August 31, 2011

Overvalued QBs and Undervalued RBs

After a day off (do you consider a night full of homework a night off?) I have completely prepared my blog for today and I think I found the best candidates. I think you might be surprised. Let's run over some news real quick so we can move to the undervalued/overvalued.

The story that every fantasy owner seems to be fretting about is Arian Foster's hamstring. ESPN's John Clayton said he is expected to miss 3-4 weeks because in the MRI there was a small tear. Before you go drop James Starks and go get Ben Tate let me tell you: this is not as serious as the media and others are making it. Arian Foster is still not taking it seriously and thinks he will play in week one. He might not be full health but he should be 90% for week two. Even if you are going to pick some one up, I'm not sure you want to grab Ben Tate. Many people around the Texans think that Derrick Ward will be the guy in Houston if Foster misses a game despite Tate's great preseason. I would stay away from the Houston backfield completely in week one. In the long run, if Foster performs like last year, he will still be far ahead (fantasy points wise) of any running back at the end of the year, even with sitting out a game or two. Don't worry about this injury; if Arian himself isn't taking it seriously (check out his twitter) then neither should you.

Arian Foster went down with a hamstring injury in Saturday's game. It was later found to be a small tear.

Another rather small story out Jacksonville: after Rashad Jenning's knee sprain in the Jaguars game on Saturday, he was seen at Tuesday's practice on crutches. So unfortunate for the Jaguars because right as Maurice Jones-Drew is ready to go, Jennings goes down. There is not much news on Jennings but if he is to miss a game (he will miss the final preseason game) then Deji Karim will be the Jaguars backup running back.

Rashad Jenning (knee) was seen on crutches on Tuesday.

Now for my first overvalued quarterback I present to you: Kevin Kolb. As of now, he is being drafted in the 11th round, which is way too high for Kolb. He has yet to really prove himself, and he really hasn't shown us much. In the 11th round he is going over guys like: Kyle Orton who we talked about on Monday, as well as Jay Cutler and Joe Flacco. This is ridiculous. I know he was covered a lot by the media, and that is probably a big factor. But drafting him over proven quarterbacks is not a smart move. I wouldn't take Kolb until the 13th or 14th round, just let some one else take that risk.

I'd rather let someone else take Kevin Kolb in the 11th/12th rounds.
Since there really aren't many overvalued quarterbacks this year, let's just move on ahead to the undervalued running backs, then I will give you a really deep guy, just like I did on quarterbacks. My first undervalued guy in Tim Hightower. Many people are against this guy since he is part of a three-headed Shanahan monster. I know it is a reach, but I would take Hightower in the sixth or maybe even fifth round if you are in a standard non-PPR league. Redskins say he is the guy for week one (still, Shanahan is the coach I mean come on) . I really like the guy if he stays in that role. Just a side note on the Redskins: I think John Beck will be the starting QB and I think he will be fairly decent. Not as bad as others think, at least.

My second guy is Reggie Bush. People are worried about injury concerns, I know, I know; but this guy is very explosive and if he stays healthy I think he will have 1,500+ all purpose yards., mark my works. The guy has looked great in preseason and I think he has found new life in Miami. He is being drafted in the eighth round right now, I think that is about right, but a lot of the time you can wait and grab him in the ninth or tenth rounds. That being said, do not go off and draft him in the sixth or seventh round like some people do because of the name. If you use a pick like that you put your trust that he will not get injured, and, well, that is just plain stupid.

But you know what's not stupide final round? Grabbing a deep sleeper at RB in ths of your draft. The guy I'm grabbing? It has to be LaRod Stephens-Howling. He is going to be backup to an injury machine, Beanie Wells. LaRod can catch the ball better than Beanie meaning he is going to find time on the field for that, but it's not just his pass receiving skills. We have seen Beanie get benched by Coach Ken Whisenhunt in the past. Of course, it wasn't for Stephens-Howling, but it does tell you that Beanie could get benched sometime before this season is over. I would be taking Stephens-Howling in the third to last round before you grab your defense or kicker.

Hope you guys enjoyed. Come back tomorrow for my overvalued RBs and my undervalued WRs. Until then you can follow me on Twitter: @TheFFAddict. Thanks for reading!



August 29, 2011

2011 Fantasy Football: Quarterback Sleepers

After a bland weekend in the world of sports (except for those Little League World Series fans..), I'm going to waste no time getting to my preseason quarterback wrap-up for this year. For every position I will name two to three undervalued players, two overvalued players, and one or two deep sleepers. Quarterback was by far my hardest position to pick these guys since there are the least amount of injuries at the quarterback position, but let's get started.


My first undervalued quarterback for 2011 is Sam Bradford. The first overall pick in last year's draft, had a nice rookie campaign despite his 76.5 quarterback rating. Even with #1 wide receiver Donnie Avery out for the year, he spread the ball around and reminded many people of a young Peyton Manning (I was one of them). But this year he is going to be even better, in my opinion. He now has more targets, as well as a year under his belt and an entire training camp to learn the new offense. Bradford now has an extra addition to the team Mike Sims-Walker, he made Danny Amdendola a somebody last year, and now has Donnie Avery back in the mix. I wouldn't be surprised if the kid throws for over 4,000 yards this season.



Another good, undervalued pick that people are starting to scavenge is Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford. He has become everyone's new fantasy sleeper. Stafford went from being drafted in the 11th round in fantasy drafts to the 9th round since May 8th and is still on the rise. While I still don't trust him as a starter quite yet, I do think he is a very strong backup. Although he was injured the majority of the 2010 campaign, Stafford showed some immense talent in the games that he played. Of course, Calvin Johnson, Nate Burleson, Titus Young, and a much improved Maurice Stovall won't hurt his talent. Look for Stafford to finish among the top 10 QBs in fantasy points this year, and on some teams, be a started byt eh end of the year. Although I like him a lot, if you grab an elite QB in your draft you should sell high on Stafford in the regular season and get another RB/WR. He is known to get injured often, and if he has the hot hand and you've got back up then sell high on him.

One last undervalued guy (this one should be short and sweet) is Kyle Orton. I don't see why he goes so late in drafts this year. Broncos have been prominent that Orton will be the starter in Denver, Tebow has dropped to the third string role according to Pro Football Talk, and Brady Quinn is Brady Quinn. This guy's team has remained the same with the exception of losing some minor receivers to the Redskins. But to level that out, Orton has a healthy Moreno that has great pass-catching ability. In a 10 man league on fantasyfootballcalculator.com, Orton's average draft position (ADP) is in the 13th round after guys like Cassel, Kolb, and Bradford. This guy had a great season in Denver last year and I guess I don't see why people are so down on him this year.

Now my deep sleeper that was my sleeper even before the preseason is Colt McCoy. McCoy has been moving up many fantasy owners' draft board because of his excellent performances since the first preseason game. I have liked this guy ever since he joined the NFL and started believing in him even more when he became the starter and lit it up at the end of last season. I'm not saying you should expect 4,000 yards from this guy, but you can usually grab him in the last few rounds of your draft and I think that will be great value for a backup quarterback that has full potential (see 2010) of becoming a top fantasy quarterback.

That concludes my quarterback sleepers article, come back tomorrow for some overvalued quarterbacks and some undervalued running backs. Until then, you can follow me on Twitter: http://twitter.com/#!/theffaddict or email me at cshardy@att.net.

Note: All ADPs the writer will be using in this series of undervalued and overvalued players will be taken from fantasyfootballcalculator.com and you can check them out here: http://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp.php




 

August 28, 2011

2011 Second Fantasy Football Rankings

After two preseason games, in some cases three, I am ready to release my second set of fantasy football rankings. This go around I am going to include my defense rankings and kicker (yeah, i know, who really cares?). Same order as usual with 30 QBs, 64 RBs, 64 WRs, 25 TEs, 20 defenses, and 20 kickers.

QBs
1. Mike Vick
2. Aaron Rodgers
3. Tom Brady
4. Philip Rivers
5. Drew Brees
6. Tony Romo
7. Peyton Manning
8. Matt Schaub
9. Matt Ryan
10. Josh Freeman
11. Ben Roetlisberger
12. Kyle Orton
13. Matt Stafford
14. Joe Flacco
15. Matt Cassel
16. Jay Cutler
17. Eli Manning
18. Sam Bradford
19. Kevin Kolb
20. Colt McCoy
21. Donavan McNabb
22. Cam Newton
23. David Garrard
24. Ryan Fitzpatrick
25. Mark Sanchez
26. Jason Campbell
27. Matt Hasselbeck
28. John Beck
29. Tavaris Jackson
30. Chad Henne

RBs
1. Adrian Peterson
2. Arian Foster
3. Jamaal Charles
4. Chris Johnson
5. Ray Rice
6. Lesean McCoy
7. Rashard Mendenhall
8. Frank Gore
9. Maurice Jones-Drew
10. Michael Turner
11. Matt Forte
12. Darren McFadden
13. Steven Jackson
14. Knowshon Moreno
15. Peyton Hillis
16. Ahmad Bradshaw
17. LeGarrette Blount
18. Cedric Benson
19. Felix Jones
20. DeAngelo Williams
21. Jahvid Best
22. Shonn Greene
23. Johnathan Stewart
24. Fred Jackson
25. Mark Ingram
26. BenJarvus Green-Ellis
27. Ryan Mathews
28. Reggie Bush
29. Beanie Wells
30. Joseph Addai
31. James Starks
32. Marshawyn Lynch
33. Tim Hightower
34. Ryan Grant
35. Mike Tolbert
36. Ryan Torain
37. DanielThomas
38. Pierre Thomas
39. Brandon Jacobs
40. CJ Spiller
41. Ladanian Tomlinson
42. Tashard Choice
43. Michael Bush
44. Willis McGahee
45. Darren Sproles
46. Jerome Harrison
47. Bernard Scott
48. Danny Woodhead
49. Rashad Jennings
50. Ben Tate
51. Montario Hardesty
52. Javon Ringer
53. Thomas Jones
54. Marion Barber
55. Roy Helu
56. Ronnie Brown
57. Jaimie Harper
58. Leon Washington
59. Larod Stepens-Howling
60. Mike Goodson
61. Delone Carter
62. Demarco Murray
63. Jacquizz Rodgers
64. Ricky Williams

WRs
1.Andre Johnson
2. Calvin Johnson
3. Roddy White
4. Larry Fitzgerald
5. Greg Jennings
6. Hakeem Nicks
7. Mike Wallace
8. Vincent Jackson
9. Miles Austin
10. Reggie Wayne
11. Brandon Lloyd
12. Desean Jackson
13. Dwayne Bowe
14. Santonio Holmes
15. Dez Bryant
16. Mike Williams
17. Anquan Boldin
18. Jeremy Maclin
19. Marques Colston
20. Steve Johnson
21. Brandon Marshall
22. Wes Welker
23. Percy Harvin
24. Sidney Rice
25. Pierre Garcon
26. Mario Manningham
27. Steve Smtih (Car)
28. Kenny Britt
29. Julio Jones
30. Austin Collie
31. Santana Moss
32. AJ Green
33. Johnny Knox
34. Chad Ochocinco
35. Malcom Floyd
36. Jerome Simpson
37. Mike Sims-Walker
38. Mike Thomas
39. Braylon Edwards
40. Emanuel Sanders
41. Roy Williams
42. Lance Moore
43. Michael Crabtree
44. Lee Evans
45. Anthony Armstrong
46. Jordy Nelson
47. Davone Bess
48. Jacoby Ford
49. Steve Breaston
50. Robert Meachem
51. Mike Williams
52. Louis Murphy
53. Andre Roberts
54. Josh Cribbs
55. James Jones
56. Plaxico Burress
57. Darius Heyward-Bey
58. Michael Jenkins
59. Danny Amendola
60. Nate Burleson
61. Jacoby Jones
62. Brian Robiskie
63. Leonard Hankerson
64. Hines Ward

TEs
1. Antonio Gates
2. Jason Witten
3. Dallas Clark
4. Vernon Davis
5. Jermichael Finley
6. Owen Daniels
7. Jimmy Graham
8. Marcedes Lewis
9. Zach Miller
10. Chris Cooley
11. Greg Olsen
12. Brandon Pettigrew
13. Kellen Winslow
14. Jermaine Gresham
15. Dustin Keller
16. Rob Gronkowski
17. Brent Celek
18. Tony Moeaki
19. Aaron Hernandez
20.Todd Heap
21. Jared Cook
22. Ed Dickson
23. Ben Watson
24. Kevin Boss
25. Heath Miller

D/ST
1. Steelers
2. Eagles
3. Packers
4. Jets
5. Ravens
6. Bears
7. Falcons
8. Chargers
9. Giants
10. Saints
11. Patriots
12. Buccaneers
13. Lions
14. Chiefs
15. Cowboys
16. 49ers
17. Rams
18. Titans
19. Cardinals
20. Vikings

K
1. Sebastian Janikowski
2. Nate Kaeding
3. Stephen Gostowski
4. Rob Bironas
5. Dan Carpenter
6. David Akers
7. Matt Prater
8. Alex Henery
9. Matt Bryant
10. Garrett Hartley
11. Josh Brown
12. Neil Rackers
13. Nick Folk
14. Mason Crosby
15. Ryan Succop
16. Adam Vinatieri
17.  Robbie Gould
18. Josh Scobee
19. Jay Feely
20. Ryan Longwell

Thanks for reading. I will post again tonight or tomorrow about sleepers, and another batch of rankings will be up next weekend. Good luck drafting!




August 25, 2011

Thursday, August 25th, 2011 NFL Fantasy Football Wrap-Up

Welcome back fantasy owners,

Week three of preseason football has kicked off and I'm prepared to tell you, readers, two players that caught my eye on Thursday night in the first batch of week three preseason games. I will most likely run through a couple of players in each game that caught my eye that may affect your draft, but only after we check out some of the news from the NFL.

There wasn't any major news from the National Football League today, but there was some notable news, and to kick it all off let's shift to Julio Jones. Jones has made a huge impact on me in all of camp, and he is making impressions on his coaches and front office too. Falcons GM Thomas Dimitroff was very positive about his performance and Dimitroff emphasized that Jones is "very focused" and "very competitive". Seeing that his team likes him makes me think more passes will be flying his way. I will continue to move him up my rankings until the start of the season.

Now for my news that has little to no fantasy value, and that is rookie QB Terrelle Pryor signed with the Raiders on Thursday evening, three days after being drafted by the Raiders in the third round of the supplemental draft. "Pryor receives a $586,000 signing bonus, and a base salary of $375,000 (pre-suspension).  In 2012, he’ll earn $485,000, and he’s eligible to earn a $20,300 incentive based on playing time.  In 2013, the salary is $595,000 with a $40,700 play-time incentive.  In 2014, the salary moves to $645,000, with a $61,100 play-time incentive," According to ProFootballTalk.com. Although it is unlikely, I could see Pryor seeing some time on the field this year considering that Campbell was benched for Gradkowski in multiple games last year.


Time to move on to the preseason games now, and the first of three games on Thursday night was in Carolina where we had the Bengals defeating the Panthers by a final of 24-13. As expected, or at least as I expected, Cam Newton couldn't throw the ball. He went a measly 6-19 with a mere 75 yards, but there was a good part of his performance: his athletic ability on the ground. He scrambled for 49 yards as well as the Panthers only TD of the game. But the away team was much more impressive. Cedric Benson was fed the ball 16 times and he seemed to do well with it as he rushed for 68 yards and a TD. Bernard Scott got involved too, going six for 63 and a TD. Then in the air, Dalton had a much better game, including a 40 yard pass that went to rookie AJ Green for a TD. Obviously I liked to see Andy Dalton bounce back from his bad performance last week; it shows that Simpson, Benson, and Green can prevail with Dalton under center. I also saw my sleeper tight end Gresham getting five targets, as well as four receptions and 49 yards. Carolina looked pure ugly if you ask me. Newton is not going to lead this team to anything special if he can't figure out away to be more of a pocket passer. Not looking like a bright future for the Panthers.

Speaking of bright futures, you have the "Dream Team" Philadelphia Eagles. They have looked absolutely awful this far into the preseason, and Thursday night was no better. Vick is not getting the time to throw the ball and he is getting knocked down way too much. It is just a matter of time before a hard hit injures him and sidelines him for the entire season. Eagles are going to have to solve this offensive line problem if they want to get anywhere and it looks really bad right now. But let's move on to fantasy value of players. McCoy had himself a nice game in the passing game (Vick had to dump it off all night because he was getting flushed out of the pocket so much) but he had a terrible game on the ground. He went 6 for 12 on the ground while his teammate Ronnie Brown went 6 for 41 with a very nice 13 yard touchdown.  McCoy had nine targets in the air, three times more than anyone else in the Eagles receiving corps if you would like to take note of that for a PPR league. But on the Browns side of the ball, Colt McCoy had his first ugly game of the preseason. He went 9/18 with one interception and a 41.2 quarterback rating. Included in there was my very deep sleeper who grabbed three catches on four targets for 23 yards, Brian Robiskie. In my opinion that is a big step for Robiskie, and it says that McCoy wants to throw the ball to this guy and I have a lot of faith in him this year, even more than Josh Cribbs (as seen in my rankings).


The final game of the night was on ESPN and it was the Ravens taking on the Redskins. The one thing that really stuck to me in this game was Ray Rice getting some carries at the goaline. In the second quarter after getting stuffed at the one yard line, he ran one in from two yards out. Obviously this was something that a lot of fantasy owners are worried about, but I think it becomes less of a concern with this game under his belt. Granted, one good game can not convince most fantasy owners, and I realize that, but for me I feel like I can trust him more after this game. Enough of Ray Rice, I can't forget about my bromance with Anquan Boldin, who also had a good game. Boldin went 5 for 73 with a TD catch in the third quarter; that really impresses me. Lee Evans also had himself a nice game, 3 for 60 with a TD. I think Evans only helps Boldin, as I have pointed out before in my precious posts. Evans will take a safety off the top and leave breathing room for Boldin unlike last year where you had Mason playing opposite Boldin, and two receivers with the same skill set cannot play opposite of each other. I also really liked what I saw from Tyrod Taylor, the Ravens rookie backup quarterback. He seemed to play just like a younger Michael Vick. He knew when to throw and stay in the pocket but also knew when to tuck and run. I think we will see him be successful one day in the NFL. But on the other side of the field, Redskins had some really nice looking possessions too. John Beck still looks like the better QB for the Redskins, and pretty obviously to me. Of course, I am not seeing the practices, but in games in just seems like Beck is going to lead this team better. Hightower, a guy that is also climbing up my rankings, went 9 for 56, and his second game with a run over 30 yards.

That finishes up the recap for this Thursday. Look for my rankings on Saturday. But until then you can follow me on Twitter @TheFFAddict or feel free to email me, cshardy@att.net. Thanks for reading!

Just a little side note here: Next week I will do over-valued and under-valued players all week at every position as well as the news, so look for that.

August 24, 2011

Wednesday, August 24th, 2011 NFL Fantasy Football Wrap-Up

Today was a busy (but certainly not hectic) day in the NFL, from Kerry Collins to Orlando Scandrick, I'm going to wrap it all up and put into a fantasy football owner's perspective for you. Furthermore, let's look at the biggest moves as this Hump Day comes to an end.

Let's start off with Peyton Manning injury saga. And let me start by saying, unless you live under a rock, you probably know that Peyton Manning had neck surgery in the offseason. With him being a question mark for week one, the Colts went out and signed Kerry Collins out of retirement. Now this flashes obvious signs that Manning may not be ready for week one, and possibly even more. It all depends how the nerve in the neck repairs, there is really no timeline for that kind of injury.

Now before we move on through this saga, we need to get one thing straight; even if Peyton Manning does come back week one he probably won't be ready to hit an NFL field. He could be out of shape, and out of sync. In fantasy drafts, he is usually going around the third and fourth rounds. I think this is a ridiculous place to draft him. I mean he has all of the weapons around him, including his favorite target Dallas Clark (fresh off a season-ending wrist injury), but if they guy hasn't played football in months I would rather take guys like Phillip  Rivers (who often goes later than Manning) who has Vincent Jackson back for the entire season. Or maybe even Tony Romo who is a fantasy star when he is healthy (majority of the time he is). I wouldn't take Manning until the late fifth round, where, in most drafts, he is already gone

Now after that you have to ask yourself,"Do I downgrade all of my Colts players in my rankings?" And the answer is no. Not yet atleast. I mean, until the season gets closer you aren't going to know if this nerve is going to heal in time or not. Granted, Manning is the Colts and they look pitiful in the preseason without him, but downgrading Colts players is ridiculous at this point because Manning still has that chance that he could play week one. Like I said before, even if Manning is back, I wouldn't expect him to have a stellar performance. Eventually (probably just days from the season) we will have more news on Manning to judge all of the Colts fantasy players. For now, if you want my opinion, I would just stay put and wait it out. Maybe try trading Colts players if you have already drafted. But look, the fantasy value of these players will not decrease that drastically. After all, his last name is still Manning.

Enough Manning Injury Saga talk: let's move on to Saints offensive guard Carl Nicks who injured his knee in Saturday night's game. It first appeared Nicks had a knee contusion and it continued bothering Nicks on Monday.  The Saints decided to take him in for further tests but the tests came back negative. Coach Sean Payton said he will be sidelined for a week but he should be back in practice next week. This will obviously hurt the Saint's run game if this injury continues into the regular season, although that is highly unlikely.

Another Saint is experiencing some difficulty with his knee, but this time it was no offensive lineman this time, it was rookie running back Mark Ingram. He had some swelling in his knee on Tuesday. Payton said Ingram should be sidelined for a couple days, meaning that it shouldn't cause problems in the future for the young back.

And my last news story, which I like to call my "Not so Important Fantasy News but Still Big News" segment, is Cowboys corner Orlando Scandrick getting a five-year, worth $27 million including $10 million guaranteed. Rob Ryan is said to have love the guy, and the Cowboys think they have a top three Nickel formation corner in the NFL. Newman is always injured so you can expect to see Scandrick a lot this year with the love from management and the oppotunities he will get.

Thanks for reading. Just for the heads up: I will be doing a daily recap, with all of the biggest NFL news. There will be one one Monday, Tuesdays, Wednesdays, Thursdays, and Sundays. Every Friday or Saturday I will repost my rankings. So check back every night to get your fix of fantasy news. You can also find me on Twitter, just tweet any fantasy questions you have to @TheFFAddict, and I will get back to you as quickly as possible.

August 23, 2011

Week 2 Preseason News and Notes


Hello Fantasy Swashbucklers,
In a busy week of preseason games, injuries, and moves on the depth chart, I am going to analyze the things that may affect your draft. Last week we ran over injuries and important moves in the offseason. Along with all of that will be some of my own insights. So let’s get started with some injury news.
In the preseason game against the Packers, Cardinals rookie running back Ryan Williams went down with an ankle injury and was carted off the field. It was later found that he ruptured his patellar tendon and will need surgery. This really increases the value of Beanie Wells. He now possibly could become an every down back, and he will certainly be the lead man in Arizona. I already liked the guy if he got the time on the field, but now he will get the carries to become a top 20 back. But we have not seen that potential shine yet. I think this could, and will, be the year for Beanie.
Earlier in the week, we found some much anticipated news about Eagles receiver Jeremy Maclin. After weeks of testing for just about every sickness possible, including Lukemia, it was found that his lymph nodes were “enlarged and hot”—a major sign of Lymphoma and he should be returning to the practice field in the next couple days. Now this doesn’t mean he is back where he should be in fantasy rankings. Everyone needs to wait and see him in practice and preseason to evaluate him and see if he is healthy and back to football form. If he is, feel free to rank him back to where he usually would be.
In other big news not concerning an injury, Titans Chris Johnson is holding out for a new contract from the Titans, as many of you may already know. "We're willing to make him the highest paid running back in the history of the NFL,” said the Titans GM Mike Reinfeldt two weeks ago,”That's kind of where we are.” Chris Johnson later went on to say that negotiations had gone nowhere, and they were still on square one. Now, the GM has yet to give CJ an offer, and the team is not even going to bother giving Johnson a concrete offer right now. If I were a fantasy owner, I would be extremely scared using a first round pick on this guy, none-the-less using a top five pick on him.
Now on to who has caught my eye in preseason. First off let’s start with a Cowboy, me being a Cowboys fan and all. I am beginning to become very interested in the all around talent of Felix Jones. He looks like a stud right now. His vision on the field is great and he is finding the holes. Rather it be his offensive line creating gaping holes or Jones finding them, it doesn’t matter to me. Either way this guy is climbing up on my rankings.
Another guy that may not of caught my eye this preseason, but one that did at the end of last season is Brian Robiskie. Granted, Cribbs is having the better preseason, but Robiskie is still the #1 wide-out on that team and if he can get the targets he is one of those deep sleepers I really like with his Qb Colt McCoy firing him passes.
Last but certainly not least is the quarterback position where this week I’m going to throw out the name Matthew Stafford. I know a lot of people, like this guy, but I have been one of them, for years now. His shoulder should not be a problem, and he is not considered injury prone. However, he has been injured in both of his first two seasons in the NFL, so it is a risk. But it is a risk I am willing to take in drafts if you could get him as a back-up QB. He has the receiving corps and the talent to become a top ten quarterback this year, mark my words.
Thanks for reading. I will be back next week with more sleepers, including a tight end that a lot of people are forgetting about. Have a good week!

August 15, 2011

Why Chris Johnson is not a top 3 pick

Alot of people don't like Adrian Peterson. he's on the decline, he has a bad quarterback situation, just a couple of things people say. But he is as consistent as it gets when it comes to fantasy football. Some don't like Jamaal Charles. He shares carries, he fumbles the ball a lot when Chris Johnson fumbled just as much as him in 2010. Arian Foster is even criticized as a one year wonder.

But what do these guys have that Chris Johnson don't? Consistency. The ultimate key to fantasy football.

Peterson dipped under seven points only one time the entire season when he was active (he sat out one game). Arian Foster? Also only two times. Jamaal Charles? Twice. All of these guys beat "CJ1.3K" in fantasy points. How many games did Chris Johnson drop under seven points last year? Six. Three times more than any of the other top four running backs.

Do you really want your first round pick to be that inconsistent? To go along with that, Chris Johnson may be a hold out despite Titans GM Mike Reinfeldt stating he will be the highest paid RB in the league if he reports to camp. That's another risk I don't want to take on this guy with my first round pick.

You don't want to base it all on inconsistency? Well Foster, Peterson, and Charles all had more overall fantasy points last year then Chris Johnson. Although sharing with Thomas Jones, Charles still finished with 100 more rushing yards than Chris Johnson, who had no one to compete with in the Titans backfield. To go with the Charles argument, he had 45 receptions (one more than Chris Johnson) and averaged over 10 yards per reception, while Chris Johnson averaged 5.6 yards. Not to mention that Arian Foster beat both of these guys by over 20 receptions finishing the season with 66, averaging over nine yards on each reception.

One big thing that was going for Charles last year was his incredible, near record breaking, 6.4 yards per carry. Adrian Peterson averaged 4.6 YPC, and Foster averaged 4.9. Chris Johnson averaged his worst of his career, a measly 4.3 YPC.

Then my last piece of evidence is the ugly quarterback situation in Tennessee. Matt Hasselbeck is the starting QB in Tennessee after an off-season acquisition. It is a better situation for Johnson than last year, but not nearly good enough. But if defenses aren't already putting 8 in the box against Chris Johnson, then they will be if Hasselbeck goes down and Jake Locker is under center.  Once rookie quarterback Jake Locker is in the game, defenses will absolutely come for Johnson by putting eight in the box all the time. Let's look at the one game that Rusty Smith started last year. Chris Johnson had his worst game of the year going seven for five with a big goose egg for fantasy points.

I know you can argue against the situation in Minnesota too. I do think that could cause Adrian Peterson trouble too, but if he can stay healthy then he is an all-purpose back and can get through a tough QB situation, as you have seen in the past.

All of this is why you, as an educated fantasy scholar, should not draft Chris Johnson with a top three pick in the draft.






August 14, 2011

My First 2011 Fantasy Football Rankings

After waiting a long 132 days, and as many of you already know, the NFL lockout came to an end. What did this really mean for football fans across the globe? It meant an absolutely crazy free agency period. Now that free agents have been signed, many players have been traded, it's time to get to my true fantasy football rankings for this year.

Rankings based on a Non-PPR, standard ESPN.com league.
QBs
1. Mike Vick
2. Aaron Rodgers
3. Tom Brady
4. Drew Brees
5. Philip Rivers
6. Peyton Manning
7. Tony Romo
8. Matt Ryan
9. Matt Schaub
10. Josh Freeman
11. Ben Roethlisberger
12. Kyle Orton
13. Matt Stafford
14. Joe Flacco
15. Eli Manning
16. Jay Cutler
17. Matt Cassel
18. Sam Bradford
19. Kevin Kolb
20. Donovan McNabb
21. David Garrard
22. Colt McCoy
23. Mark Sanchez
24. Andy Dalton
25. Matt Hasselbeck

RBs
1. Adrian Peterson
2. Jamaal Charles
3. Arian Foster
4. Chris Johnson
5. Lesean McCoy
6. Ray Rice
7. Frank Gore
8. Maurice Jones-Drew
9. Rashard Mendenhall
10. Matt Forte
11. Darren McFadden
12. Michael Turner
13.Knowshow Moreno
14. Peyton Hillis
15. Steven Jackson
16. Ahmad Bradshaw
17. LeGarrette Blount
18. DeAngelo Williams
19. Jahvid Best
20. Cedric Benson
21. Felix Jones
22. Shonn Greene
23. Fred Jackson
24. Mark Ingram
25. Johnathan Stewart
26. Ryan Matthews
27. BenJarvus Green-Ellis
28. Joseph Addai
29. James Starks
30. Reggie Bush
31. Ryan Grant
32. Marshawn Lynch
33. Daniel Thomas
34. Ryan Torain
35. Beanie Wells
36. Ryan Williams
37. Mike Tolbert
38. Pierre Thomas
39. CJ Spiller
40. Darren Sproles
41. Michael Bush
42. Ladanian Tomlinson
43. Rashad Jennings
44. Montario Hardesty
45. Justin Forsett
46. Brandon Jacobs
47. Ben Tate
48. Tim Hightower
49. Demarco Murray
50. Danny Woodhead
51. Willis McGahee
52. Thomas jones
53. Roy Helu
54. Bernard Scott
55. Jerome Harrison
56. Donald Brown
57. Ronnie Brown
58. Marion Barber
59. Tashard Choice
60. Ricky Williams
61. Mike Goodson
62. Cadillac Williams
63. Tody Gerhart
64. Jason Snelling

WRs
1. Andre Johnson
2. Calvin Johnson
3. RoddyWhite
4. Larry Fitzgerald
5. Hakeem Nicks
6. Greg Jennings
7. Mike Wallace
8. Reggie Wayne
9. Vincent Jackson
10. Miles Austin
11. Brandon Lloyd
12. Desean Jackson
13. Dwayne Bowe
14. Santonio Holmes
15. Dez Bryant
16. Mike Williams
17. Marques Colston
18. Steve Johnson
19. Anquan Boldin
20. Percy Harvin
21. Wes Welker
22. Jeremy Maclin
23. Kenny Britt
24. Mario Manningham
25. Brandon Marshall
26. Sidney Rice
27. Pierre Garcon
28. Steve Smith (Car)
29. Julio Jones
30. Mike Sims-Walker
31. AJ Green
32. Jerome Simpson
33. Roy Williams (Chi)
34. Chad Ochocinco
35. Johnny Knox
36. Emmanuel Sanders
37. Macom Floyd
38. Austin Collie
39. Mike Thomas
40. Santana Moss
41. Lance Moore
42. Mike Thomas
43. Michael Crabtree
44. Jordy Nelson
45. Louis Murphy
46. Steve Breaston
47. Braylon Edwards
48. James Jones
49. Lee Evans
50. Jacoby Ford
51. Anthony Armstrong
52. Robert Meachem
53. Josh Cribbs
54. Mike Williams (Sea)
55. Josh Morgan
56. Arrelious Benn
57. Jordan Shipley
58. Titus Young
59. Plaxico Burress
60. Jacoby Jones
61. Demaryius Thomas
62. Nate Washington
63. Eddie Royal
64. Randy Moss

TEs
1. Antonio Gates
2. Jason Witten
3. Dallas Clark
4. Vernon Davis
5. Jermichael Finley
6. Owen Daniels
7. Jimmy Graham
8. Marcedes Lewis
9. Chris Cooley
10. Zach Miller
11. Brandon Pettigrew
12. Greg Olsen
13. Dustin Keller
14. Kellen Winslow
15. Rob Gronkowski
16. Jermaine Gresham
17. Tony Moeaki
18. Jared Cook
19. Todd Heap
20. Aaron Hernandez

D/ST
1. Steelers
2. Packers
3. Eagles
4. Jets
5. Ravens
6. Bears
7. Falcons
8. Patriots
9. Giants
10. Chargers
11. Saints
12. Lions
13. Chiefs
14. Bucs
15. 49ers
16. Cardinals
17. Rams
18. Dolphins
19. Browns
20. Vikings

Thanks for reading. After the preseason I will post a new set of rankings. Leave questions and comments down below. Thanks!