Week 7 Game Analysis

By: Christian Hardy


Week 7 is all but hours away, and you know what that means. That means bone-crushing, pad-busting, upset-filled Sunday of football. But that's not all: It also means that my week 7 game picks and start and sit are here! Last week was another bad week, in fact, it was my worst yet at a horrendous 7-6. There were a lot of odd football games last week, and that's how it has been the last couple of weeks: In other words, it was NFL football. Hopefully this week will be a lot better, but the way it has gone so far, I'm not so sure anymore. With all of that said, why won't we get started?


Seattle Seahawks @ Cleveland Browns
1:00 PM EST - FOX
Line: Browns by 3
Over/Under: 41

Things That I'm Watching

• Will the Seahawks run defense hold up (first in the league in yards allowed per carry)? Hillis is still hampering a hamstring and Hardesty has not ran well, so it should be an easy game for this very under rated run defense.
• Who is going to be Charlie Whitehurst's favorite target? Baldwin has been a good option for Tavaris Jackson so far this year, but Sidney Rice is certainly more talented, so it will be interesting to see who Whitehurst targets the most against the vulnerable defense of the Browns.

Start

Source

1. Marshawyn Lynch - The Browns are ranked 28th against opposing running backs this season and the Seahawks are starting their backup quarterback,. Charlie Whitehurst, this week. Sounds like perfect formula for a big game from Lynch
2. Colt McCoy - The Seahawks' pass defense is 23rd in yards allowed per game this season, and McCoy has been putting up some very consistent fantasy numbers (never dropping below 13 fantasy points). He hasn't put up any stellar performances, but with the consistent numbers he is putting up, and a good matchup, he could be on his way to his first 20 point game this season.

Sit

1. Sidney Rice - Have you ever noticed that with the letters of Charlie Whitehurst's name, you can spell "The Hurt" (Charlie Whitehurst). Well, that's just what Whitehurst is to Rice. Rice came out hot and he was already slowing down, and that was with Tavaris Jackson. Now that Whitehurst is under center, it could become even uglier for Rice.
2. Peyton Hillis - This guy has slowed down ever since the end of last season, and now, with the hamstring injury, the bad could become worse for Peyton Hillis. Not only is he hampering a hamstring, but as I mentioned earlier, in terms on yards allowed per carry, the Seahawks are first in the NFL. I'm concerned with the injury and the matchup.

Pick: Browns 20, Seahawks 16




Atlanta Falcons @ Detroit Lions
1:00 PM EST - FOX
Line: Lions by 3.5
Over/Under: 47.5

Things That I'm Watching

• Is Roddy White ever going to step up? He has shown small flashes of excellence this year, but he has done nothing like he did last year. Against the Lions' defense, who is one of the top in the NFL, I wouldn't expect much from Roddy this weekend, even with Julio Jones out.
• Who is going to get the most carries for the Lions and who is going to do the most with what they get? To be honest, I think Morris gets the most carries, but I think Wlliams will be more productive with the carries he gets. I might be the only one who thinks this.

Start

Source

1. Calvin Johnson - Johnson is probably the consensus number one fantasy wide receiver world wide this week, but hey, that doesn't mean I can't say he is going to have a great game. Brent Grimes, the Falcons top corner, hasn't been able to cover anyone so far this year and no one has been able to cover Megatron. Sounds like he is going to go off in this one to me.
2. Matthew Stafford - You probably got Stafford  late, in your draft, but boy, that pick might have been one of the top ones in your fantasy draft so far. With a good matchup against Atlanta, and with Jahvid Best sitting this game out, I expect no less than 20 points from Stafford this week.

Sit

1. Matt Ryan - Ryan has had such a mediocre season so far tha tI wouldn't be considering him to be my starter against any defense, not to mention that he is playing one of the best against the pass this week. If you have a better option then sit Ryan.
2. Lions Running Backs - Stay away from them. No one knows who is going to get the majority of the carries and the Falcons run defense isn't all that bad. On top of that, I think that the Lions are going to want tot throw a lot in this game.

Pick: Lions 24, Falcons 20




Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans
1:00 PM EST - CBS
Line: Titans by 3
Over/Under: 44


Things That I'm Watching

• Is Chris Johnson going to play like the CJ2K or is he going to play like the Chris Johnson who has loads of cash sitting in the bank and doesn't just doesn't care about football? The Texans' rush defense isn't awesome, but they way that Chris Johnson has been running it won't have to be. I want to see Chris Johnson turn this season around, and he needs to do it before the halfway point of this season.
• Can Mat Schaub put up another stellar game without Andre Johnson? He did it in week seven when everyone doubted him, but I don't think that he will again. I expect a 200 yard, one to two touchdown game here.

Source

Start

1. Matt Hasselbeck - Hasselbeck's numbers have been solid hell this year. He has never dropped below 12 points, and the one time he dropped below 16 was against the Steelers, the best fantasy pass defense in the business. You could do worse than Hasselbeck this week against the 18th ranked pass defense in the league.
2. Chris Johnson - Ok, I don't necessarily love Chris Johnson this week, but he has an average matchup (17th rush defense in the league). So if Johnson can get the carries then he should be a great option for this week.

Sit

1. Arian Foster - Obviously you are not going to literally sit this guy, but like I usually say, you should limit your expectations. Tennessee has the 7th best rush defense in the league, and I'm not sure what Foster is going to be able to do against them. Don't sit him, but I just don't expect a huge game from Foster this week.
2. Nate Washington - I didn't like Anquan Boldin going up against John Joseph last week, and I don't like the matchup this week. Even though Boldin did h make some plays, it was when the Texans were in their zone coverage. Washington is a desperate flex play for me this week.

Pick: Titans 24, Texans 23




Denver Broncos @ Miami Dolphins
1:00 PM EST - CBS
Line: Even
Over/Under: 41.5


Things That I'm Watching

• Two words: Tebow Time. Is he going to be able to throw the ball? And is he going to lead this team to victory? Well if he is, this would be the game to do it.
• How is Knowshon Moreno going to be used? He didn't get a single carry last game for the first time in his career and his path from here is really unknown. The Dolphins' front is banged up, so when or it Moreno gets carries, he could do something with them.

Start

Source

1. Tim Tebow - See my Bank/Tank for this one. Broncos' fans love him, Gator fans love him, Christians love him, Floridians love him..I mean, what is there not to love.
2. Eric Decker - With Brandon Lloyd being shipped to the Rams this is a risk, but it is a risk that I am definitely willing to take.

 Sit

1. Willis McGahee - I still think he is a low-end number two, but there are going to be plays designed for Tebow to run at the goal line. Beside that point. I think that Moreno might start to get more involved.
2. Brandon Marshall -  I know that if he can beat Revis then he can beat anyone. But I'm still unsure of Matt Moore and frankly, I still think that Champ Bailey is one of the best corners in the league. Once again, you are still going to be playing this guy, just limit the expectations a little bit.

Pick: Broncos 27, Dolphins 16




San Diego Chargers @ New York Jets

1:00 PM EST - CBS
Line: Jets by 1
Over/Under: 43.5

Things That I'm Watching

• The main thing I want to see in this game is how the Jets' run defense is going to respond to the two headed beast that the Charger have in Matthews and Tolbert. The Jets have looked bad in the run game thus far, and I'm looking for them to possibly turn it around.
• Are the Chargers going to give the ball to LT more since he is playing his former team? We know that there are hard feelings despite Tomlinson saying there is not. This will definitely be something that I am watching.

Start

Matthews is good, real good.

1. Malcom  Floyd - Antonio Cromartie has looked awful this year, that is for certain and even though Floyd has been injured, he has still put up some nice numbers. Last game he had 100 yards and a touchdown (thanks to a 42 yard touchdown pass from Philip Rivers). Floyd is a nice flex for week 7, but a risky one at that.
2. Ryan Matthews - While Tolbert might be vulturing some of Matthews' touchdowns, Matthews is still getting plenty of touches. The Jets haven't been able to stop the run, and I doubt that they can turn it around in this game. Matthews is an every week start at this point. 

 Sit

1. Plaxico Burress - Plax has been a huge disappointment so far this year. His best game came against the very banged up secondary of the Dallas Cowboys. He hasn't gone over 50 yards in two weeks, and honestly, he is in dumpsville for sure. 
2. Philip Rivers - I know it sounds crazy, but I think I might literally sit Philip rivers this week. He hasn't been putting up huge numbers (best game at 18 points) and the Jets let a whole 6.4 points to opposing quarterbacks. That's not something like to see. If you have someone that you know will get you 10+ points, then stick him in your lineup.

Pick: Chargers 20, Jets 17

Chicago Bears @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (In London)
1:00 PM EST - FOX
Line: Chicago by 1.5
Over/Under: 43.5


Things That I'm Watching

• I'm not sure we'll ever know this, but who is Cutler's top receiver!? Every game he spreads the ball and there is not real "number one" target. Will one emerge this season, or will there never be fantasy value on the Bears.
• Same goes for the Buccaneers. What I said above is, sadly, about the same for Josh Freeman and the Buccaneers this season. Williams has been almost nonexistent and Parker is emerging, but could we see a change against the weak pass defense of the Bears?

Start

Source

1. Earnest Graham - He doesn't have a great matchup (14th against opposing running backs), but the running backs are averaging 15 points against them per game. When a running back like Graham is getting 90% of the workload, it is hard to sit him. Find a spot for Graham this week.
2. Jay Cutler - He has put up very solid numbers in all but one week (in a fluke game against Carolina). The Bucs allow an average of 15 points to opposing quarterbacks. The way Cutler has been playing and the way that the Buccaneers have been playing defense, well, that's a potion for success.

 Sit

1. Mike Williams - This is becoming an every week sit for just about everybody. He has done nothing this year, and until he shows his owners something, he is going to keep riding the bench or maybe even sit on free agents.
2. Johnny Knox - Yep, I'm sitting both #1 wide receivers on these two teams. He has been terrible, and Cutler just isn't throwing to him this year. I expected big things, but when a player hasn't scored eight points this year then it is hard to stick him in your lineup.

Pick: Buccaneers 27, Bears 17

Washington Redskins @ Carolina Panthers

1:00 PM EST - FOX
Line: Panthers by 2.5
Over/Under: 43


Things That I'm Watching

• Can Cam Newton be Cam Newton like, or is he just going to look like a typical rookie, like he has in the past few weeks? Washington has a fair defense, so if Cam Newton can put up huge numbers it would impress me.
• Well, at the beginning of the year (preseason), I thought Beck was definitively better than Grossman. And you know what else? Mike Shanahan didn't think that was the case. Now, Beck gets his chance, and he wouldn't of gotten a better matchup this week than the Panthers of Carolina. I think Beck could (I am treading lightly when I say this) throw for around 250 yards a couple touchdowns. But, I am really watching to see how Beck comes out and fights for his job.

Start

Source

1. John Beck - See Things That I'm Watching, bullet two. Good matchup, and is going to be fighting for his job.
2. Ryan Torain - Going up against the worst fantasy run defense? That's a plus. Try to find a place in your lineup for this guy, because if you don't then I guarantee that you will regret it.

 Sit

1. Cam Newton - Newton has not been playing like he started. He seems flustered in the pocket and he is making terrible decisions. The Redskins defense has actually been surprisingly good this year, and Newton has played surprisingly bad these last two weeks. I would try and find a replacement for Newton this week.
2. Panthers Running Backs - You never know which one is going to score. You know one of them will find their way to the promise land, but which one will it be!? Neither one is very appealing, but if I picked the much more consistent one in Johnathan Stewart. If they would just give the ball to one of these two more often then either one of these two could be top 15 running backs, very easily.

Pick: Panthers 24, Redskins 21

Kansas City Chiefs @ Oakland Raiders

4:05 PM EST - CBS
Line: Raiders by 4
Over/Under: 41


Things That I'm Watching

• Can Jackie Battle take the "lead back" role in KC and run with it? I want to see this kid run, and I really want to see him run well. This is by far the top thing I am watching in this game, because I have heard a lot about the kid and I barely saw him at all against the Colts.
• Is Carson Palmer or Kyle Boller (whoever is at quarterback) going to be looking for Darrius Heyward-Bey who just recently took the "bust" tag off of his name? Or will DHB fall back down to scum? Both of the guys I am watching for are both guys that I am cheering on because I like both of them a lot.

Start

Source

1. Jackie Battle - From what I heard, and the little that I saw against the Colts: This kid can run, and he is awfully good at it too. For more on Battle, check out my Bank/Tank.
2. Matt Cassel - He made my top ten this week for a reason. The Raiders' pass defense has looked terrible without Nnami Asomugha. In fact, they have allowed the third most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks in twenty-eleven. Stick Cassel in your lineup unless you have a stud on your team.

Sit

1. Oakland Wide Receivers - With the arrival of a new quarterback, none of the wide receivers are a go for me this week. Sorry Darrius Heyward-Bey!
2. Who else is there? Bowe has been on his game, the tight ends are obvious sits, and you aren't sitting Darren McFadden! Nothing to see here.

Pick: Chiefs 23, Raiders 13

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Arizona Cardinals

4:05 PM EST - CBS
Line: Steelers by 3.5
Over/Under: 43.5


Things That I'm Watching

• Can Rashard Mendenhall build off of what he did last week (23 carries for 146 and a touchdown)? Or is he going to return to the Mendenhall of old? He has a good matchup here (Cardinals are twentieth against opposing running backs allowing16.8 points per game), so I expect a nice game.
• Can the Steelers' run defense step up despite some of their major injuries? Wells has run very well this year, so this should be a very good matchup. Wells, a power back, matches up very well with a smash mouth (or used to be smash mouth) run defense.

Start

Source

1. Rob Housler - This is a real deep tight end play, but with Todd Heap out there is a good chance that Housler could be a big part of the Cardinals' game plan.
2. Beanie Wells - If I was running against the Steelers, they couldn't stop me right now. That's how bad they are right now. With all of the injuries, every running back is a good play.

Sit

1. Larry Fitzgerald - While the Steelers are struggling to stop the run, their corners have been playing top notch so far, which is not a commodity when it comes to Steelers football. They also have the top pass defense in football right now, and Kevin Kolb has not been playing good football. I think you know what I am getting to.
2. Kevin Kolb - See Fitzgerald, Larry right above.

Pick: Steelers 30, Cardinals 17




St.Louis Rams @ Dallas Cowboys

4:15 PM EST - FOX
Line: Cowboys by 14
Over/Under: 43


Things That I'm Watching

• How is the offensive line going to block for DeMarco Murray and Tashard Choice in this one? So far this season it has not been good, and I don't see that changing. But, there are always holes in the offensive line, so if Murray has better vision than Jones then he will look really good.
• How productive is Brandon Lloyd going to be in his first game as a Ram? Feeley is the quarterback, so this performance might not close the book on this season, but we will get an idea of how he is going to be used in this offense.

Cowboys BABY!

Start

1. All of your Cowboys - The Rams' defense is just all around terrible, and I expect a huge game from every Cowboy in this one. I even think that Tashard Choice might have a decent game here.

Sit

1. All of your Rams - The Cowboys have a stellar run defense (second in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks), so Steven Jackson is out of the question for me. Then you have AJ Feeley under center, and well, I feel the same as everyone else about having him under center. The only Ram that I think will have a serviceable game is Lance Kendricks because bad/inexperienced quarterbacks tend to lean on their safer options, and that safe option is usually the tight end.

Pick: Cowboys 34, Rams 13




Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings
4:15 PM EST - FOX
Line: Packers by 9.5
Over/Under: 47

Things That I'm Watching

• Christian Ponder impressed me in his rookie debut, but can he keep composure against the Packers? It is the Packers, but I still expect a nice game from Ponder here to be honest. I would guess that I would a better performance McNabb has had so far this season.
• James Starks or Ryan Grant? That is the question that might never be answered.

Start

Source

1. Percy Harvin - Ponder seemed to like him a lot in the time that he had in the game against the Bears. Not only do I expect that to continue this week, but the Vikings are playing the eighth worst fantasy defense in terms of opposing wide receivers. Harvin is definitely worth a flex this week.
2. Aaron Rodgers - I think this is indisputable, believe it or not: Aaron Rodgers is the best quarterback in the NFL right now. Who doesn't like this guy? Honestly, have you ever hear someone say that they hate Aaron Rodgers? Didn't think so.

Sit

1. Adrian Peterson - Not only are the Vikings going to be throwing a lot in this game, but the Packers have a very good run defense. They have only allowed 13 points to opposing running backs per game.. It's pretty apparent that you aren't going to sit the best running back in the NFL, but I don't think he goes for over 12 points.
2. Packers Running Backs - Neither of these guys are getting enough work to do anything for your fantasy team. The Vikings have to fourth best fantasy run defense to make it even worse. I think you can find a better running back than eith of these guys.

Pick: Packers 41, Vikings 17 (that's right, forty-one points)

Indianapolis Colts @ New Orleans Saints
8:27 PM EST - NBC
Line: Saints by 13.5
Over/Under: 49


Things That I'm Watching

• Will the Saints' defense live up to their 16 touchdowns allowed to opponents this season? Well, with Curtis Painter in the house (if you know what I mean) this could shape up for a nice matchup for the Saints. But Painter loves to spread the ball, so it will be interesting to see how this plays out on Sunday Night
• Rookie Mark Ingram will finally be in the spotlight on Sunday Night Football against one of the worst defenses in the NFL, and more importantly, he is on my fantasy team. So, hopefully he can rack up the points against in a great matchup.

Start

Source

1. Donald Brown - OK, I don't love him, but he is a better option than Delone Carter or Joesph Addai (who is rumored to play on Sunday). Carter has done nothing with the chances he has gotten in the past two weeks, and Addai is coming off of a hamstring injury. If I took my pick, it would be Brown.
2. Mark Ingram - The Colts' rush defense is really bad, and Ingram has become a bigger part of this offense in the last couple of weeks. I don't expect a huge game, but I expect the best of his young career on Sunday Night Football.

Sit

1. Reggie Wayne - Wayne has become more of a possession receiver in this offense instead of the guy who used to score touchdowns almost every week. With Peyton Manning out. Wayne is a guy who should just rot on your bench unless you are desperate.
2. Saints' Wide Receivers after Marques Colston - After Jimmy Graham and Marques Colston, there really isn't much to go around in terms of catches for the Saints' wide receivers. There certainly is not any fantasy value to be had.

Pick: Saints 33, Colts 20




Baltimore Ravens @ Jacksonville Jaguars

8:37 PM EST - ESPN
Line: Ravens by 9
Over/Under: 40


Things That I'm Watching

• Are the Ravens going to give up any ground to their opponents in terms of defense? Their defense has been stellar so far this year, and I'm sure they aren't to worried about Blaine Gabbert rupturing that trend. They should be a great fantasy play this week.
• I just want to watch Ray Rice, up close and personal. He is one of the players that I have watched the most this season because he is just so talented in every aspect of the game, but watching him on Monday Night is going to be even better.

Start

1. Anquan Boldin - If Johnathan Joseph can't shut this guy down, then I don't know who will except for maybe  atop corner in the game. Flacco likes to throw to him, and Flacco is throwing often. With no corner that is a good match for Boldin, I can see him having right around 100 yards and a touchdown.



Source

2. Ray Rice - Not only do I like the Ravens in this game, but, like I mentioned, I also love Ray Rice.The Jaguars defense have a pretty good front seven, but I expect Rice to get to the outside and also receive the ball quite a bit in this game.

Sit

1. Maurice Jones-Drew - I still think you have to stick him in your lineup, because he is going to get you some points, but the Ravens defense is staunch against the run. They have allowed just one touchdown on the ground and average just 10 points per game to opposing running backs. Like I said, I think you still need to try to find a spot for Mo-Jo but I wouldn't expect more than around 10-12 points from him.
2. Sit Your Jaguars - Well, now that I have talked about MJD, I just wanted to say that you shouldn't be playing any other Jaguars. Gabbert isn't a good option against this defense of the Ravens, Marcedes Lewis has been nonexistant, and with the addition of Mike Smis-Walker, their wide receiving corps is mind-boggling. At this point, none on these guys should be in your lineup.

Pick: Ravens 24, Jaguars 13


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


Thanks for reading. Gabe will be back with another pickup article on Tuesday, and I will also be posting my "Let Them Preach" on Tuesday. I did not post a Let Them Preach article after week 6 because I got caught up in family stuff and did not find the time to. If you have any lineup questions before the games start on Sunday, then feel free to hit me up on Twitter. Also, don't forget to check out the rankings and also the Injury Report for all of the most important and up the minute news on Sunday. Otherwise, until Tuesday, I am out!

Crazy Gabey's Week 6 Pick Ups

By: Gabriel Harber

The bye week madness is fully upon us and for those of you sitting at 2-4 or 3-3 this means scrambling on the wire to find a suitable replacement, before you drop too far out of playoff contention.  It’s important to keep your cool in these frantic times as I’ve seen more than one owner in my leagues throw a guy like Steven Jackson or Antonio Gates on the wire for a one week fill-in.

Don’t be that guy.

The human psyche is an interesting place indeed.  Capable of producing the greatest scientific, philosophical, and technological accomplishments, we can also become creatures of base instinct at the first sign of chaos.  I say this all to serve a cautionary tale.  Be careful of the activity you engage in during these trying times.  Should I blow my number 1 priority?  Am I just going to drop him after this week?  Do I think my injured/underperforming stud will get it together after I drop him, not only weakening my team, but strengthening another?  All questions that need to be asked before you make any move from here on out.

Take a slow, deep breath, and let’s look at our options this week.

Remember Us? (Bye Week Steals)

Jackie Battle:  If no one snagged him after his week 4 coming out party, then they most likely forgot about him again because of the bye week.  Against a weak Oakland run defense this represents more than just a bye week fill-in, but a long term option.  The buzz coming out of KC is that coaches have faith in his ability, and as long as he performs, the starting gig is his to lose.  It’s a rare gem indeed to find a feature back this late in the season.

Doug Baldwin:The name isn’t recognizable, and the team is unassuming, but Baldwin has quietly been the most productive offensive weapon on a suddenly surging (and I use that term loosely) Seahawks team.  As the Birds continue to find their stride, I expect more games like he had in week 4.  You’ll want to grab him no matter what.

If They Are Still There

Antonio Gates:  I noticed many disgusted owners dropping him after he posted pathetic numbers followed up with a goose egg against New England.  You can take advantage of those who refused to read in between the lines, as Gates has been planning on returning after the bye week all along.  He practiced Monday and claims that while he can never guarantee how his foot will feel day to day, it currently feels 100%.

Steven Jackson:  This is another guy that was prematurely dropped.  I’m sure most owners had full intentions of riding out the injury on account of their 3^rd round pick investment, but when the Rams started sucking figured it was time to look elsewhere.  SJax has looked as powerful as ever the last two games, and with the addition of Brandon Lloyd on the outside to stretch the safeties, better days are ahead in St. Louis.

Earnest Graham:  He should have been grabbed before this week with report of Blount’s injury ranging from 1-2 weeks to “several.”  An MCL tear of any variety is cause for concern, and with the performance Graham gave on Sunday, the Bucs will be in no hurry to rush their young franchise player back.  If your league is PPR you have an additional interest here as Graham is an exceptional pass-catcher.

Fred Davis:  There was a moment where everyone on the Freddie-wagon was worried that Cooley had swooped in, and in one hunk of a man Fabio moment, stolen his job back.  I scoffed and quietly held onto Davis in two of my leagues.  Now it seems that Cooley is out for significant amount time again, and the Redskins are back to giving their second most talented offensive weapon his due targets.  Davis is a top 10 play from here on out.  If you can grab him off the wire consider yourself blessed.

The Pick-Ups

Demaryius Thomas/Eddie Royal:  With Brandon Lloyd on his way out of town, someone will have to step up in the new Tebow led offense, opposite of Eric Decker.  Both wideouts are expected back against the woeful Dolphins this week, and I actually like Thomas a little more here as the flashes of brilliance he displayed before going down with an injury last season have me excited about his potential.  Regardless, these are more boom/bust than usual, as the offense could take some huge steps backwards and become much more run-oriented.  Proceed with optimistic caution.

Preston Parker/Arrelious Benn:  These two are a little safer as we already know what to expect.  Both receivers have put in an  above average body of work thus far, and I see the Tampa offense continuing on an upward trend from here on out (think Josh Freeman finding his stride mid-season last year.)  Parker probably represents the greater value if you’re PPR, while Benn is the better standard league option.

C.J. Spiller:  Let me start off by saying this is a guy I have never been a fan of.  Do you ever have someone that gets under your skin for no real reason?  That’s Spiller for me, and I suppose it probably has something to with all the hype he has continually received in place of Fred Jackson, whom I’ve been saying is the real deal the past two and half seasons.  Well it finally seemed like the rest of the world had caught up to my genius, and then the Bills coaching staff gives me a reason to actually endorse the guy.  Spiller lined up as a wideout Sunday and played the role to moderate success, especially for those of you in PPR formats.  While I don’t think he’s going to blow our minds and take Stevie Johnson’s place, he could develop into a unique talent with RB/WR eligibility making him a rare breed, and one that you wouldn’t mind rostering for softer matchups or bye week fill-ins.

Jake Ballard:  In a suddenly high flying show in New York, a new tight end has emerged.  Ballard has caught at least 3 passes in the past 3 games, went for over 70 yards twice, and scored a touchdown in two of them.  As long as Nicks, Manningham, and Cruz continue shredding the corners, the seam will stay open and Ballard represents strong TE2 value.

Other Notables:  John Beck, Greg Little, Danario Alexander, Greg Salas, Torrey Smith, Visanthe Shiancoe.

Take a deep breath, consider your options carefully, and click that “add” button with confidence.  Until next week gentlemen, g’day.

Questions?  Follow me on Twitter.

Week 6 Game Analysis

By: Christian Hardy

Last week, the first week of NFL byes, was pretty awful. Just like I predicted, there was a lot of coin-flip games, and well, I had the wrong side of the coin. My record for my game picks was 8-5. This, in my opinion, was my worst week yet. But, I'm going to come back this week and I'll rectify those losses. There should be some great games this week, and we're just starting to learn teams true identity.

Remember, the matchup (Eagles @ Redskins) will be linked to the ESPN Preview, so feel free to click on that. Also, the starts/sits aren't guys I would literally start and sit, but rather, guys that I expect to over perform (start) or under perform (sit). You can see the lines and over/under that I use here. With all of that said, let's get this show rolling.



St.Louis Rams @ Green Bay Packers
1:00 PM EST - FOX
Line: Paackers by 14
Over/Under: 47.5

Start
Jordy Nelson - I know that a lot of people are jumping on James Jones, but I think both of these games that he has scored double digits have been flukes. If I have the choice between Nelson and Jones, then I am going with Nelson. Both should have good games though.

James Starks - The Rams' rush defense is terrible: They allowing over 23 points per game and ranked 30th. That right there gives you enough to start him, but I have more. The Packers are going to be up in this game against the 0-4 Rams. What do teams do when they get ahead? Pound the ball with the running game.

Sit 
Steven Jackson - Jackson free-falled all the way to 26th in my running back rankings this week. It is clear that I do not like him. Not only are the Rams going to be trying for a comeback all game, but the Packers have a very good run defense; they average only 13.8 points to opposing running backs. I wouldn't want to be starting him this week, and if you are, well, good luck.

Ryan Grant - See Starks, James.

Pick: Packers 30, Rams 10

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Pittsburgh Steelers
1:00 PM EST - CBS
Line: Pittsburgh by 12
Over/Under: 40

Start
Antonio Brown - I think that the Jaguars take Mike Wallace away in this game with their very underrated pass defense, and that is going to open the field for Antonio Brown who had an off week last week. Look for Brown to score around 70 yards and find the end zone for the first time this year.

Heath Miller - Last week he finally found a role in this offense, and the Jaguars allow the second most points to opposing tight ends. Look for Miller to return to him old self, if fact, I even like him going forward.

Sit
Mike Wallace - See Brown, Antonio.

Mike Thomas - This one is pretty obvious, but I just wanted to make it clear. For starters, Blaine Gabbert is throwing him the ball. He has not only been struggling, but now he is going up against one of the toughest defenses in the league. Plus, the Steelers allow just 11.2 points to opposing wide receivers per game! Yeah, I'm not seeing a good game for Thomas is this one.

Pick: Steelers 24, Jaguars 13

Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Redskins
1:00 PM EST - FOX
Line: Eagles by 3
Over/Under: 47

Start
Jabar Gaffney - It's not the number one receiver that the Eagles are having trouble defending, it is the guys around top receiver that the Eagles can't defend. Gaffney has put up decent flex points week in and week out (11,6,6,6 are his point totals in the first four weeks), but I think that this is the week that he finds the endzone. I also like Fred Davis in this game against the Philadelphia linebackers.

All of your Eagles - Remember last time that the Eagles played the Redskins at FedEx field? I think we all do. Vick went off for over 400 total yards including the six times that he found the end zone. McCoy also had a strong performance too. I think you are starting everyone from the Eagles this week unless you have a much better option.

Ryan Torain - We all know that the Eagles' rush defense is really bad, so if Torain gets the carries (and I think he will), he should have a beneficial performance. Before the Redskins' bye, Torain led the way with 19 carries, 135 yards, and a touchdown. Like I said, if he can get the carries, he will have a big game against this defense.

Sit
Tim Hightower/Roy Helu - With the emergence of Torain, these two guys are going to see very little work and we don't know what Shanahan has in store for them. If you start either of these guys then you are just praying for a touchdown, and there aren't many to go around for the Redskins as a whole.

Pick: Redskins 30, Eagles 28

San Francisco 49ers @ Detroit Lions
1:00 PM EST - FOX
Line: Lions by 3
Over/Under: 46

Start
Titus Young - Look. by no means is this a safe call, but it is a high upside, very deep call. If you are fishing for a receiver and this guy is on the waivers then he might have some value going up against one of the weakest pass defenses in the NFL (24th).

Michael Crabtree - The Lions don't have a great pass defense (14th, 17.8 points to opposing wide receivers) and I expect to see a lot of balls thrown Crabtree's way.

Sit
Jahvid Best - The 49ers have been gobbling up running backs' fantasy value every week. They average only 7.2 points to opposing wide receivers, and before the huge run last week, Jahvid Best hasn't looked all that great. Best is a flex at best, and that means you are banking on a touchdown.

Nate Burleson - He has been almost non-existent in the passing game this year (two points in the last three weeks), and I don't expect a turn around this week.

Pick: Lions 27, 49ers 20

Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons
1:00 PM EST - FOX
Line: Atlanta by 4
Over/Under: 50.5

Start
Michael Turner - Without a doubt, you are starting this guy every week. But as I said in my Bank/Tank, ESPN ranked him 8th against one of the worst fantasy run defenses in the league. I expect a 15-20 point game from Turner in this one.

Steve Smith - Brent Grimes hasn't been able to hold down a single #1 wide receiver yet this year. Greg Jennings and Jeremy Maclin (while Jackson was injured) both beat Grimes all day, and guess who is going to be on Smith? Let's just say that his last name rhymes with times...

Sit
Carolina Running Backs - Falcons run defense isn't stellar, but it doesn't matter who the Panthers are playing. You should be keeping both of these guys every week unless one starts to stand out.

Harry Douglas - Some people are picking this guy up, and even starting him!? Did Douglas do anything last year when there was no Julio Jones? Didn't think so. What's so different about him coming in this year. Look for Tony Gonzalez to be more productive though.

Pick: Panthers 27, Falcons 24


Indianapolis Colts @ Cincinnati Bengals
1:00 PM EST - CBS
Line: Bengals by 7
Over/Under: 41

Start
All of your Bengals - I can't believe I am saying this (I really can't), but every single guy on this team should be started in the right situation. Benson broke my top ten again, AJ Green is consistently scoring  double digit fantasy points, and Jermaine Gresham has touchdowns in two games straight. Andy Dalton isn't a bad go either if you are really digging deep.

Pierre Garcon - If you haven't figured it out, every time that Curtis Painter throws the ball it goes to Garcon. I think that is enough to put him in the "start" section.

Sit
All of your Colts-  Curtis Painter has no value from a fantasy standpoint, Wayne might be a decent flex, but I say no, and the running backs (Brown and Carter) are going to be in a split. To go along with those four guys, Dallas Clark has been completely forgotten by the Colts' quarterbacks. I'll tell you what though, I would start Donald Brown before I started Delone Carter. Brown looked great after Addai went down last week and Carter was ridiculous. Brown is the only guy I would consider starting.

Pick: Bengals 23, Colts 16


Buffalo Bills @ New York Giants
1:00 PM EST - CBS
Line: Giants by 3
Over/Under: 50

 Start
Ahmad Bradshaw - Brandon Jacobs is out again, and the Giants have a sweet matchup. Enough said.

Jake Ballard - He has scored two touchdowns in his last two games. If you're looking for a tight end, then I think you have found your guy.

Sit
Ryan Ftizpatrick - He has put up single digits in two straight games, and at this point, I don't think that he is a fantasy starter.


Mario Manningham -  The job is all for Victor Cruz. Cruz is getting more snaps, and a lot more targets, than Manningham. Cruz has had three big games in a row, and Manningham has done nothing. Is that enough for you? I hope so.

Pick: Bills 30, Giants 23


Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens
4:05 PM EST - CBS
Line: Ravens by 8
Over/Under: 45

Start
Torrey Smith - Anquan Boldin should be taken care of by Johnathan Joesph and that is going to leave Smith to Kareem Jackson, one of the worst starting corner backs that is starting in the NFL.

Owen Daniels - While the Ravens take care of the wide receivers, I think Daniels could find a hole or two in the Ravens' defense.

Sit
All of your Texans - The Ravens have ravaged their opponents, allowing only one touchdown to opposing offenses when they are at home. I'm not sure it's going to be much different this week. As you see in the score below, I think the Texans will score only one touchdown tomorrow.

Anquan Boldin - See Smith, Torrey

Pick: Ravens 24, Texans 19

Cleveland Browns @ Oakland Raiders
4:05 PM EST - CBS
Line: Raiders by 6.5
Over/Under: 44.5

Start
Greg Little - The Raiders' pass defense is really bad (30th), and they have allowed over 23 points to opposing wide receivers. The Browns announced that Little would take the wide receiver number two spot this week, so this is Little's chance to show his coaches what he can do. His snap count will increase very little, but I think you are going to see more balls flying Little's way.

Darrius Heyward-Bey - The last two weeks he has been stellar and the while the Browns have the best passing defense in the league, I think we are going to see more coverage go more Denarius Moore's way.

Other: Darren McFadden

Sit
Jason Campbell - As I said earlier, the Browns have the best pass defense in the league (yardage wise). I think that is a bad sign for Campbell even though he has played well at home this year.

Denarius Moore - See Heyward-Bey, Darrius.

Pick: Raiders 27, Browns 23

Dallas Cowboys @ New England Patriots
4:15 PM EST - FOX
Line: Patriots by 6.5
Over/Under: 55.5

Start

Cowboys' Wide Receivers - This is the perfect time for the Cowboys' wide outs to be healthy. They take on the worst pass defense in the New England Patriots, and I expect big number from both of these guys. Austin says that he is completely healthy and Bryant is a touchdown machine.

Wes Welker - The Cowboys have no one who can cover this guy, and unless they get a lot of pressure on Brady, Welker is going to shred this defense into little bits and pieces.

Sit
All Running Backs - To kick it off, this game is going to be a shootout, and the ball isn't going to be on the ground when it's a quarterback's duel. Did you order a side of tough run defense? The Cowboys are the number one rush defense in the league. I expect very little from the "Lawfirm"

Jason Witten - You still have to start this guy, but I am worried sick about that fact that the Patriots shut down Antonio Gates. I, in fact, am still starting Witten in my main league. So I still have faith, I just think that you need to temper your expectations.


Pick: Cowboys 30, Patriots 27 (OT)


New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
4:15 PM EST - FOX
Line: Saints by 5
Over/Under: 49.5

Start
Darren Sproles -  He is now an every week start. In four of his five games he has gone over double digits in fantasy points. The matchup is favorable, Sproles is playing well; I think you're going to see a good game from Sproles in this one.

Earnest Graham - He is going to be taking the spot of LeGarrette Blount, and I expect to see a very nice game both through the air and on the ground. The Saints are 16th against the rush, so it isn't an awesome matchup, but that number is deceptive. The Saints have also allowed four touchdowns to their opposin running backs, and that's what Graham does best. I expect 80 yards and a touchdown from Graham this week.

Sit
Mike Williams - He hasn't done anything thus far in the 2011 season. I am sitting Mike Williams in every league for now, and hopefully we will see a turn around soon with the type of talent that Williams has.

Josh Freeman - Just like Mike Williams, Freeman just isn't producing. This offense is in a trap right now, and it's going to be tough for them to dig their way out of it.

Pick: Saints 28, Buccaneers 13


Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Beanrs
8:27 PM EST -NBC
Line: Bears by 2.5
Over/Under: 41.5

Start
Jay Cutler - If he can handle the pressure from the Vikings, they have a very rough secondary. They only allow 13.6 points to opposing quarterbacks, but don't be fooled: Last week Kolb scored only two points against them, and in week two Freeman had just 12. The quality quarterbacks that have taken on this team have been very productive.

Johnny Knox - Gut call here, and that is really all I have to say. He didn't show up last week, and I think he wants to rectify that this week. If you are looking for a flex, this could be your guy.

Sit
Matt Forte - The Vikings have the fifth run defense in the league, including the fourth best fantasy run defense. I am not literally sitting Forte, but I would limit your expectations.

Percy Harvin - The Bears aren't allowing touchdowns through the air (3), and Harvin isn't finding the end zone any time soon. To add on to all of that, McNabb has looked awful in these past two weeks in terms of passing the football. Keep Harvin on your bench until he scores some substantial points.

Pick: Bears 20, Vikings 14

Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets
Monday, 8:37 PM EST - ESPN
Line: Jets by 7
Over/Under: 42.5

Start
Santonio Holmes - The Dolphins have a bad pass defense (the numbers lie), and I think Mark Sanchez is going to torch this defense. Find a spot for Holmes in your lineup.

Daniel Thomas - If he is going to play through the injury, the Jets' rush defense has looked really bad in recent weeks. Usually when you see that your running back is playing Rex Ryan's defense, your run away from it, but lately that isn't the case. Stick Thomas in your lineup, depending on news you get Monday night.

Sit
Reggie Bush - The only way I like him is if Daniel Thomas is out. Other than that, Thomas is getting all of the carries for this team right now and Bush is no longer part of this offense.

Brandon Marshall - Darrelle Revis, Matt Moore, and the Meadowlands don't mix. Marshall has been shut down by Revis in the past, and do you expect much Moore (pun intended) this week?

Pick: Jets 34, Dolphins 13

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Thanks for reading. Don't forget to check out my rankings for your positional start and sits, and make sure to look at the Injury Report for all of the most important injury news and notes. If you have any other questions or comments on a players' status for Sundays' game, then check out my Twitter or just shoot me an email. Gabe will have his pickup article out on Monday, so look for that, but until then, go win your match up!

Week 6 Injury Report

By:  Zach Jacobson

Bad puns aside, Blount was really the largest fantasy injury this week (I am sorry for Texans fans, but I don't do IDP).  Man I really hate these introductions, so we might as well roll up our pant legs and wade right in.

The Injuries

LeGarrette Blount:  As you might've guessed from the awful, awful title, Blount damaged his knee.  He's expected to miss week 6, and with players on byes this could really kill your fantasy teams chances this weekend.  I might add Earnest Graham in a deep league, but apparently Kregg Lumpkin (WHO!) could get most of the carries.  It's really a terrible situation and there has to be better options on waivers.

Julio Jones:  Seems like he'll miss next week as well.  I really don't think it helps Gonzalez or Roddy White (though White's a monster and more targets could mean more production for him...regardless of coverage), but the real winner here is Harry Douglas.  His moments have been few and far between so far this season, but with defenses tightening up on White and Gonzo holes could open up for Douglas.  

Joseph Addai:  Can you go just one year without getting hurt Joseph Addai!  Your allowed to miss a few games if your name is Steven Jackson, but when your only a pretty good back who's goal was to simply open up Manning's passing game you can't be missing games every single season in your career.  His injury really opens up possibilities for a guy I've already had stashed on all my benches...Delone Carter.  Carter's bad performance in week 5 was saved by a touchdown, but with Addai hurt you could see Carter getting 10+ carries a game, including the goal line ones.  Donald Brown has all but worn out his welcome in Indianapolis, and Carter has a great chance to gain the majority of the carries.

The Replacements

Good To Go:  Delone Carter

Stay AWAY:  Earnest Graham, Kregg Lumpkin, Donald Jones

Caught in the Middle:  Harry Douglas

Look for this article on Mondays or Wednesdays, or if you want to see my other work check me out at ReclinerQB.com's Fantasy Corner.  Christian is featured there every Tuesday.

Want to get instant updates on my fantasy football thoughts?  Follow me on THE Twitter @Zatchj62

Or feel free to email me at msuhoopz62@att.net

Editors Note: Christian says "Good To Go" includes Donald Brown who averaged 4.8 yards per carry to Delone Carter's 1.8. I also think Kregg Lumpkin is a deep start since Earnest GRaham will spend a lot of time at fullback,but these are Zach's thoughts, not mine.