Week 4 Game Picks

By: Christian Hardy

What can compare to the first three weeks of the NFL season? Maybe week four can? No way, but it is still NFL football, and it doesn’t get much better than that. Last week my picks were terrible; I was 10-6. I know I will do better this week, but there are a lot of close games that are going to be tough to pick. I wanted to point out that for each game I will do two things that I am going to be watching, as well as two starts and two sits instead of giving you every player from every game. Oh, and one last thing; my pick will be at the end of each game. So with all of the housekeeping taken care of…let’s take a look at my picks.

Carolina Panthers vs Chicago Bears

1:00 PM EST – FOX

Line: Bears by 6.5

Over/Under: 42.5

Things I’m Looking For: I really want to see what Cam Newton can do against a top-notch defense like the Bears have. For the Bears? I am seeing if they can get Matt Forte more involved this week, and if Jay Cutler will continue to make Johnny Knox a productive wide receiver.

Start: Johnathan Stewart – He is the top back for the Panthers right now

Greg Olsen – Right now the Bears can’t stop the TEs and Olsen is getting targeted by Cam Newton.

Sit: DeAngelo Williams – With the start of Stewart and thw way Williams has been used, it’s looking like a lost season for DWill.

Cam Newton – I can see this blowing up in my face, but he didn’t do well last week (I know it was a monsoon, but still) and the Bears have a much better defense than the Jaguars.

Pick: Bears 20, Panthers 17

Buffalo Bills vs Cincinnati Bengals

1:00 PM EST – CBS

Line: Bills by 3

Over/Under: 43.5

Things I’m Looking For: Can the Bills offense stay this potent? I mean, they have dominated three defenses now, and it doesn’t look like anyone can stop them. Surely the Bengals can’t. I also want to see if the two rookies (Andy Dalton and AJ Green) can connect. If they are going to, this will be the game to do it in.

Start: David Nelson – The guy continues to be a huge part of this offense

AJ Green – I am pretty confident in this pick. I think the Bengals are going to have to try to keep up, and what better playmaker than AJ Green to utilize. I mean, just watch the video and you know you gotta start him.

Sit: Donald Jones – I know that a lot of people are jumping on this guy, but I wouldn’t be too sure. Fitzpatrick is throwing the ball to everyone, and I’m not sure Jones is going to continue to be a piece of this puzzle.

Cedric Benson – He isn’t running well in the last couple games, and he isn’t even finding the endzone. I don’t expect him to get a ton of touches this week since they are going to be playing catch up like I said earlier.

Pick: Bills 38, Bengals 20

Detroit Lions vs Dallas Cowboys

1:00 PM EST – FOX

Line: Cowboys by 2.5

Over/Under: 46

Things I’m Looking For: Will the Cowboys finally get the running game going? If Dez isn’t able to go in this game, you have to think that they are going to have to put the ball on the ground. Can the Cowboys defense prove that they are for real, like they were in 2009? They are 2^nd in the league in rush defense and they have shut down some top running backs. I say yes they can, but I doubt the pass defense. Rob Ryan has done some great things with this defense though, that is for sure.

Start: Tony Romo – He was in my Bank picks. Last week was the first time in two years that he did not throw a TD pass, and he didn’t have to in that game. Look, keep your faith in Romo. He will playoff.

Nate Burleson – The Cowboys haven’t fared well against supporting casts in team’s offenses.: Plaxico had his way in week one, in week two, well, the Cowboys were playing the 49ers, and in week three Gaffney had 60 yards. All of those teams don’t have great passing offenses, but the Lions and Matt Stafford can move the ball plenty more than Mark Sanchez, Alex Smith, or Rex Grossman.

Sit: Dez Bryant – Last week the quad really bothered him and he was on the sideline for much of the game. This week, Dez didn’t practice and it really scares me.

Jahvid Best – The Cowboys have been shutting down the run, and I expect this to be a shootout. Flex at best.

Pick: Cowboys 26, Lions 24

New Orleans Saints vs Jacksonville Jaguars

1:00 PM EST – FOX

Line: Saints by 7

Over/Under: 45

Things I’m Looking For: The Saints running game is something everyone should keep an eye on. Is Sproles going to continue to only catch passes with a couple carries a game? Is Ingram going to gain more and more carries every week? For the Jaguars, is Mike Thomas going to continue to connect with Blaine Gabbert

Start: Darren Sproles – He was a bank for me this week. He has continued to ba playmaker for this team, and he has a good matchup this week

Mike Thomas – He is getting a ton or targets (42% of all passes) and Blaine Gabbert showed me he is at least going to be utilized in the Jaguars offense.

Sit: Pierre Thomas – Probably obvious call here, but he isn’t getting the work anymore.

Marques Colston – He might play, but I think he will mainly just be drawing coverage off of Brees’ other weapons.

Pick: Saints 30, Jaguars 13

San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles

1:00 PM  EST – FOX

Line: Eagles by 9.5

Over/Under: 43.5

Things I’m Looking For: Frank Gore’s ankle. Is Kendall Hunter going to get the workload? And if he does, what is he going to do with it? Both are things that I will be watching. Also, can Lesean McCoy run against a run-stopping defense? As a bonus, can Michael Vick last an entire game? McCoy has run very well, but he hasn’t played a great, healthy defense yet.

Start: Vernon Davis – The Eagles can’t stop tight ends.

Desean Jackson – 49ers have given up big plays, and with the injured hamstring of Jeremy Maclin, we could see Vick targeting his main man even more in this game

Sit: Frank Gore – Whether he will get the work fantasy owners want, no one knows yet. But, either way, an injury could knock him out of the game with just one tackle, and it will definitely slow him down.

Michael Crabtree – I don’t think Crabtree is going to do nothing this week, but against Asomugha there isn’t much you can do.

Pick: Eagles 24, 49ers 20

Washington Redskins @ St.Louis Rams

1:00 PM EST – FOX

Line: Redskins by 2.5

Over/Under: 43.5

What I’m Looking For: Is Steven Jackson ready for his return? And how much of a split is is between Fred Davis and Chris Cooley?

Start: Tim Hightower – The Rams are last in the league in rushing defense.

Brandon Gibson – I think he is the top guy for the Rams

Sit: Danario Alexander – Some people are jumping on this kid’s bandwagon, I am not one of those people

Fred Davis – Like I said, I am going to wait and see what kind of timeshare Davis and Cooley are going to have.

Pick: Redskins 27, Rams 17

Tennessee Titans @ Cleveland Browns

1:00 PM EST – CBS

Line:  Even

Over/Under: 38.5

What I’m Looking For: Can Chris Johnson turn it around? Browns don’t have a great defense, and with Kenny Britt out, the Titans might be left to rely on CJ2K. For the Browns, I’m watching to see how much the coaching staff is going to regulate Peyton Hillis’ workload.

Start: Jared Cook – I didn’t rank him like a “start”, but this could be Hasselbeck’s new favorite target on that offense.

Peyton Hillis – The sickness shouldn’t be a problem.

Sit: Browns Wide Receivers – No one on the Browns is getting enough targets and receptions to be starting on your fantasy team

Nate Washington – While I do like him, I don’t know how he will fare against Joe Haden. He could be huge, or he could do very little.

Pick:  Titans 20, Browns 16

Minnesota Vikings @ Kansas City

1:00 PM EST – FOX

Line: Vikings by 3

Over/Under: 39.5

Breaking: Vikings still can't win.

What I’m Looking For: I’ll be watching to see it Matt Cassel and Dwayne Bowe can continue to connect, but more importantly I am going to be waiting for that 2^nd half meltdown by the Vikings. If the Vikings give Peterson the ball more than 25 times they will win this game. Period.

Start: Percy Harvin – With Brandon Flowers’ ankle injury, I could see Harvin having a huge game. He is a playmaker, and the Chiefs haven’t been able to stop them so far.

Dwayne Bowe – One of my Banks. Him and Cassel have had a ton of production lately. I expect that to continue all though he is up against Antoine Winfield.

Sit: Chiefs running backs – Neither is getting enough work to start.

Both Quarterbacks – They have looked terrible in the three games they have played, and their records reflect it.

Pick: Chiefs 24, Vikings 20

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Houston Texams

1:00 PM EST – CBS

Line: Texans by 3.5

Over/Under: 45

What I’m Looking For: How much work is Foster going to get, and what is he going to do with those carries? Also, is James Casey going to continue to get targets from Matt Schaub? I would guess that he is not. And can Rashard Mendenhall bounce back from last week?

Start: There are no secrets. Start your studs in this game.

Sit: Arian Foster – Battling a hamstring injury and playing a tough run defense…not something I like to see. Keep Foster on the bench for now.

The TEs in the game: I don’t like either TE, but I would rather play Owen Daniels than  Heath Miller (obviously)

Pick: Texans 20, Steelers 17 (OT)

Atlanta Falcons @ Seattle Seahawks

4:05 PM EST – FOX

Line: Atlanta by 4.5

Over/Under: 38.5

What I’m Looking For: Are the Falcons still elite? Obviously, one game can’t prove to such a claim, but if they can put a spanking on the Seahawks then they are where they should be in my eyes. I also want to see if Sidney Rice was a fluke last game, or if he really is going to be relevant for fantasy owners.

Start: Julio Jones – Last week, in Jones’ first game in a good matchup he went for over 100 yards. The Seahawks have no one who can cover the very talented Julio Jones.

Marshawyn Lynch – Ok, maybe not a start, but the Falcons run defense has looked bad. Just saying.

Sit: Both tight ends – I don’t have any faith in Tony Gonzalez anymore, and Zach Miller doesn’t look like he is going to be a factor.

Sidney Rice – I don’t see him doing much against Brent Grimes this week.

Pick: Falcons 27, Seahawks 13

New York Giants @ Arizona Cardinals

4:05 PM EST – FOX

Line: Giants by 1

Over/Under: 44.5

What I’m Looking For: Can Kevin Kolb escape the rush and expose the weak pass defense of the Giants? And is Beanie Wells healthy enough to run against a tough Giants defense?

Start: Ahmad Bradshaw – I think he will have a huge game against one of the worst run defenses in the league.

Eli Manning – Dominated the Eagles last week, no reason he can’t dominate the Cardinals the same way.

Sit: Beanie Wells – I think the injury is going to take playing time and carries away from him.

Brandon Jacobs - Ahmad Bradshaw is going to dominate this game.

Pick: Giants 30, Cardinals 23

Miami Dolphins @ San Diego Chargers

4:15 PM EST – CBS

Line: Chargers by 7

Over/Under: 44.5

What I’m Looking For: I want to see the Chargers get on top early and maintain that lead. They just don’t have that type of urgency in the first half, and they never have had that with Norv Turner.  Also, as a Hartline believer, I want to see if he can continue to put up good PPR league numbers

Start: Ryan Matthews – Despite injuries, I still love the matchup this week,

Philip Rivers – He is going to maul the Dolphins defense. It’s going to be bad.

Reggie Bush – With Daniel Thomas out, Bush could have a great game, and maybe one of last great games he has with Daniel Thomas looking like a complete stud.

Sit: Malcom Floyd- Rather he plays or not, he shouldn’t be in your lineup.

Davone Bess  - He has not done anything thus far.

Pick: Chargers 30, Dolphins 20

Denver Broncos @ Green Bay Packers

4:15 PM EST – CBS

Line: Packers by 12

Over/Under: 46.5

What I’m Looking For: Who is going to get the bulk of the carries for the Broncos? Also, how much is Starks going to get the ball, and what is he going to do with those carries? Both will be interesting, especially since I liked Moreno so much coming into the season, it will be interesting to see how they use him.

Start: James Starks – I believe in the kid. He is going to get around 8- percent of the carries, and he has shown me that he can do it in the first two weeks.

Brandon Lloyd – The Packers pass defense has looked awful this year. Orton and Lloyd will hook up for some big yardage.

Sit:  Knowshon Moreno and Willis McGahee – Who knows how the carries will be split for the Broncos

Jordy Nelson – There isn’t enough to go around…

Pick: Packers 30, Broncos 17

New England Patriots @ Oakland Raiders

4:15 PM EST – CBS

Line: Patriots by 5

Over/Under: 55

What I’m Looking For: I want to see if Denarius Moore continues to be a huge factor even with Darius Heyward-Bey back. I would assume he will be a big part. Campbell loves him. For the Patriots, I want to see if Stevan Ridley can keep getting more and more carries. Last week he actually became relevant, but I want to see more.

Start: Wes Welker – I just wanted to point out that he is going to have another huge game against this week pass defense.

Rob Gronkowski – You cannot sit him. Brady has become a tight end lover.

Jason Campbell – Believe it or not, if you are looking for a QB to pick up and start this week then this is your guy.

Sit: BenJarvus Green-Ellis – With not many carries to go around in the first place, it really hurts Lawfirm’s value now that he is giving up carries to Ridley and Woodhead.

Darius Heyward-Bey – Obviously sitting this guy. He started strong, but I want to see how him and Moore mix.

Pick: Patriots 38, Raiders 27

New York Jets @ Baltimore Ravens

8:20 EST – NBC

Line: Ravens by 3.5

Over/Under: 42

You can't stop me!

What I’m Looking For: I am very anxious to see the Torrey Smith versus Antonio Cromartie matchup. I’m also anxious to see how the offensive line of the Jets (especially Mangold with the hurt ankle) is going to hold up against the Ravens.

Start: Ray Rice – You can’t sit him. He is a physical beast in the rushing and the passing game.

Dustin Keller – I mean, who else is there in this game, really.

Sit: Santonio Holmes – Didn’t have a good week last week while Sanchez went off, and the Ravens have a decent pass defence

Anquan Boldin – Revis Island.

Pick: Ravens 20, Jets 16

Indianapolis Colts @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

8:30 PM EST – ESPN

Line: Buccaneers by 10

Over/Under: 42

You want ME to come in?

Things I’m Looking For: Who is Cutis Painter’s favorite wideout? Do the Buccaneers trust Blount to get a huge workload? If they do, he is going to have a huge game. I also want to see the Buccaneers offensive line against the two stellar defensive ends that the Colts have (Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney).

Start: Reggie Wayne – I think Painter will be looking for the most talented wide out of the field, and don’t feel confident that Aqib Talib will be able to stick with him.

LeGarrette Blount – Like I said, if he can get a large workload, he is going to have a huge game.

Sit: All Colts receivers besides Wayne – I don’t want to trust a guy like Austin Collie is I don’t know what I am getting.

Kellen Winslow – He has been playing terribly from a fantasy perspective lately.

Pick: Buccaneers 21, Colts 13

That'd be the full slate of games for this week. I'd like to thank you all for checking out the blog and for reading the article. If you have any "Who do I start..." questions then feel free to hunt me down on Twitter or just send me an email. On Sunday, don't forget to check out the Injury Report section or use my fantasy rankings to assist your WDIS needs if you are just too shy to ask. Go get a win this week and Gabe will be back on Monday with his pickups and I will be back on Tuesday with Let Them Preach.