the league. Temper your expectations for Hardesty this week.
Christian's Pick: 49ers 17, Browns 10
Taylor's Pick: 49ers 17, Browns 6
4:15 PM EST - CBS
Line: Bengals by 2
Over/Under: 37.5
Start
AJ Green and Andy Dalton - With all of the injuries to the Seahawks' secondary (Atari Bigby and Kam Chancellor) that was already very weak, AJ Green and Andy Dalton could have the time of their lives on Sunday. The Seahawks allow 21 points to opposing wide receivers which is middle of the pack, but against quarterbacks they allow 13.7 which is also middle of the pack. So why do I like this matchup so much? Well, Green has been in double digits for every game except for one now, and Dalton has put up 14 points or more in four of the last five games. I like both of these guys this weak although they are traveling to the west coast.
Sit
Bernard Scott - This kid showed so much promise in 2009 and 2010, but it has been down hill from there. In 2010 he averaged 4.9 yards per carry, and in 2011 he has averaged only 2.8; a major drop-off. Against the Seahawks who league the league in yards per rush (3.2), I wouldn't want to be starting Scott. Beside the point that he has a tough matchup, he might even be in a three way split with Peerman and Leonard.
Christian's Pick: Bengals 14, Seahawks 10
Taylor's Pick: Bengals 24, Seahawks 10
8:27 PM EST - NBC
Line: Eagles by 3
Over/Under: 48.5
Things I'm Watching For
1. Can the Cowboys defense stop a dynamic running back like Lesean McCoy? It's going to take good fundamental tackling to take him down, and the defensive end is going to have to contain the edges. The same goes for Michael Vick. If the Cowboys can contain the edge then they can easily win this football game, but defensive end has been very sloppy at times for the Cowboys.
2. Can the Eagles linebackers contain DeMarco Murray? The run defense was very good against the Redskins (it could of also been the 'Skins offensive line collapse, but either way, they stopped the Redskins' attack), but that might be a different story against Murray who emerged last week. It wil be interesting to see if Murray can somewhat duplicate what he did last week against a defense of the Eagles that is better than the Rams, most of the time.
3. The Cowboys' offensive line looked real good in run blocking last week for the first time since, longer than I can remember. If they can limit penalties and contain the Eagles' front seven then the Cowboys and DeMarco Murray should be good to go.
Start
DeMarco Murray - I do think that he will completely dominate the Eagles if Jason Garrett decides to give him the ball, and much of the play calling is going to lean on how the first quarter goes. If Murray looks good in the first quarter then he is going to get a lot of carries throughout, but if he looks slow or he can't find the hole then he is going to shut Murray down and resort to passing, as usual. I am worried that Phillip Tanner, backup running back, might steal Murray's goal line carries. We will see how that plays out, but I don't think we are going to see Murray is goal line or short yardage packages very often.
Desean Jackson - Dallas has no one who can contain Desean Jackson, to be completely honest. In five games against the Cowboys, "DJacc" averages 88 yards, but only has one touchdown (last time he had 210 receiving yards, but no touchdown). I see a huge game coming for Desean Jackson.
 |
| How 'bout 'dem Cowboys? |
Sit
Miles Austin - I would assume that Austin is going to see Nnamdi until Dez Bryant starts to emerge. I'm not saying sit Austin, but I don't expect too much from him in this game. Romo hasn't looked great under pressure this year, and I would put money that he is knocked down more than ten times in this game. Austin is a wide receiver No.2 at best this week.
Jeremy Maclin - This is almost completely a gut call. In four games against the Cowboys he only has 102 yards and has never scored a touchdown. Newman and Scandrick will likely see Maclin the most, while Jenkins (the Cowboys most athletic corner) takes on Desean Jackson. Something tells me that Maclin will have less than five fantasy points, but a lot of that is just my gut.
Christian's Pick: Cowboys 30, Eagles 24
Taylor's Pick: Eagles 30, Cowboys 27
Monday 8:37 PM EST - ESPN
Line: Chargers by 3.5
Over/Under: 44.5
Things I'm Watching For
1. Can the Chargers run defense step up against Jackie Battle and Thomas Jones? They have looked like one of the worst rush defenses in their last three games by allowing 114.7 yards per game (on average). I think Jackie Battle could go for over 100 yards alone in this one because the Chiefs are going to have to establish the run to win this game.
2. When is Vincent Jackson going to be what others though he was at the beginning of the season? I mean, I barely liked him as a top ten wide receiver at the beginning of the year (tooting my own horn here), and I might be right. He only has one game with over five receptions and only three touchdowns on the year (two in one game). I want to see VJax have a big game against Brandon Flowers in this game.
Start
Ryan Matthews - With Mike Tolbert highly doubtful to play on Monday, Matthews could see up to 30 touches combined in the run and pass game. Perfect formula for a huge game for Matthews.
Jackie Battle - Like I said earlier, the Chargers haven't been able to stop the run as of late, and Jackie Battle has been getting 15-20 touches. So, as long as he keeps getting the touches then I am going to keep him in my lineup.
Sit
Matt Cassel - The Chargers have a rather good pass defense. They have allowed just 13 points to opposing quarterbacks this year. I have started to like Caseel more and he has been improving (and so has his protection), but against a Chargers defense that has been playing very well, I'm not going to sit him
Vincent Jackson - See Things I'm Watching for, number two. Numbers never lie, and the numbers that Vincent Jackson are putting right now are atrocious. Wide receiver two at best.
Christian's Pick: Chiefs 27, Chargers 23
Taylor's Pick: Chiefs 20, Chargers 17
