Week 7 Game Analysis

By: Christian Hardy


Week 7 is all but hours away, and you know what that means. That means bone-crushing, pad-busting, upset-filled Sunday of football. But that's not all: It also means that my week 7 game picks and start and sit are here! Last week was another bad week, in fact, it was my worst yet at a horrendous 7-6. There were a lot of odd football games last week, and that's how it has been the last couple of weeks: In other words, it was NFL football. Hopefully this week will be a lot better, but the way it has gone so far, I'm not so sure anymore. With all of that said, why won't we get started?


Seattle Seahawks @ Cleveland Browns
1:00 PM EST - FOX
Line: Browns by 3
Over/Under: 41

Things That I'm Watching

• Will the Seahawks run defense hold up (first in the league in yards allowed per carry)? Hillis is still hampering a hamstring and Hardesty has not ran well, so it should be an easy game for this very under rated run defense.
• Who is going to be Charlie Whitehurst's favorite target? Baldwin has been a good option for Tavaris Jackson so far this year, but Sidney Rice is certainly more talented, so it will be interesting to see who Whitehurst targets the most against the vulnerable defense of the Browns.

Start

Source

1. Marshawyn Lynch - The Browns are ranked 28th against opposing running backs this season and the Seahawks are starting their backup quarterback,. Charlie Whitehurst, this week. Sounds like perfect formula for a big game from Lynch
2. Colt McCoy - The Seahawks' pass defense is 23rd in yards allowed per game this season, and McCoy has been putting up some very consistent fantasy numbers (never dropping below 13 fantasy points). He hasn't put up any stellar performances, but with the consistent numbers he is putting up, and a good matchup, he could be on his way to his first 20 point game this season.

Sit

1. Sidney Rice - Have you ever noticed that with the letters of Charlie Whitehurst's name, you can spell "The Hurt" (Charlie Whitehurst). Well, that's just what Whitehurst is to Rice. Rice came out hot and he was already slowing down, and that was with Tavaris Jackson. Now that Whitehurst is under center, it could become even uglier for Rice.
2. Peyton Hillis - This guy has slowed down ever since the end of last season, and now, with the hamstring injury, the bad could become worse for Peyton Hillis. Not only is he hampering a hamstring, but as I mentioned earlier, in terms on yards allowed per carry, the Seahawks are first in the NFL. I'm concerned with the injury and the matchup.

Pick: Browns 20, Seahawks 16




Atlanta Falcons @ Detroit Lions
1:00 PM EST - FOX
Line: Lions by 3.5
Over/Under: 47.5

Things That I'm Watching

• Is Roddy White ever going to step up? He has shown small flashes of excellence this year, but he has done nothing like he did last year. Against the Lions' defense, who is one of the top in the NFL, I wouldn't expect much from Roddy this weekend, even with Julio Jones out.
• Who is going to get the most carries for the Lions and who is going to do the most with what they get? To be honest, I think Morris gets the most carries, but I think Wlliams will be more productive with the carries he gets. I might be the only one who thinks this.

Start

Source

1. Calvin Johnson - Johnson is probably the consensus number one fantasy wide receiver world wide this week, but hey, that doesn't mean I can't say he is going to have a great game. Brent Grimes, the Falcons top corner, hasn't been able to cover anyone so far this year and no one has been able to cover Megatron. Sounds like he is going to go off in this one to me.
2. Matthew Stafford - You probably got Stafford  late, in your draft, but boy, that pick might have been one of the top ones in your fantasy draft so far. With a good matchup against Atlanta, and with Jahvid Best sitting this game out, I expect no less than 20 points from Stafford this week.

Sit

1. Matt Ryan - Ryan has had such a mediocre season so far tha tI wouldn't be considering him to be my starter against any defense, not to mention that he is playing one of the best against the pass this week. If you have a better option then sit Ryan.
2. Lions Running Backs - Stay away from them. No one knows who is going to get the majority of the carries and the Falcons run defense isn't all that bad. On top of that, I think that the Lions are going to want tot throw a lot in this game.

Pick: Lions 24, Falcons 20




Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans
1:00 PM EST - CBS
Line: Titans by 3
Over/Under: 44


Things That I'm Watching

• Is Chris Johnson going to play like the CJ2K or is he going to play like the Chris Johnson who has loads of cash sitting in the bank and doesn't just doesn't care about football? The Texans' rush defense isn't awesome, but they way that Chris Johnson has been running it won't have to be. I want to see Chris Johnson turn this season around, and he needs to do it before the halfway point of this season.
• Can Mat Schaub put up another stellar game without Andre Johnson? He did it in week seven when everyone doubted him, but I don't think that he will again. I expect a 200 yard, one to two touchdown game here.

Source

Start

1. Matt Hasselbeck - Hasselbeck's numbers have been solid hell this year. He has never dropped below 12 points, and the one time he dropped below 16 was against the Steelers, the best fantasy pass defense in the business. You could do worse than Hasselbeck this week against the 18th ranked pass defense in the league.
2. Chris Johnson - Ok, I don't necessarily love Chris Johnson this week, but he has an average matchup (17th rush defense in the league). So if Johnson can get the carries then he should be a great option for this week.

Sit

1. Arian Foster - Obviously you are not going to literally sit this guy, but like I usually say, you should limit your expectations. Tennessee has the 7th best rush defense in the league, and I'm not sure what Foster is going to be able to do against them. Don't sit him, but I just don't expect a huge game from Foster this week.
2. Nate Washington - I didn't like Anquan Boldin going up against John Joseph last week, and I don't like the matchup this week. Even though Boldin did h make some plays, it was when the Texans were in their zone coverage. Washington is a desperate flex play for me this week.

Pick: Titans 24, Texans 23




Denver Broncos @ Miami Dolphins
1:00 PM EST - CBS
Line: Even
Over/Under: 41.5


Things That I'm Watching

• Two words: Tebow Time. Is he going to be able to throw the ball? And is he going to lead this team to victory? Well if he is, this would be the game to do it.
• How is Knowshon Moreno going to be used? He didn't get a single carry last game for the first time in his career and his path from here is really unknown. The Dolphins' front is banged up, so when or it Moreno gets carries, he could do something with them.

Start

Source

1. Tim Tebow - See my Bank/Tank for this one. Broncos' fans love him, Gator fans love him, Christians love him, Floridians love him..I mean, what is there not to love.
2. Eric Decker - With Brandon Lloyd being shipped to the Rams this is a risk, but it is a risk that I am definitely willing to take.

 Sit

1. Willis McGahee - I still think he is a low-end number two, but there are going to be plays designed for Tebow to run at the goal line. Beside that point. I think that Moreno might start to get more involved.
2. Brandon Marshall -  I know that if he can beat Revis then he can beat anyone. But I'm still unsure of Matt Moore and frankly, I still think that Champ Bailey is one of the best corners in the league. Once again, you are still going to be playing this guy, just limit the expectations a little bit.

Pick: Broncos 27, Dolphins 16




San Diego Chargers @ New York Jets

1:00 PM EST - CBS
Line: Jets by 1
Over/Under: 43.5

Things That I'm Watching

• The main thing I want to see in this game is how the Jets' run defense is going to respond to the two headed beast that the Charger have in Matthews and Tolbert. The Jets have looked bad in the run game thus far, and I'm looking for them to possibly turn it around.
• Are the Chargers going to give the ball to LT more since he is playing his former team? We know that there are hard feelings despite Tomlinson saying there is not. This will definitely be something that I am watching.

Start

Matthews is good, real good.

1. Malcom  Floyd - Antonio Cromartie has looked awful this year, that is for certain and even though Floyd has been injured, he has still put up some nice numbers. Last game he had 100 yards and a touchdown (thanks to a 42 yard touchdown pass from Philip Rivers). Floyd is a nice flex for week 7, but a risky one at that.
2. Ryan Matthews - While Tolbert might be vulturing some of Matthews' touchdowns, Matthews is still getting plenty of touches. The Jets haven't been able to stop the run, and I doubt that they can turn it around in this game. Matthews is an every week start at this point. 

 Sit

1. Plaxico Burress - Plax has been a huge disappointment so far this year. His best game came against the very banged up secondary of the Dallas Cowboys. He hasn't gone over 50 yards in two weeks, and honestly, he is in dumpsville for sure. 
2. Philip Rivers - I know it sounds crazy, but I think I might literally sit Philip rivers this week. He hasn't been putting up huge numbers (best game at 18 points) and the Jets let a whole 6.4 points to opposing quarterbacks. That's not something like to see. If you have someone that you know will get you 10+ points, then stick him in your lineup.

Pick: Chargers 20, Jets 17

Chicago Bears @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (In London)
1:00 PM EST - FOX
Line: Chicago by 1.5
Over/Under: 43.5


Things That I'm Watching

• I'm not sure we'll ever know this, but who is Cutler's top receiver!? Every game he spreads the ball and there is not real "number one" target. Will one emerge this season, or will there never be fantasy value on the Bears.
• Same goes for the Buccaneers. What I said above is, sadly, about the same for Josh Freeman and the Buccaneers this season. Williams has been almost nonexistent and Parker is emerging, but could we see a change against the weak pass defense of the Bears?

Start

Source

1. Earnest Graham - He doesn't have a great matchup (14th against opposing running backs), but the running backs are averaging 15 points against them per game. When a running back like Graham is getting 90% of the workload, it is hard to sit him. Find a spot for Graham this week.
2. Jay Cutler - He has put up very solid numbers in all but one week (in a fluke game against Carolina). The Bucs allow an average of 15 points to opposing quarterbacks. The way Cutler has been playing and the way that the Buccaneers have been playing defense, well, that's a potion for success.

 Sit

1. Mike Williams - This is becoming an every week sit for just about everybody. He has done nothing this year, and until he shows his owners something, he is going to keep riding the bench or maybe even sit on free agents.
2. Johnny Knox - Yep, I'm sitting both #1 wide receivers on these two teams. He has been terrible, and Cutler just isn't throwing to him this year. I expected big things, but when a player hasn't scored eight points this year then it is hard to stick him in your lineup.

Pick: Buccaneers 27, Bears 17

Washington Redskins @ Carolina Panthers

1:00 PM EST - FOX
Line: Panthers by 2.5
Over/Under: 43


Things That I'm Watching

• Can Cam Newton be Cam Newton like, or is he just going to look like a typical rookie, like he has in the past few weeks? Washington has a fair defense, so if Cam Newton can put up huge numbers it would impress me.
• Well, at the beginning of the year (preseason), I thought Beck was definitively better than Grossman. And you know what else? Mike Shanahan didn't think that was the case. Now, Beck gets his chance, and he wouldn't of gotten a better matchup this week than the Panthers of Carolina. I think Beck could (I am treading lightly when I say this) throw for around 250 yards a couple touchdowns. But, I am really watching to see how Beck comes out and fights for his job.

Start

Source

1. John Beck - See Things That I'm Watching, bullet two. Good matchup, and is going to be fighting for his job.
2. Ryan Torain - Going up against the worst fantasy run defense? That's a plus. Try to find a place in your lineup for this guy, because if you don't then I guarantee that you will regret it.

 Sit

1. Cam Newton - Newton has not been playing like he started. He seems flustered in the pocket and he is making terrible decisions. The Redskins defense has actually been surprisingly good this year, and Newton has played surprisingly bad these last two weeks. I would try and find a replacement for Newton this week.
2. Panthers Running Backs - You never know which one is going to score. You know one of them will find their way to the promise land, but which one will it be!? Neither one is very appealing, but if I picked the much more consistent one in Johnathan Stewart. If they would just give the ball to one of these two more often then either one of these two could be top 15 running backs, very easily.

Pick: Panthers 24, Redskins 21

Kansas City Chiefs @ Oakland Raiders

4:05 PM EST - CBS
Line: Raiders by 4
Over/Under: 41


Things That I'm Watching

• Can Jackie Battle take the "lead back" role in KC and run with it? I want to see this kid run, and I really want to see him run well. This is by far the top thing I am watching in this game, because I have heard a lot about the kid and I barely saw him at all against the Colts.
• Is Carson Palmer or Kyle Boller (whoever is at quarterback) going to be looking for Darrius Heyward-Bey who just recently took the "bust" tag off of his name? Or will DHB fall back down to scum? Both of the guys I am watching for are both guys that I am cheering on because I like both of them a lot.

Start

Source

1. Jackie Battle - From what I heard, and the little that I saw against the Colts: This kid can run, and he is awfully good at it too. For more on Battle, check out my Bank/Tank.
2. Matt Cassel - He made my top ten this week for a reason. The Raiders' pass defense has looked terrible without Nnami Asomugha. In fact, they have allowed the third most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks in twenty-eleven. Stick Cassel in your lineup unless you have a stud on your team.

Sit

1. Oakland Wide Receivers - With the arrival of a new quarterback, none of the wide receivers are a go for me this week. Sorry Darrius Heyward-Bey!
2. Who else is there? Bowe has been on his game, the tight ends are obvious sits, and you aren't sitting Darren McFadden! Nothing to see here.

Pick: Chiefs 23, Raiders 13

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Arizona Cardinals

4:05 PM EST - CBS
Line: Steelers by 3.5
Over/Under: 43.5


Things That I'm Watching

• Can Rashard Mendenhall build off of what he did last week (23 carries for 146 and a touchdown)? Or is he going to return to the Mendenhall of old? He has a good matchup here (Cardinals are twentieth against opposing running backs allowing16.8 points per game), so I expect a nice game.
• Can the Steelers' run defense step up despite some of their major injuries? Wells has run very well this year, so this should be a very good matchup. Wells, a power back, matches up very well with a smash mouth (or used to be smash mouth) run defense.

Start

Source

1. Rob Housler - This is a real deep tight end play, but with Todd Heap out there is a good chance that Housler could be a big part of the Cardinals' game plan.
2. Beanie Wells - If I was running against the Steelers, they couldn't stop me right now. That's how bad they are right now. With all of the injuries, every running back is a good play.

Sit

1. Larry Fitzgerald - While the Steelers are struggling to stop the run, their corners have been playing top notch so far, which is not a commodity when it comes to Steelers football. They also have the top pass defense in football right now, and Kevin Kolb has not been playing good football. I think you know what I am getting to.
2. Kevin Kolb - See Fitzgerald, Larry right above.

Pick: Steelers 30, Cardinals 17




St.Louis Rams @ Dallas Cowboys

4:15 PM EST - FOX
Line: Cowboys by 14
Over/Under: 43


Things That I'm Watching

• How is the offensive line going to block for DeMarco Murray and Tashard Choice in this one? So far this season it has not been good, and I don't see that changing. But, there are always holes in the offensive line, so if Murray has better vision than Jones then he will look really good.
• How productive is Brandon Lloyd going to be in his first game as a Ram? Feeley is the quarterback, so this performance might not close the book on this season, but we will get an idea of how he is going to be used in this offense.

Cowboys BABY!

Start

1. All of your Cowboys - The Rams' defense is just all around terrible, and I expect a huge game from every Cowboy in this one. I even think that Tashard Choice might have a decent game here.

Sit

1. All of your Rams - The Cowboys have a stellar run defense (second in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks), so Steven Jackson is out of the question for me. Then you have AJ Feeley under center, and well, I feel the same as everyone else about having him under center. The only Ram that I think will have a serviceable game is Lance Kendricks because bad/inexperienced quarterbacks tend to lean on their safer options, and that safe option is usually the tight end.

Pick: Cowboys 34, Rams 13




Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings
4:15 PM EST - FOX
Line: Packers by 9.5
Over/Under: 47

Things That I'm Watching

• Christian Ponder impressed me in his rookie debut, but can he keep composure against the Packers? It is the Packers, but I still expect a nice game from Ponder here to be honest. I would guess that I would a better performance McNabb has had so far this season.
• James Starks or Ryan Grant? That is the question that might never be answered.

Start

Source

1. Percy Harvin - Ponder seemed to like him a lot in the time that he had in the game against the Bears. Not only do I expect that to continue this week, but the Vikings are playing the eighth worst fantasy defense in terms of opposing wide receivers. Harvin is definitely worth a flex this week.
2. Aaron Rodgers - I think this is indisputable, believe it or not: Aaron Rodgers is the best quarterback in the NFL right now. Who doesn't like this guy? Honestly, have you ever hear someone say that they hate Aaron Rodgers? Didn't think so.

Sit

1. Adrian Peterson - Not only are the Vikings going to be throwing a lot in this game, but the Packers have a very good run defense. They have only allowed 13 points to opposing running backs per game.. It's pretty apparent that you aren't going to sit the best running back in the NFL, but I don't think he goes for over 12 points.
2. Packers Running Backs - Neither of these guys are getting enough work to do anything for your fantasy team. The Vikings have to fourth best fantasy run defense to make it even worse. I think you can find a better running back than eith of these guys.

Pick: Packers 41, Vikings 17 (that's right, forty-one points)

Indianapolis Colts @ New Orleans Saints
8:27 PM EST - NBC
Line: Saints by 13.5
Over/Under: 49


Things That I'm Watching

• Will the Saints' defense live up to their 16 touchdowns allowed to opponents this season? Well, with Curtis Painter in the house (if you know what I mean) this could shape up for a nice matchup for the Saints. But Painter loves to spread the ball, so it will be interesting to see how this plays out on Sunday Night
• Rookie Mark Ingram will finally be in the spotlight on Sunday Night Football against one of the worst defenses in the NFL, and more importantly, he is on my fantasy team. So, hopefully he can rack up the points against in a great matchup.

Start

Source

1. Donald Brown - OK, I don't love him, but he is a better option than Delone Carter or Joesph Addai (who is rumored to play on Sunday). Carter has done nothing with the chances he has gotten in the past two weeks, and Addai is coming off of a hamstring injury. If I took my pick, it would be Brown.
2. Mark Ingram - The Colts' rush defense is really bad, and Ingram has become a bigger part of this offense in the last couple of weeks. I don't expect a huge game, but I expect the best of his young career on Sunday Night Football.

Sit

1. Reggie Wayne - Wayne has become more of a possession receiver in this offense instead of the guy who used to score touchdowns almost every week. With Peyton Manning out. Wayne is a guy who should just rot on your bench unless you are desperate.
2. Saints' Wide Receivers after Marques Colston - After Jimmy Graham and Marques Colston, there really isn't much to go around in terms of catches for the Saints' wide receivers. There certainly is not any fantasy value to be had.

Pick: Saints 33, Colts 20




Baltimore Ravens @ Jacksonville Jaguars

8:37 PM EST - ESPN
Line: Ravens by 9
Over/Under: 40


Things That I'm Watching

• Are the Ravens going to give up any ground to their opponents in terms of defense? Their defense has been stellar so far this year, and I'm sure they aren't to worried about Blaine Gabbert rupturing that trend. They should be a great fantasy play this week.
• I just want to watch Ray Rice, up close and personal. He is one of the players that I have watched the most this season because he is just so talented in every aspect of the game, but watching him on Monday Night is going to be even better.

Start

1. Anquan Boldin - If Johnathan Joseph can't shut this guy down, then I don't know who will except for maybe  atop corner in the game. Flacco likes to throw to him, and Flacco is throwing often. With no corner that is a good match for Boldin, I can see him having right around 100 yards and a touchdown.



Source

2. Ray Rice - Not only do I like the Ravens in this game, but, like I mentioned, I also love Ray Rice.The Jaguars defense have a pretty good front seven, but I expect Rice to get to the outside and also receive the ball quite a bit in this game.

Sit

1. Maurice Jones-Drew - I still think you have to stick him in your lineup, because he is going to get you some points, but the Ravens defense is staunch against the run. They have allowed just one touchdown on the ground and average just 10 points per game to opposing running backs. Like I said, I think you still need to try to find a spot for Mo-Jo but I wouldn't expect more than around 10-12 points from him.
2. Sit Your Jaguars - Well, now that I have talked about MJD, I just wanted to say that you shouldn't be playing any other Jaguars. Gabbert isn't a good option against this defense of the Ravens, Marcedes Lewis has been nonexistant, and with the addition of Mike Smis-Walker, their wide receiving corps is mind-boggling. At this point, none on these guys should be in your lineup.

Pick: Ravens 24, Jaguars 13


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Thanks for reading. Gabe will be back with another pickup article on Tuesday, and I will also be posting my "Let Them Preach" on Tuesday. I did not post a Let Them Preach article after week 6 because I got caught up in family stuff and did not find the time to. If you have any lineup questions before the games start on Sunday, then feel free to hit me up on Twitter. Also, don't forget to check out the rankings and also the Injury Report for all of the most important and up the minute news on Sunday. Otherwise, until Tuesday, I am out!