By: Christian Hardy
After all of the number crunching, the matchup hunting, and trend-setting stat
finding in the last few days and you've got an all new Bank/Tank. I realize that last week my tanks were really, well, awful; but on the
flipside, my banks were near perfect. But with all of that, it's time to get
this show on the road. First up: quarterbacks
Quarterbacks
Bank
Cam Newton vs Jacksonville - While this is obvious for some, others may be
questioning him. Can he do it again? I think he can. Just take a look at my
rankings. I ranked the rookie at number two only behind NFL leading passer Tom
Brady. Not only has he attempted the fourth most passes in the league, but he
also has a great matchup. If Cam Newton throws the pigskin 40 times or more
this week, he is going to pick this Jaguars defense apart.
Matt Ryan @ Tampa Bay – This one is also a pretty easy one. The Buccaneers pass
defense has been torched in the first two weeks against Matthew Stafford and
Donavan McNabb. Matthew Stafford completely went off and McNabb threw for over
220 yards in the week after he threw for just 39. With the offense at its peak,
Ryan is going to air it out this week, and he is going to air it out often. Make sure this guy is in your lineup if
you have him.
Extra: Matt Hasselbeck
Tank
Eli Manning @ Philadelphia – Not only did Manning look god awful on Monday
Night Football, but now he is actually playing a respectable pass defense. With
the way he has played in these first two days, I would recommend the Giants
keep it on the ground against the Eagles. I know he was without his receivers
last game, but even with his main guys (most of the first half) he was
extremely inaccurate. Don’t play Manning this week, even if both of his parents are there to watch him.
Josh Freeman vs Atlanta – With only two touchdowns (and two interceptions)
in the first two games, I am really not feeling Josh Freeman. I was high on him
very early in the preseason, but as it went on, his stock continued to fall.
Blount was much more involved in the offense last week and it may go up even
more this week. If Freeman isn’t hitting his guys in the redzone then he isn’t
going to get you the easy fantasy points. Simple as that. Sit Freeman this
week.
Running Backs
Bank
BenJarvus Green-Ellis @ Buffalo – We all know the Buffalo run defense is
bad. That is a fact. But why is Green-Ellis going to get more carries this
week? The Aaron Hernandez injury. With Hernandez gone from that offense I think we
are going to see the Patriots pound the ball more, and who does that best? THE
Lawfirm. If he can get the carries, he could put on a clinic against the weak
Bills rush defense.
Mark Ingram vs Houston – Ingram hasn’t looked great in his first two starts and
I acknowledge that. But Ingram is still getting the majority of the Saints’ goal
line touches, and it's only a matter of time before he finds the end zone. The
Texans haven’t given up a rushing touchdown yet, but they had easy matchups in
both weeks one and two (Colts and Dolphins). That’s why, even though many will
be reluctant about it, Mark Ingram is a viable flex play this week, and I would
put money on him recording a tally in the TD column.
Extra: Darren Sproles, Ben Tate
Tank
Beanie Wells @ Seattle – Yeah, yeah I hear ya. Wells is averaging 5.7 yards per carry blah, blah, blah. Really though, who was he playing? You look at the matchups and you see Carolina and
Washington. Both teams aren’t really known as run stoppers. Seattle, his opponent this week and division rival, has allowed
3 TDs which does give Wells a good chance to find the end zone, but I think
Kolb is going to exploit their weakness: the passing game. Look for the
Cardinals to air it out, not run the ball on Sunday.
DeAngelo Williams vs Jacksonville – This one is pretty easy. DWill has
gotten just 17 carries in the last two games combined (only five against Green
Bay last week) and he isn’t all that involved in the pass game either. With
Newton under center this team is going to throw, throw, and throw some more. Until
Deangelo Williams becomes a part of this offense again, he is going to make a
real warm spot on the pine.
Extra: Reggie Bush
Wide Receivers
Bank
Dez Bryant vs Washington – Did you see what Miles Austin did to San
Francisco’s defense last week as the only WR that Romo could trust? That could
be Dez Bryant this week. Granted, he also has Witten who is going to steal a
few looks here and there. But Bryant was Romo’s redzone favorite against the Jets
in week one and why not again? You have to start Dez this week. I am expecting
a huge game.
Eric Decker @ Tennessee- Last week Decker stole the show. Some owners popped
him into their line up just minutes before the game and boy did it pay off. With
Eddie Royal out for a couple weeks, Decker steps up into an obvious WR2 slot. Even
with Lloyd back, who does Tennessee have at corner after Cortland Finnegan that
can cover this guy? No one? That’s what I thought. Decker might not duplicate
last week, but I think he might come close to it.
Extra: Kevin Ogletree, AJ Green, Brandon LaFell
Tank
Reggie Wayne vs Pittsburgh – Yeah, the Steelers have a good defense. But
what is the real reason I hate Wayne this week? Kerry Collins. Collins isn’t going to have time to
find Wayne downfield this week (has he ever had that time?). Not only that, but
the Steelers have yet to allow a receiver to go over 13 fantasy points this
season and that was Anquan Boldin with Joe Flacco under center. This is Kerry
Collins, and I don’t want Wayne in my lineup this week. Don;'t let it Wayne on your day.
Dwayne Bowe @ San Diego – I missed (not badly, but I missed) on Dwayne last week.
He decided to actually be relevant in week two against the Lions. But this is week three, and the Chiefs' offense
is going to be so awful without Jamaal Charles and Tony Moeaki, I’m not sure I
would ever start Bowe again. What are his chances of finding the endzone? I’m legitimately
sure that Bowe is going to be hunting for the endzone, not finding it. Keep him
on your bench against a good pass defense.
Extra: Hakeem Nicks, Mike Williams (Tampa)
Tight Ends
Bank
Rob Gronkowski @ Buffalo – Another benefit of Aaron Hernandez being out (one
of the many things I hate to say: someone’s gain from another’s injury) is Rob
Gronkowski. He is going to get targets added to his already huge abundance of them.
Tom Brady is loving his TEs, why should that stop this week?
Others: Jermichael Finley
Tank
Dallas Clark vs Pittsburgh – I really wanted to put Antonio Gates in this
spot but I’m sure he will rebound in week three. Anyways, on with Dallas Clark.
Pittsburgh allowed Ed Dickson to have a worthy performance in week one, but who
didn’t that week for Baltimore? It was a disaster for the Steelers. With Collins under the
heat of the Steelers blitz and more and more passes going away from Clark, I
think you can find a better option this week.
Extra: Brandon Pettigrew
Well, that’s all for me. My next article will be out sometime on Saturday
and it will be my game picks including my start/sit. I hope you guys enjoyed
this one. If you have any fantasy football questions, I am always on Twitter and I love reader's questions or
you can email me and I will get back to you with a quality answer (well, most
of the time..). I’ll talk to you on Saturday!
September 23, 2011
September 19, 2011
Let Them Preach! Week 2 Edition
By: Christian Hardy
Every year the league seems to change so much, and this year the game has changed more than I have ever remembered. Maybe EA Sports Madden 12 was wrong, teams actually can throw the ball, because in the first two weeks of the NFL season, quarterbacks have dominated the game. Tom Brady, Tony Romo, Cam Newton, and Matthew Stafford have gone absolutely berserk in the two weeks that we have been back to football. But what did I learn in each matchup individually? That's what this is about: what I learned. So sit back, and enjoy.
Oakland Raiders @ Buffalo Bills
1. Ryan Fitzpatrick is one of those quarterbacks who is going to throw the ball a ton.
2. CJ Spiller is going to be non-effective this year, but Fred Jackson looks like he is going to be an utter stud, especially in a PPR.
3. Michael Bush is going to vulture some of Darren McFadden’s touchdowns, but at the same time, McFadden is going to be a huge part of the offense.
4. If Denarius Moore does not get the WR2 spot from Darius Heyward-Bey then the Raiders don’t know how to run a team. The guy is tremendously gifted.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Philadelphia Eagles
1. Matthew Stafford is going to become elite if he can stay healthy.
2. Jahvid Best is the newest workhorse.
3. Chiefs are officially in the “Andrew Luck Sweepstakes”
Baltimore Ravens @ Tennessee Titans
1. Kenny Britt is a tremendous playmaker, and Nate Washington is a great flex in a PPR league.
2. Matt Hasselbeck is going to throw the ball a lot.
3. Chris Johnson is a major buy low right now.
Cleveland Browns @ Indianapolis Colts
1. Dallas Clark’s value has dropped tremendously, as has Reggie Wayne’s. I’m calling it “The Collins Factor”
2. Delone Carter will get as many carries as Addai on a lot of weeks, but how many carries will they get? Also, I learned that Carter is going to get all of the carries in the red zone, which means touchdowns galore (but how often can the Colts get to the redzone?).
3. Greg Little’s value is going to increase week by week and is a great dynasty league pickup.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Minnesota Vikings
1. I was way off on Blount, and I just wanted to say sorry to all that took my advice. That was one of my worst picks ever.
2. Arrelious Benn and Preston Parker are both going to be relevant this year.
3. Adrian Peterson is an absolute monster. There is no other way to put it. He is simply a beast.
Chicago Bears @ New Orleans Saints
1. Matt Forte is the Bears offense. Without Matt Forte, Jay Cutler would look like Kerry Collins, and that is the worst insult I could think of.
2. Darren Sproles is a huge part of the Saints offense, and he should find a spot on everyone’s roster.
3. Jimmy Graham is now a must start every week. He did not have an enormous game this week, but good enough to where you must start him.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ New York Jets
1. Mike Thomas is the top wide receiver for the Jaguars. Ten targets is plenty enough to convince this man.
2. Shonn Greene may have the role that many fantasy owners though that he had: Greene had ten more carries than Ladanian Tomlinson as well as one more catch than Tomlinson.
3. I learned that Dustin Keller isn’t as irrelevant as people think. He will probably find a spot in my top ten tight ends next week.
Seattle Seahawks @ Pittsburgh Steelers
1. Mike Wallace isn’t just a deep ball receiver; he had eight catches on Sunday.
2. Antonio Brown and Emmanuel Sanders are going to continue to bring each other down.
3. The Seattle Seahawks are also in the “Andrew Luck Sweepstakes”
Arizona Cardinals @ Washington Redskins
1. Kevin Kolb and Larry Fitzgerald are going to have a great time together in Arizona.
2. Fred Davis can produce, even with Cooley stealing looks.
3. Chris Beanie Wells no longer looks like the running back that averaged three yards per carry. He looks like a whole new running back.
Green Bay Packers @ Carolina Panthers
1. This Cam Newton guy is for real.
2. James Starks is officially the number one running back for the Packers. He ran better and just flat out looked better than Ryan Grant.
3. Steve Smith is Cam Newton’s favorite target no doubt, confirming one of the things I learned last week.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Denver Broncos
1. I whiffed on my Cedric Benson prediction really bad. I still believe in Benson though. But to even it out, I was right about Simpson. I liked him this week.
2. Andy Dalton is almost as legit as Cam Newton, and that’s a major compliment.
3. Eric Decker will/should move into the WR2 hole for the Broncos.
Houston Texans @ Miami Dolphins
1. Arian Foster needs a week to sit out and regain strength. If he doesn’t get rest it will hurt fantasy owners.
2. You know that 70/30 split that Bush was supposed to be favored in? Yeah, that never happened. Bush got only seven touches and Thomas got 19. But Thomas did a lot with those carries. I’m not sure how this will work in the future, but I am anxious to see.
3. Chad Henne is not the Chad Henne we saw in week one.
Dallas Cowboys @ San Francisco 49ers
1. The Cowboys offensive line is going to hurt Felix Jones all year long.
2. Tony Romo is going to take big hits all year, so get a good backup quarterback.
3. Alex Smith and Vernon Davis have nothing together this year. I can’t figure out if it is play calling or just bad quarterbacking by Alex Smith. I saw Davis open multiple times against the Cowboys.
4. Miles Austin is a top ten wide receiver in the league, in terms of skill.
San Diego Chargers @ New England Patriots
1. I was wrong on Vincent Jackson, but I still don’t see him having a great year. I still will have to rank him with this in mind though.
2. A Vincent Jackson excellent game equals nada for Antonio Gates, but this shouldn’t become a trend for the Chargers.
3. Both TEs are going to be very productive in the Patriots offense.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Atlanta Falcons
1. Jeremy Maclin is going to go through his up and downs all year, just like he has in the past.
2. Desean Jackson can’t repeat what he did against the Giants in 2010.
3. Michael Turner looks like a complete monster in these first two games.
4. Tony Gonzalez isn’t too old to find the end zone every so often.
St.Louis Rams @ New York Giants
1. Sam Bradford just gets better and better every game.
2. Mike Sims-Walker looks to be the top receiver for the Rams, but this could be a different story next week. Bradford loves spreading the ball around.
3. Brandon Jacobs is going to vulture fantasy points for Bradshaw and there is no doubt about that. He is stealing carries, touches, and touchdowns. The coaching staff trusts Jacobs more than Bradshaw and they make that apparent quite often.
Thanks for checking out everything I learned in week two of the NFL season. Like I said before, it’s going to be a much different season than last year, and I have already learned so much in just two weeks of play. As always, you can ask me all your questions on Twitter or you can email me. My rankings will be posted on Wednesday, and Thursday will be tank/bank for week three. I look forward to seeing you then.
Every year the league seems to change so much, and this year the game has changed more than I have ever remembered. Maybe EA Sports Madden 12 was wrong, teams actually can throw the ball, because in the first two weeks of the NFL season, quarterbacks have dominated the game. Tom Brady, Tony Romo, Cam Newton, and Matthew Stafford have gone absolutely berserk in the two weeks that we have been back to football. But what did I learn in each matchup individually? That's what this is about: what I learned. So sit back, and enjoy.
Oakland Raiders @ Buffalo Bills
1. Ryan Fitzpatrick is one of those quarterbacks who is going to throw the ball a ton.
2. CJ Spiller is going to be non-effective this year, but Fred Jackson looks like he is going to be an utter stud, especially in a PPR.
3. Michael Bush is going to vulture some of Darren McFadden’s touchdowns, but at the same time, McFadden is going to be a huge part of the offense.
4. If Denarius Moore does not get the WR2 spot from Darius Heyward-Bey then the Raiders don’t know how to run a team. The guy is tremendously gifted.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Philadelphia Eagles
1. Matthew Stafford is going to become elite if he can stay healthy.
2. Jahvid Best is the newest workhorse.
3. Chiefs are officially in the “Andrew Luck Sweepstakes”
Baltimore Ravens @ Tennessee Titans
1. Kenny Britt is a tremendous playmaker, and Nate Washington is a great flex in a PPR league.
2. Matt Hasselbeck is going to throw the ball a lot.
3. Chris Johnson is a major buy low right now.
Cleveland Browns @ Indianapolis Colts
1. Dallas Clark’s value has dropped tremendously, as has Reggie Wayne’s. I’m calling it “The Collins Factor”
2. Delone Carter will get as many carries as Addai on a lot of weeks, but how many carries will they get? Also, I learned that Carter is going to get all of the carries in the red zone, which means touchdowns galore (but how often can the Colts get to the redzone?).
3. Greg Little’s value is going to increase week by week and is a great dynasty league pickup.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Minnesota Vikings
1. I was way off on Blount, and I just wanted to say sorry to all that took my advice. That was one of my worst picks ever.
2. Arrelious Benn and Preston Parker are both going to be relevant this year.
3. Adrian Peterson is an absolute monster. There is no other way to put it. He is simply a beast.
Chicago Bears @ New Orleans Saints
1. Matt Forte is the Bears offense. Without Matt Forte, Jay Cutler would look like Kerry Collins, and that is the worst insult I could think of.
2. Darren Sproles is a huge part of the Saints offense, and he should find a spot on everyone’s roster.
3. Jimmy Graham is now a must start every week. He did not have an enormous game this week, but good enough to where you must start him.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ New York Jets
1. Mike Thomas is the top wide receiver for the Jaguars. Ten targets is plenty enough to convince this man.
2. Shonn Greene may have the role that many fantasy owners though that he had: Greene had ten more carries than Ladanian Tomlinson as well as one more catch than Tomlinson.
3. I learned that Dustin Keller isn’t as irrelevant as people think. He will probably find a spot in my top ten tight ends next week.
Seattle Seahawks @ Pittsburgh Steelers
1. Mike Wallace isn’t just a deep ball receiver; he had eight catches on Sunday.
2. Antonio Brown and Emmanuel Sanders are going to continue to bring each other down.
3. The Seattle Seahawks are also in the “Andrew Luck Sweepstakes”
Arizona Cardinals @ Washington Redskins
1. Kevin Kolb and Larry Fitzgerald are going to have a great time together in Arizona.
2. Fred Davis can produce, even with Cooley stealing looks.
3. Chris Beanie Wells no longer looks like the running back that averaged three yards per carry. He looks like a whole new running back.
Green Bay Packers @ Carolina Panthers
1. This Cam Newton guy is for real.
2. James Starks is officially the number one running back for the Packers. He ran better and just flat out looked better than Ryan Grant.
3. Steve Smith is Cam Newton’s favorite target no doubt, confirming one of the things I learned last week.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Denver Broncos
1. I whiffed on my Cedric Benson prediction really bad. I still believe in Benson though. But to even it out, I was right about Simpson. I liked him this week.
2. Andy Dalton is almost as legit as Cam Newton, and that’s a major compliment.
3. Eric Decker will/should move into the WR2 hole for the Broncos.
Houston Texans @ Miami Dolphins
1. Arian Foster needs a week to sit out and regain strength. If he doesn’t get rest it will hurt fantasy owners.
2. You know that 70/30 split that Bush was supposed to be favored in? Yeah, that never happened. Bush got only seven touches and Thomas got 19. But Thomas did a lot with those carries. I’m not sure how this will work in the future, but I am anxious to see.
3. Chad Henne is not the Chad Henne we saw in week one.
Dallas Cowboys @ San Francisco 49ers
1. The Cowboys offensive line is going to hurt Felix Jones all year long.
2. Tony Romo is going to take big hits all year, so get a good backup quarterback.
3. Alex Smith and Vernon Davis have nothing together this year. I can’t figure out if it is play calling or just bad quarterbacking by Alex Smith. I saw Davis open multiple times against the Cowboys.
4. Miles Austin is a top ten wide receiver in the league, in terms of skill.
San Diego Chargers @ New England Patriots
1. I was wrong on Vincent Jackson, but I still don’t see him having a great year. I still will have to rank him with this in mind though.
2. A Vincent Jackson excellent game equals nada for Antonio Gates, but this shouldn’t become a trend for the Chargers.
3. Both TEs are going to be very productive in the Patriots offense.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Atlanta Falcons
1. Jeremy Maclin is going to go through his up and downs all year, just like he has in the past.
2. Desean Jackson can’t repeat what he did against the Giants in 2010.
3. Michael Turner looks like a complete monster in these first two games.
4. Tony Gonzalez isn’t too old to find the end zone every so often.
St.Louis Rams @ New York Giants
1. Sam Bradford just gets better and better every game.
2. Mike Sims-Walker looks to be the top receiver for the Rams, but this could be a different story next week. Bradford loves spreading the ball around.
3. Brandon Jacobs is going to vulture fantasy points for Bradshaw and there is no doubt about that. He is stealing carries, touches, and touchdowns. The coaching staff trusts Jacobs more than Bradshaw and they make that apparent quite often.
Thanks for checking out everything I learned in week two of the NFL season. Like I said before, it’s going to be a much different season than last year, and I have already learned so much in just two weeks of play. As always, you can ask me all your questions on Twitter or you can email me. My rankings will be posted on Wednesday, and Thursday will be tank/bank for week three. I look forward to seeing you then.
September 17, 2011
Week Two NFL Game Picks
Now that my tank and bank is out, it is on to my week two picks. This week
is also going to be a little different. I'm going to give you the match up,
time and channel, as well as the line and over/under. Then I will make my pick
with the score. Following that will be my start/sits for each game. I will also
point out my eliminator pick of the week and the game of the week which is
going to be the game I am looking forward to the most (excluding the Cowboys
game).
Oakland Raiders @ Buffalo Bills
1:00 PM EST - CBS
Line: Bills by 3
Over/Under: 42
Bills 30, Raiders 17
Start:
QB: Ryan Fitzpatrick
RB: Fred Jackson, Darren McFadden
WR: Steve Johnson
TE: None
Sit:
QB: Jason Campbell
RB: Michael Bush, CJ Spiller
WR: Jacoby Ford., Darius Heyward-Bey
TE: Scott Chandler (for now) and Kevin Boss
Kansas City Chiefs @ Detroit Lions
1:00 PM EST - CBS
Line: Lions -9
Over/Under: 45
Lions 34, Chiefs 20
Start:
QB: Matthew Stafford
RB: Jamaal Charles, Jahvid Best
WR: Calvin Johnson
TE: Brandon Pettigrew
Sit:
QB: Matt Cassel
RB: Thomas Jones
WR: Dwayne Bowe (unless team is injury ridden), Nate Burleson (maybe a deep flex)
TE: Tony Scheffler
Baltimore Ravens @ Tennessee Titans
1:00 PM EST - CBS
Line: Ravens -6
Over/Under: 38
Ravens 27, Titans 10
Start:
QB: Joe Flacco
RB: Ray Rice, Chris Johnson
WR: Kenny Britt, Anquan Boldin
TE: None
Sit:
QB: Matthew Hasselbeck
RB: Ricky Williams (unless in deep league or plagued with injury)
WR: Lee Evans, Nate Washington (Should be on a roster in a PPR)
TE: Ed Dickson (for now), Jared Cook
Chicago Bears @ New Orleans Saints
1:00PM EST - FOX
Line: Saints -6.5
Over/Under: 47.5
Bears 24, Saints 21 (OT)
Start:
QB: Drew Brees
RB: Matt Forte, Mark Ingram (low-end flex)
WR: Lance Moore (if he is going to play), if no Moore then Meachem is a go, Henderson (only if Moore is out)
TE: Jimmy Graham
Sit:
QB: Jay Cutler
RB: Pierre Thomas
WR: Roy Williams, Johnny Knox, Earl Bennett
TE: Matt Spaeth
Cleveland Browns @ Indianapolis Colts
1:00 PM EST - CBS
Line: Browns -2
Over/Under: 39.5
Browns 20, Colts 13
Start:
QB: None
RB: Peyton Hillis, Joseph Addai (low-end flex)
WR: Reggie Wayne
TE: Dallas Clark, Evan Moore (if desperate)
Sit:
QB: Colt McCoy, Kerry Collins
RB: Delone Carter (for now)
WR: Pierre Garcon, Austin Collie, all Browns WRs
TE: Ben Watson
Green Bay Packers @ Carolina Panthers
1:00 PM EST - FOX
Line: Packers -10
Over/Under: 45.4
Packers 34, Panthers 20
Start:
QB: Aaron Rodgers
RB: James Starks, DeAngelo Williams
WR: Greg Jennings, Steve Smith (flex), Jordy Nelson (nice flex in a PPR)
TE: Jermichael Finley
Sit:
QB: Cam Newton (for now)
RB: Johnathan Stewart, Ryan Grant
WR: James Jones
TE: Greg Olsen
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Minnesota Vikings
1:00 PM EST – FOX
Line: Vikings -3
Over/Under: 41.5
Buccaneers 24, Vikings 10
Start:
QB: Josh Freeman
RB: Legarrette Blount (sad to say, but he may be a deep flex this week), Adrian Peterson
WR: Percy Harvin, Mike Williams
TE: Kellen Winslow
Sit:
QB: Donavan McNabb
RB: None
WR: Arrelious Benn (a guy to keep your eye on), Michael Jenkins
TE: Visanthe Shiancoe
Jacksonville Jaguars @ New York Jets
1:00 PM EST – FOX
Line: Jets -9
Over/Under: 39
Jets 30, Jaguars 17
Starts:
QB: Mark Sanchez
RB: Shonn Greene (deep flex), Maurice Jones-Drew
WR: Santonio Holmes (if active), if not active then Plaxico Burress is a good option, Mike Thomas (PPR)
TE: None
Sit:
QB: Luke McCown
RB: Ladanian Tomlinson, Deji Karim
WR: None
TE: Marcedes Lewis, Dustin Keller
Arizona Cardinals @ Washington Redskins
1:00 PM EST – FOX
Line: Redskins -3.5
Over/Under: 44
Redskins 26, Cardinals 20
Start:
QB: Rex Grossman
RB: Tim Hightower, Beanie Wells
WR: Larry Fitzgerald, Santana Moss
TE: None
Sit:
QB: Kevin Kolb
RB: Roy Helu
WR: Jabar Gaffney (unless in deep league), Early Doucet (for now), Andre Roberts
TE: Todd Heap, Fred Davis, Chris Cooley
Seattle Seahawks @ Pittsburgh Steelers
1:00 PM EST – FOX
Line: Steelers -14
Over/Under: 40
Steelers 30, Seahawks 13
Start:
QB: Ben Roethlisberger
RB: Rashard Mendenhall
WR: Mike Williams (flex with Rice out), Mike Wallace, Hines Ward (PPR)
TE: None
Sit:
QB: Tavaris Jackson
RB: Marshawyn Lynch, Justin Forsett
WR: Emmanuel Sanders, Sidney Rice (out)
TE: Heath Miller, Zach Miller
Dallas Cowboys @ San Francsico 49ers
4:05 PM EST - FOX
Line: Cowboys -3
Over/Under: 42.5
Cowboys 34, 49ers 20
Start:
QB: Tony Romo
RB: Felix Jones, Frank Gore
WR: Miles Austin
TE: Jason Witten, Vernon Davis
Sit:
QB: Alex Smith
RB: Kendall Hunter, Demarco Murray, Tashard Choice
WR: Dez Bryant (injured, if fully plays, then start), Braylon Edwards, Michael Crabtree
TE: None
Cincinnati Bengals @ Denver Broncos
4:15 PM EST – CBS
Line: Broncos -3.5
Over/Under: 40
Bengals 24, Broncos 20
Start:
QB: None
RB: Cedric Benson, Willis McGahee (if Moreno is ruled out as expected)
WR: Brandon Lloyd (should be active), Jerome Simpson (PPR)
TE: None
Sit:
QB: Andy Dalton, Kyle Orton
RB: Knowshon Moreno
WR: AJ Green, Eric Decker (unless Lloyd is inactive), Eddie Royal (unless Lloyd is inactive)
TE: Jermaine Gresham
Houston Texans @ Miami Dolhpins
4:15 PM EST - CBS
Line: Texans -3
Over/Under: 48
Texans 30, Dolphins 23
Start:
QB: Matt Schaub
RB: Arian Foster, Ben Tate (flex in PPR), Reggie Bush
WR: Brandon Marshall, Andre Johnson, Davone Bess (PPR)
TE: Owen Daniels
Sit:
QB: Chad Henne
RB: Daniel Thomas
WR: Jacoby Jones (for now), Davone Bess (non-PPR)
TE: Anthony Fasano
Game of the Week: San Diego Chargers @ New England Patriots
4:15 PM EST – CBS
Line: Patriots -6.5
Over/Under: 53.5
Patriots 34, Chargers 30
Start:
QB: Phillip Rivers, Tom Brady
RB: Mike Tolbert, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Danny Woodhead (PPR)
WR: Vincent Jackson, Wes Welker
TE: Antonio Gates, Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez
Sit:
QB: None
RB: Ran Matthews, Danny Woodhead (Non-PPR)
WR: Chad Ochocinco, Malcom Floyd
TE: None
Philadelphia Eagles @ Atlanta Falcons
8:20 PM EST – NBC
Line: Eagles -2.5
Over/Under: 49.5
Eagles 27, Falcons 24
Start:
QB: Mike Vick
RB: Lesean McCoy, Michael Turner
WR: Desean Jackson, Roddy White
TE: None
Sit:
QB: Matt Ryan
RB: Ronnie Brown
WR: Jeremy Maclin, Julio Jones
TE: Brent Celek, Tony Gonzlez
St.Louis Rams @ NewYork Giants
Monday, 8:30 PM EST – ESPN
Line: Giants -6
Over/Under: 44
Giants 24, Rams 16
Start:
QB: Joe Flacco
RB: Ray Rice, Cadillac Williams
WR: Anquan Boldin, Brandon Gibson (especially in PPR)
TE: None
Sit:
QB: Sam Bradford
RB: Ricky Williams, Steven Jackson (injury)
WR: Lee Evans, Mike Sims-Walker, Gre Salas
TE: Lance Kendricks, Ed Dickson
That’s all the games for this week. If you have any suggestions, comments, or questions about your fantasy team then check me out on Twitter or you can email me. Most of the players that were starts and sits were based on my rankings, which are off of a ten man league on ESPN standard scoring.
Oakland Raiders @ Buffalo Bills
1:00 PM EST - CBS
Line: Bills by 3
Over/Under: 42
Bills 30, Raiders 17
Start:
QB: Ryan Fitzpatrick
RB: Fred Jackson, Darren McFadden
WR: Steve Johnson
TE: None
Sit:
QB: Jason Campbell
RB: Michael Bush, CJ Spiller
WR: Jacoby Ford., Darius Heyward-Bey
TE: Scott Chandler (for now) and Kevin Boss
Kansas City Chiefs @ Detroit Lions
1:00 PM EST - CBS
Line: Lions -9
Over/Under: 45
Lions 34, Chiefs 20
Start:
QB: Matthew Stafford
RB: Jamaal Charles, Jahvid Best
WR: Calvin Johnson
TE: Brandon Pettigrew
Sit:
QB: Matt Cassel
RB: Thomas Jones
WR: Dwayne Bowe (unless team is injury ridden), Nate Burleson (maybe a deep flex)
TE: Tony Scheffler
Baltimore Ravens @ Tennessee Titans
1:00 PM EST - CBS
Line: Ravens -6
Over/Under: 38
Ravens 27, Titans 10
Start:
QB: Joe Flacco
RB: Ray Rice, Chris Johnson
WR: Kenny Britt, Anquan Boldin
TE: None
Sit:
QB: Matthew Hasselbeck
RB: Ricky Williams (unless in deep league or plagued with injury)
WR: Lee Evans, Nate Washington (Should be on a roster in a PPR)
TE: Ed Dickson (for now), Jared Cook
Chicago Bears @ New Orleans Saints
1:00PM EST - FOX
Line: Saints -6.5
Over/Under: 47.5
Bears 24, Saints 21 (OT)
Start:
QB: Drew Brees
RB: Matt Forte, Mark Ingram (low-end flex)
WR: Lance Moore (if he is going to play), if no Moore then Meachem is a go, Henderson (only if Moore is out)
TE: Jimmy Graham
Sit:
QB: Jay Cutler
RB: Pierre Thomas
WR: Roy Williams, Johnny Knox, Earl Bennett
TE: Matt Spaeth
Cleveland Browns @ Indianapolis Colts
1:00 PM EST - CBS
Line: Browns -2
Over/Under: 39.5
Browns 20, Colts 13
Start:
QB: None
RB: Peyton Hillis, Joseph Addai (low-end flex)
WR: Reggie Wayne
TE: Dallas Clark, Evan Moore (if desperate)
Sit:
QB: Colt McCoy, Kerry Collins
RB: Delone Carter (for now)
WR: Pierre Garcon, Austin Collie, all Browns WRs
TE: Ben Watson
Green Bay Packers @ Carolina Panthers
1:00 PM EST - FOX
Line: Packers -10
Over/Under: 45.4
Packers 34, Panthers 20
Start:
QB: Aaron Rodgers
RB: James Starks, DeAngelo Williams
WR: Greg Jennings, Steve Smith (flex), Jordy Nelson (nice flex in a PPR)
TE: Jermichael Finley
Sit:
QB: Cam Newton (for now)
RB: Johnathan Stewart, Ryan Grant
WR: James Jones
TE: Greg Olsen
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Minnesota Vikings
1:00 PM EST – FOX
Line: Vikings -3
Over/Under: 41.5
Buccaneers 24, Vikings 10
Start:
QB: Josh Freeman
RB: Legarrette Blount (sad to say, but he may be a deep flex this week), Adrian Peterson
WR: Percy Harvin, Mike Williams
TE: Kellen Winslow
Sit:
QB: Donavan McNabb
RB: None
WR: Arrelious Benn (a guy to keep your eye on), Michael Jenkins
TE: Visanthe Shiancoe
Jacksonville Jaguars @ New York Jets
1:00 PM EST – FOX
Line: Jets -9
Over/Under: 39
Jets 30, Jaguars 17
Starts:
QB: Mark Sanchez
RB: Shonn Greene (deep flex), Maurice Jones-Drew
WR: Santonio Holmes (if active), if not active then Plaxico Burress is a good option, Mike Thomas (PPR)
TE: None
Sit:
QB: Luke McCown
RB: Ladanian Tomlinson, Deji Karim
WR: None
TE: Marcedes Lewis, Dustin Keller
Arizona Cardinals @ Washington Redskins
1:00 PM EST – FOX
Line: Redskins -3.5
Over/Under: 44
Redskins 26, Cardinals 20
Start:
QB: Rex Grossman
RB: Tim Hightower, Beanie Wells
WR: Larry Fitzgerald, Santana Moss
TE: None
Sit:
QB: Kevin Kolb
RB: Roy Helu
WR: Jabar Gaffney (unless in deep league), Early Doucet (for now), Andre Roberts
TE: Todd Heap, Fred Davis, Chris Cooley
Seattle Seahawks @ Pittsburgh Steelers
1:00 PM EST – FOX
Line: Steelers -14
Over/Under: 40
Steelers 30, Seahawks 13
Start:
QB: Ben Roethlisberger
RB: Rashard Mendenhall
WR: Mike Williams (flex with Rice out), Mike Wallace, Hines Ward (PPR)
TE: None
Sit:
QB: Tavaris Jackson
RB: Marshawyn Lynch, Justin Forsett
WR: Emmanuel Sanders, Sidney Rice (out)
TE: Heath Miller, Zach Miller
Dallas Cowboys @ San Francsico 49ers
4:05 PM EST - FOX
Line: Cowboys -3
Over/Under: 42.5
Cowboys 34, 49ers 20
Start:
QB: Tony Romo
RB: Felix Jones, Frank Gore
WR: Miles Austin
TE: Jason Witten, Vernon Davis
Sit:
QB: Alex Smith
RB: Kendall Hunter, Demarco Murray, Tashard Choice
WR: Dez Bryant (injured, if fully plays, then start), Braylon Edwards, Michael Crabtree
TE: None
Cincinnati Bengals @ Denver Broncos
4:15 PM EST – CBS
Line: Broncos -3.5
Over/Under: 40
Bengals 24, Broncos 20
Start:
QB: None
RB: Cedric Benson, Willis McGahee (if Moreno is ruled out as expected)
WR: Brandon Lloyd (should be active), Jerome Simpson (PPR)
TE: None
Sit:
QB: Andy Dalton, Kyle Orton
RB: Knowshon Moreno
WR: AJ Green, Eric Decker (unless Lloyd is inactive), Eddie Royal (unless Lloyd is inactive)
TE: Jermaine Gresham
Houston Texans @ Miami Dolhpins
4:15 PM EST - CBS
Line: Texans -3
Over/Under: 48
Texans 30, Dolphins 23
Start:
QB: Matt Schaub
RB: Arian Foster, Ben Tate (flex in PPR), Reggie Bush
WR: Brandon Marshall, Andre Johnson, Davone Bess (PPR)
TE: Owen Daniels
Sit:
QB: Chad Henne
RB: Daniel Thomas
WR: Jacoby Jones (for now), Davone Bess (non-PPR)
TE: Anthony Fasano
Game of the Week: San Diego Chargers @ New England Patriots
4:15 PM EST – CBS
Line: Patriots -6.5
Over/Under: 53.5
Patriots 34, Chargers 30
Start:
QB: Phillip Rivers, Tom Brady
RB: Mike Tolbert, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Danny Woodhead (PPR)
WR: Vincent Jackson, Wes Welker
TE: Antonio Gates, Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez
Sit:
QB: None
RB: Ran Matthews, Danny Woodhead (Non-PPR)
WR: Chad Ochocinco, Malcom Floyd
TE: None
Philadelphia Eagles @ Atlanta Falcons
8:20 PM EST – NBC
Line: Eagles -2.5
Over/Under: 49.5
Eagles 27, Falcons 24
Start:
QB: Mike Vick
RB: Lesean McCoy, Michael Turner
WR: Desean Jackson, Roddy White
TE: None
Sit:
QB: Matt Ryan
RB: Ronnie Brown
WR: Jeremy Maclin, Julio Jones
TE: Brent Celek, Tony Gonzlez
St.Louis Rams @ NewYork Giants
Monday, 8:30 PM EST – ESPN
Line: Giants -6
Over/Under: 44
Giants 24, Rams 16
Start:
QB: Joe Flacco
RB: Ray Rice, Cadillac Williams
WR: Anquan Boldin, Brandon Gibson (especially in PPR)
TE: None
Sit:
QB: Sam Bradford
RB: Ricky Williams, Steven Jackson (injury)
WR: Lee Evans, Mike Sims-Walker, Gre Salas
TE: Lance Kendricks, Ed Dickson
That’s all the games for this week. If you have any suggestions, comments, or questions about your fantasy team then check me out on Twitter or you can email me. Most of the players that were starts and sits were based on my rankings, which are off of a ten man league on ESPN standard scoring.
Week Two Tank and Bank
After my rankings come
out, I try to find the guys that I think have the best match ups. It’s more of
just guys that I think will really help your fantasy team this week. But with
that, I’d like to introduce my new start/sit, and what I like to call a little
bank and tank. It’s just like start/sit, but instead of giving you two bank and
two tank, I will also add in a sleeper for the week. Let’s get to it.
Quarterbacks
Bank
Ryan Fitzpatrick vs Oakland – Last week Fitzpatrick
tossed four touchdowns on his way to dominate the Bills. He looked very composed
and never turned the ball over. He has a great matchup this week against the
Raiders that got tossed around by Kyle Orton last week. Fitzpatrick is a good
start if you are scrambling for a QB.
Mark Sanchez vs Jacksonville - He didn’t have a great week last week against
a week Cowboys secondary, but I think he has an even easier matchup this week.
Last week Jacksonville let Hasselbeck throw up and down the field and if old
Hasselbeck can do it, then so can “Sanchise”. Maybe Mr.”I Love to toy with my
hair” can dig out a nice performance, that is if he can take a second from
posing for GQ magazine.
Tank
Matt Ryan @ Philadelphia – Last week Matt Ryan
couldn’t find the end zone against the Bears – a decent pass defense. If he can’t
perform against a little over average pass defense, then he won’t be able to execute
against an elite pass defense.
Kevin Kolb @ Washington – I know this isn’t a great
tank, because he is probably on most people’s bench, but I think he is going to
have a bad game against Washington.
Washington held Eli Manning to no touchdowns and they played a pretty
good game. The ground game was a little different though; the Giants were
running on Washington and running fairly well. I think Kolb could really tank
this week.
Running Backs
Bank
Cedric Benson @ Denver – Most people are saying that
Benson didn’t have a great game before the long touchdown, but with the touches
he is getting you have to start him every week. Last week, Denver allowed 150
yards on 22 carries to Darren McFadden. Granted, Benson is by no means at the
level of McFadden. But I do think Benson will get about the amount of carries
that DMC got last week, and Benson’s offense might be on the goal line more
often, and they will give Benson the ball in that situation instead of giving
it to Michael Bush.
Fred Jackson vs Oakland – Oakland shut down Moreno last week, but with the way that Fred Jackson ran the rock, I just can’t sit him. He averaged almost six yards a rush last year. I think Oakland’s defense will show its true colors this week. Just because Denver’s offensive line could not block last week doesn’t mean that the Bills offensive line will do as bad. You’re going to bank on Fred Jackson this week, I guarantee it.
Tank
LeGarrette Blount @ Minnesota – Last week Minnesota
couldn’t stop the run, and Blount is expected to get more carries. All good
things, right? Wrong. The reports of Blount getting more carries are wrong. He
is asking for more carries but his coaches have denied his requests and it is likely he will
not be in the game on passing downs and on third downs. I think Blount, just
like last week, is going to tank.
Ryan Matthews @ New England – When I heard of the Tolbert injury this guy was going to shoot up my rankings, but no we know that Tolbert is back in the groove of things and is expected to play. I really don’t like Matthews and I think he is going to continue to fall in my rankings. He is never going to be in the game in goal line situations and he will never be in on third downs. Tolbert improved his pass catching in the off-season and grabbed the starting job along the way. Matthews is going to continue to tank and Tolbert is your guy.
Wide Receivers
Bank
Steve Johnson vs Oakland – Steve Johnson was
targeted six times last week; tied for the the most on the team, and that was
against Chiefs CB Brandon Flowers. This week he is matched up against Stanford
Routt who didn’t have a terrible game last week, but he was targeted 11 times.
Trendy? I think it will be. I see Fitzpatrick throwing to Johnson a lot this
week, so watch out.
Santana Moss vs Arizona – Last week Moss was 6 for
76 yards against Aaron Ross. This week, Moss couldn’t have a better matchup than
the rookie cornerback Patrick Peterson. Grossman is playing very well, and
Peterson was burned over and over against by Newton and Steve Smith last week.
Moss is going to bank this week, and if Grossman can continue to play how he is
playing, then Moss will continue to bank.
Tank
Dwayne Bowe @ Detroit – The Chiefs offense worried
me last week, and that makes me worry even more about Dwayne Bowe. He is so
inconsistent, and it’s not helping that his offense can’t move the ball. And it
wasn’t like the Chiefs were playing the Ravens or the Steelers, they were
playing the Bills. They scored seven points against the Bills defense. Detroit
looked good in week one, and I think Bowe is going to dishearten a lot of
owners this week.
Jeremy Maclin @ Atlanta – Maclin was targeted a gimpy
one catch on three targets, while Avant was targeted seven times for three
catches. I know this probably won’t trend but it makes me worry about Maclin.
He has his good and bad games, that was obviously a bad one. But this week will
be a bad one too. He isn’t playing an awesome pass defense, but it’s not
terrible. With Atlanta putting pressure on Vick the entire game I don’t think
Maclin is going to get many looks.
Tight
Ends
Bank
Jimmy Graham vs Chicago – I know most people are
already starting this guy, but the matchup makes me want to start him even
more. He was targeted seven times last
week, and Brees threw to him two times in the undersized number of red zone
reps that he got. With Colston out I think it is going to only bring more looks
to Graham. Not only that, but the Bears allowed aged Tony Gonzalez to get 72
yards, so why can’t Graham do that? He will, and I think he will do even more
than that on Sunday.
Tank
Fred Davis vs Arizona – With the return of Cooley I
really don’t think Davis will see many looks. I know that the Redskins are
talking about two TE sets, but I don’t trust that quite yet. I ‘m not buying
the hype on Davis just yet.
Well that is all for me. Thank you for reading and I will be back with my weekly picks Saturday night or Sunday morning. You can always follow me on twitter or email me. I am also open to answering any of your football questions and I love a little discussion. Hopefully I can help you win your week two match up, on your way to a fantasy championship (you guys are all going to your fantasy championship, right?)
September 13, 2011
Let Them Preach! Week One Edition
There it goes. It just blew right by your head! No not the
ball! Week one of the NFL season decided to swing in and give us an
entertaining Sunday (and a record-breaking-type Monday too) for the first time in over seven months. But was it an even
more exciting Monday? Well, I decided that I would start a new segment called “Let
Them Preach” that is essentially one thing I learned from each game every week.
I’m not sure how long this will last, but hey, you never know until you try. It
will be out every Tuesday after the Monday night games. It will usually be a
short little article so let’s get to it.
1. James Starks is going to be the main guy for the Packers. Starks ran harder and just looked like the guy who the Packers can put their trust in.
2. Aaron Rodgers has a bromance with Greg Jennings. Rodgers loves to throw to the most talented guy on the field, and that is going to continue.
3.Jimmy Graham will become Drew Brees favorite target with Colston out for a while.
Atlanta Falcons @ Chicago Bears
1. Bears can compete for the division championship in the NFC North again, and I think that is apparent to almost everyone who watched them this week.
2. With clear WR1 for the Bears, Matt Forte is going to be a tremendous game changer for the Bears.
3. Julio Jones was the second most productive rookie on the weekend, and I thought that he looked better than AJ Green.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns
1. Jerome Simpson is relevant, at least with Bruce Gradkowski under center.
2. Cedric Benson can still get the rock and run with it, and the Bengals sure love to run the ball.
3. We still don’t know who McCoy is going to throw the ball to (when was the last time the Browns had a WR1 anyways?). I did find out that McCoy loves to throw to his tight ends though, and Moore could have value.
Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs
1. Ryan Fitzpatrick was, has been, and always will be an underrated NFL QB. No doubt about that. He has never gotten any man love from anyone, but the Bills know and I know that he is a flower budding on a warm sunny day in spring.
2. Scott Chandler looks like he is going to be Ryan “Don’t Look Now” Fitzpatrick’s favorite target.
3. Jamaal Charles looks like he is going to share the ball . . . a lot.
Philadelphia Eagles @ St.Louis Rams
1. Eagles line isn’t as bad as I thought it was going to do. What do I mean by that? It means I didn’t puke, but Michael Vick could put up numbers.
2. Avant having more targets than Maclin is not going to happen often. And I will not be benching Maclin in week two.
3. Cadillac Williams still has it (“it” refers to his running skills). Oh, and if all of you out there didn’t know, Carnell “Cadillac” Williams is going to be starting next week, so GO GRAB HIM!
Detroit Lions @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
1. Josh Freeman is going to throw the ball, and it is really going to hurt Blount’s value.
2. Arrelious Benn should be watched. He had seven targets and I think he might even start stealing targets from Mike Williams.
3. Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson could have something special.
Tennesse Titans @ Jacksonville Titans
1. Mike Thomas is the #1 target for McCown, no doubt.
2. Kenny Britt is an incredible playmaker.
3. Hasselbeck might be able to actually produce with the Titans.
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers
1. Ravens are contenders to make it to the Superbowl. Your heard me. Superbowl.
2. Hines Ward isn’t done yet, and it is hurting Emmanuel Sanders/Antonio Brown.
3. Anquan Boldin is going to be Flacco’s favorite target, unlike last year, and I think he could finish a top 10 fantasy football WR.
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans
1. Peyton Manning should have won more than four MVPs.
2. I think we all found out that the Colts might be worse than the ’08 Lions. Ok maybe a little over-exaggeration thare, but the Colts are a giant wreck without Peyton Manning.
3. The Texans have a really good offensive line, or Ben Tate can run almost as good as Arian Foster, pick your poison. Without Arian Foster Tate had himself a very good game.
4. Although they were facing old man Collins, the Texans pass defense didn’t look half bad against a pretty strong receiving crops.
Carolina Panthers @ Arizona Cardinals
1. Cam Newton can actually be a starting quarterback in this league. Shocker! All kidding aside, he had a great game and he has some great upside in the coming weeks.
2. Steve Smith will be a strong candidate for comeback player of the year if him and Newton continue to connect.
3. Newton’s running skills are going to really hurt the Carolina backfield.
4. Kolb is going to spread the ball around a lot, and it looks like his first option is Fitzgerald. But I think Doucet earned the backup role on Sunday.
Minnesota Vikings @ San Diego Chargers
1. Rivers, although he didn’t look phenomenal on Sunday, is going to be in contention for the passing yards crown again. He throws the ball as much as I tweet (a lot).
2. Mike Tolbert is the official goal line back of your San Diego Chargers.
3. Adrian Peterson is going to have to start leading the Vikings, as well as everyone rallying around McNabb if this football team wants to win games.
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers
1. Just like “All Day”, Frank Gore is going to have to take control of his, but more specifically his offense, if they want to win games.
2. With the way Tavaris Jackson spread the ball around, I don’t see Sidney Rice being a huge factor when he returns, but I could always be wrong. I think this is the next Browns that have no clear #1 wide receiver.
3. Crabtree’s foot is going to bother him all year; I expect Braylon Edwards and Vernon Davis to become a bigger part of the offense this year, just in general.
New York Giants @ Denver Broncos
1. Tim Hightower is going to be the main man in Shanahan’s offense.
2. Rex Grossman, yes, Rex Grossman, could lead this teams to some success (but be realistic, we’re talking about the Redskins here. As of now Rex Grossman is actually right: The Redskins will win the NFC East, judging by the way the standings are right now.
3. Hakeem Nicks is a complete monster and he never quits (see injury).
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Jets
1. Tony Romo is one of the best quarterbacks in the game . . . in the first three quarters.
2. Santonio Holmes is clearly going to be the guy for the Jets.
3. Just like I predicted, Jason Witten will be the most targeted pass catcher on this team.
4. Plaxico can’t do much against a good corner, as seen in the second half on Sunday Night.
New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins
1. I was actually right about Chad Henne.
2. Chad Ochocinco isn’t going to be much of a factor this year. He was hardly even on the field.
3. Tom Brady is a beast, but Hakeem Nicks is right behind him on the beastliness scale.
4. Reggie Bush cannot be a #1 RB in the NFL, even if the Dolphins try to make him one, he is just not.
Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos
1. Sebastian Janikowski has a leg.
2. Michael Bush and the rest of that backfield are going to get more carries this year than last. Or, at least they will get more playing time
3. Orton and Lloyd both showed us that they aren’t one year wonders.
4. The Broncos’ offensive line was putrid. I would still buy low on Moreno. I completely still believe in the guy.
I hope you enjoyed my first edition of “Let Them Preach”. Tomorrow will be my rankings, and Thursday will be my Bank and Tank for week two. Don’t forget that the rankings are now on a separate tab, so when they aren’t on the blog page tomorrow then go look there. If you would like to speak with me or have any questions then you can always catch me on Twitter or you can feel free to email me. Thanks for reading, and I will see you tomorrow.
September 10, 2011
Week One NFL Game Picks
Us fans have been through a near detrimental lockout, an agonizing off-season, and a frustrating wait, but Thursday we got back to football. The words we have been waiting to hear for seven months: back to football. Oh, the sweet sound. Every fan making their picks, setting their line ups, scanning the waiver wire, asking the fantasy gods their start/sit questions, but now it is a reality. Sunday is the day. I have done almost all of that. I sit here and rank my players time and time again, pick who I would start/sit, and just talk about football. But now I have one last thing to do before football gets to a start: make my picks. I know I missed one game already, but with the Packers being my Superbowl pick I figured that you guys might now that I was going with the Pack.
Now that that game is in the past we can move on to Sunday. I'm going to give you my pick for every game, including my pick with the line, and the O/U. Not only that but I will also post the score and the fantasy impact in every game.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens
ESPN Preview
CBS - 1:00 PM EST
Line: Ravens by 1
Over/Under: 36
My Preview: I think the Ravens win this one although I have the Steelers winning the North. If Ravens can prevent turnovers then I think they will prevail, and I would take them with the spread too. I'm going to take the under on this game. The Steelers and Ravens always play very tight low scoring games, I would expect a little less than 36.
Fantasy Impact- I wouldn't like to have either one of these QBs this week, most people usually have better options. As for the running backs, I think everyone needs to start their studs and stop worrying about the bad match up. My sleeper for this game is Emanuel Sanders. I think he is going to find some holes in the defense and have a nice game. Also, those worried about Boldin, forget about it. He is still a decent flex play this week.
Prediction: Ravens 20, Steelers 13
Detroit Lions @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
ESPN Preview
FOX - 1:00 PM EST
Line: Buccaneers by 1
Over/Under: 41
My Preview: Believe it or not, this (in some people's minds) is a playoff match up. Neither one of these teams weren't in my playoffs, but I think both are very solid contenders. The Lions have a healthy Matthew Stafford, and for the Bucs it's another year of experience for quarterback Josh Freeman. This should be a good offense game, and I am going to go against the line and say that the Lions win this one. I think their offense is going to really impress a lot of people. I will also take the over on 41. Lions 30 - Buccaneers 24
Fantasy Impact- Look for both QBs to have a nice one in this game, but I think Stafford will fare better than Freeman. For RBs, I like Blount a lot this week. He is a guy I will be watching to see if he is the workhorse that many have said that he may be. For the wide receivers you are obviously starting Megatron. In a deeper league I think Burleson could be interesting this week. Williams is a solid WR2 this week too, but I will be keeping my eye on Benn to see what kind of role he plays in this offense. As for the TE's, both are pretty good plays.
Atlanta Falcons @ Chicago Bears
ESPN Preview
FOX - 1:00 PM EST
Line: Falcons by 2.5
Over/Under: 40.5
My Preview: This game consists of two playoff teams from 2010. Both teams had a first round bye in the playoffs, and the Bears hosted the NFC Championship in that loss to the Green Bay Packers. The Bears might be a little bit underrated in this match up, just like they were all of last year. I think Bears will have a solid outing in this game, but I'm going to go with Matty Ice in this one. I'll take the Falcons with and without the spread. I will go under on the over/under.
Fantasy Impact: Matt Ryan should be a good fantasy option for this game, but Jay cutler might not. Both teams have good defenses, but are better in the rushing/pass rush game and don't have strong secondaries. I don't think I am starting any Bears WRs, while I would start Roddy White and possibly Julio Jones in the flex in a deep league. I'm starting both RBs. Barber may be held out of this games, which guarantees goal line carries for Forte, and a heavy load. I really like Forte this week. Neither TE should be in your starting lineup.
Predictions: Falcons 24 - Bears 16
Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City
ESPN Preview
CBS - 1:00 PM EST
Line: Chiefs by 5.5
Over/Under: 40
My Preview: Bills may not be there ye, but they are rising. I think they will compete in nearly every game this year, and also have a fair record. Kansas City is going to have to beat San Diego for the division and they need a strong start. Cassel says he will play this game. I think Bills are going to hang in this game until the end just like they did all of last year. Charles will end up being the difference maker in this game.
Fantasy Impact: Both QBs should not be in a standard league lineup. Charles had a very good game last year against the Bills, and I would expect another one this year. Bowe on the other hand did not, with only seven fantasy points. I am still starting Bowe this week no doubt. As for the Bills, I think you are starting Fred Jackson in your flex and playing Steve Johnson as a WR2. Both should be good options for week one. I think everyone should keep their eye on Ryan Fitzpatrick, a QB that is very far under the radar this year.
Prediction: Chiefs 27 - Bills 23
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans
ESPN Preview
CBS - 1:00 PM EST
Line: Texans by 8.5
Over/Under: 43.5
My Preview: No Manning. No glory for the Colts. This team is formed around Manning and without Peyton under center, things could get ugly for the Colts. This is definitely the chance for the Texans to end the Colts streak of playoff appearances at nine. I think the Texans have an extremely favorable match-up against 38 year old Kerry Collins, Peyton Manning's replacement. I know you are saying to yourself, "Manning? Replacement? Those don't belong together," But that's what the Colts have been forced to do in Indianapolis. Houston is going to spread the ball around and embarrass these Colts on Sunday.
Fantasy Impact: I ranked Andre Johnson as my #1 wide receiver this week for a reason: Foster is injured, and the Texans are going to air it out against a sub-par Colts' pass defense. Another thing, even though my rankings say differently, I think the Texans are going to be cautious with Foster and sit him out for this game. I think Ward and Tate are going to handle the load just fine. As for the Colts' well, it's going to be all about Kerry Collins performance. I think Kerry Collins hurts the value of Wayne and Garcon. But I can see Addai getting more of a load, Clark getting more targets, and Collie just being the kind of receiver that Collins can trust. I think Schaub, Andre Johnson, Clark, Wayne, Collie, and Addai are the guys that deserve a starting spot this week.
Prediction: Texans 38 - Colts 17.
Philadelphia Eagles @ St.Louis Rams
ESPN Preview
FOX - 1:00 PM EST
Line: Eagles by 4
Over/Under: 44
My Preview: Can the "Dream Team" show up in week one? If the Rams can put the pressure on Vick then the Eagles might have a hard time, but if they don't get any pressure on Vick, then he is going to absolutely shred this Rams defense. Sam Bradford is going to have a lot of trouble with this defense as well. We also get to see how this Eagles secondary is going to do in a real game situation, so this should be a good one to watch.
Fantasy Impact: This game has a lot of fantasy studs you are probably going to want to start. On the Eagles side you have Mike Vick playing a weak Rams pass defense; I ranked him #1 this week. You also have McCoy who may get a lot of catches because the rush that the Rams will be putting on Vick, and then Desean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin as well. For the Rams, fantasy owners should be keeping their eyes on Sam Bradford and Mike Sims-Walker, as well as up and coming tight end Lance Kendricks. The only guy I am starting for the Rams this week though is Steven Jackson.
Prediction: Eagles 30, Rams 20
Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns
ESPN Preview
CBS - 1:00 PM EST
Line: Cleveland by 6.5
Over/Under: 35.5
My Preview: Both of these teams are seen by gutter teams by almost every analyst, but I tend to think otherwise. I don't think that Browns are all that bad. They are a team on the rise right now, and they have a lot of young talent. The Bengals on the other hand, well, they are the Bengals. They could be one of the worst teams in the NFL this year, and this is a game that rookie QB Andy Dalton can come out and show everyone that they can play.
Fantasy Impact: There really aren't many guys to start in this game besides Peyton Hillis. The main thing I am watching is who the two quarterback's are going to target the most. I think for the Browns Brian Robiskie is going to get a lot of looks, and for the Bengals I think it will be Jerome Simpson. I think Jermaine Gresham will get quite a few looks from Dalton as well. The only two guys I am starting are Hillis and Cedric Benson. Everyone else has potential, but they aren't there yet.
Prediction: Browns 23, Bengals 10 - Browns are my Eliminator Pick of the Week
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
ESPN Preview
CBS - 1:00 PM EST
Line: Jaguars by 1
Over/Under: 35.5
My Preview: A lot of new faces in new places in this game. We're going to see Matt Hasselbeck in a Titans jersey, Chris Johnson on the field, Mike Thomas as a #1 wide receiver, and Luke McCown starting at quarterback. The Titans are going to be packing eight men in the box very often to stop the Jags only weapon: Marice Jones-Drew. I think Kenny Britt may have a nice game, but we will have to see how him and Hasselbeck connect. The Titans may actually fare well in this one, and they might even make a run at the division title early in the year.
Fantasy Impact: Unless Luke McCown can step up, I don't expect MJD to have a great game. You still have to start him, but don't expect too much. I think Marcedes Lewis value should stay the same, and he is still a top ten tight end, but it hurts the little value that Mike Thomas had, as well as Jason Hill. For the Titans, I think both Chris Johnson and Kenny Britt will have really good games against the weak Jaguars defense. I will also be watching tight end Jared Cook, and wide receiver Nate Washington.
Prediction: Titans 20, Jacksonville 10
New York Giants @ Washington Redskins
ESPN Preview
FOX - 4:15 PM EST
Line: Giants by 3
Over/Under: 38
My Preview: Redskins decided to go with Grossman over Beck for the starting QB job, and it was very apparent that he was having a better preseason. However, this Redskins team is not going to fare well this year. And with injuries in the secondary (even though they acquired OJ Atogwe) Eli Manning could throw all over this already bad pass defense. But speaking of pass defenses, the Giant's isn't all that great either. Washington isn't going to hang around long in this game, and I think the line is way too far off.
Fantasy Impact: Hakeem Nicks is going to go off this week, I really like him against the weak pass defense of the Redskins. Manningham should have a nice game as well. Although it is unknown how Coughlin is going to use Jacobs, I think Bradshaw is a must start, and Jacobs should be held on the bench, at least for now. For the Reskins, I think that Fred Davis (if Chris Cooley sits) and Moss could both have nice games this week, Grossman isn't awful, and those guys should still get targets. Hightower is worht a flex spot this week, but stay away from the other two (Helu and Torain) if you can.
Prediction: Giants 27, Redskins 16
Carolina Panthers @ Arizona Cardinals
ESPN Preview
FOX - 4:15 PM EST
Line: Cardinals by 6.5
Over/Under: 37
My Preview: There are two new quarterbacks under center for both of these teams. One has a lot more experience than the other, but they are both new to their respective teams. I still don't think either offense is going to have a great game here. Kevin Kolb has to deal with Carolina's above-par secondary, and the Panthers are led by Cam Newton who has looked ugly in the preseason in terms of passing. Panthers have the better RBs, but without a passing game to back it up, DeAngelo Williams and Johnathan Stewart may not be all that productive
Fantasy Impact: Kolb may be in some team's lineup this week, he is a very low end QB1, but Cam Newton should not be in any lineup and should be on the bench. Fitzgerald has a quarterback now and it will be good to see how he fares with Kolb, as well as my sleeper wide receiver Andre Roberts. For the Panthers, I want to see how their offense is going to do with Cam Newton. People should be starting Steve Smith, Larry Fitzgerald, DeAngelo Williams, and Johnathan Stewart and Beanie Wells should be decent flex plays this week.
Prediction: Cardinals 24, Panthers 13
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers
ESPN Preview
FOX - 4:15 PM EST
Line: 49ers by 5.5
Over/Under: 37.5
My Preview: There really isn't much to say here. I think this game is going to be bad: a very low scoring affair for both teams. The 49ers quarterbacks couldn't produce in the preseason to save their lives and the Seahawks have Tavaris Jackson under center, enough said. This game is not going to be pretty. I think Frank Gore will actually shine some light on the 49ers pass defense though, and the Seahawks aren't going to have much of an answer for him.
Fantasy Impact: Neither QB is going to have much of a game and neither one should even be on a fantasy rosters. For the wide receivers, the only one I might be starting is Braylon Edwards. Sidney Rice is listed as doubtful and looks like he is going to sit this one out. I wouldn't start any Seattle wide receivers. I am starting both starting running backs though. Davis is an obvious start at TE, and Miller is a decent start at TE.
Prediction: 49ers 17, Seahawks 14
Minnesota Vikings @ San Diego Chargers
ESPN Preview
FOX - 4:15 PM EST
Line: San Diego by 8.5
Over/Under: 41.5
My Preview: One of the biggest and most predictable moves in the off-season was Donavan McNabb heading to Minnesota. Even without Sidney Rice there anymore, I think McNabb could have a decent season, and I know he can have one better than he did in Washington. Phillip Rivers is a lot of people's MVP pick right now. And I wouldn't doubt it considering he led the league in passing yards without his two top targets for a lot of the season. In this game, I am really looking for how Mike Tolbert and Ryan Matthews are going to be used in this offense. I'll also be watching how McNabb and Harvin connect in their first NFL game together. I think the Vikings might contend with this team for a while, but the Chargers are just too powerful for the
Fantasy Impact: With Kevin Williams out, I think both Chargers running backs are good starts this week. Antonio Gates looks like he will be ready to go, and Vincent Jackson is always a must start. I think everyone who has Floyd should wait and see how the Chargers are going to use their WR2 this year, and then maybe activate him in weeks to come. For the Vikings I would play Harvin with a flex spot, and you are obviously going to be starting Adrian Peterson.
Prediction: Chargers 30, Vikings 20
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Jets
ESPN Preview
NBC - 8:20 PM EST
Line: Jets by 5.5
Over/Under: 40.5
My Preview: The way the Cowboys secondary reacts to the injury of Terence Newman is going to leave a major impact on this game. If Orlando Scandrick can come up and perform (like his contract says he should) then Cowboys will be fine, but if not, it could be an ugly game for the Cowboys defense. The Jets are going to have to find a way to shut down the Cowboys passing attack if they want to have a chance in this one. Romo will likely go to Witten, or expose Cromartie whether than going Darelle Revis' way. I'll be watching to see how Plaxico Burress fares against the Cowboys, and also who the Cowboys true third wide receiver is going to be this year.
Fantasy Impact: A couple of the people I am sitting in this game may surprise you. I am going to sit both of the running backs. I think both will probably get shut down by the opposing defense. I am starting Austin, Dez Bryant, and Santonio Holmes. The best performance from this game will probably by Jason Witten because the Jets just don't have the linebackers to cover him. I am sitting Plaxico Burress and Dustin Keller until they can prove to me they are start-worthy. I think both of the quarterbacks are decent options this week, but Sanchez has the most upside as this may not be Romo's week.
Predictions: Cowboys 27, Jets 24 - Game of the Week
New England Patriots @ Miami Dolhpins
ESPN Preview
ESPN - Monday 7:00 PM EST
Line: Patriots by 6.5
Over/Under: 45.5
My Preview: Patriots were the #1 seed in last year's playoffs, and all they did was improve this off-season with the addition of Ochocinco and Albert Haynesworth. Both could, and should, benefit the team. They did recently release Brandon Meriweather, but it shouldn't be a huge factor for the Patriots. Brady is going to jump on the Dolphins on Monday night, and the Dolphins are going to get crushed. Patriots defeated the Dolphins by an average of 29 points in two games last year. Twenty-nine. With a better offense, I think the Patriots are going to be all over the 'Phins
Fantasy Impact: The Dolphins have a pretty mediocre pass defense, so I think Ochocinco and Welker are both starts. I expect the Dolphins to go down early, and then start throwing the ball a lot. That's why I like Chad Henne if you are scrambling for a quarterback this week. I also like Reggie Bush since Daniel Thomas is not going to play in this one, as well as Brandon Marshall. For the Patriots tight ends that went back and forth last year, I would try to stay away from both of them this week. Until you know who Brady is targeting more often then I think you can probably find better options. And last but not least I am also starting BenJarvus Green-Ellis because I think the Patriots are going to resort to the ground game in the second half.
Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos
ESPN Preview
ESPN - Monday 10:15 EST
Line: Broncos by 3
Over/Under: 40.5
My Preview: The last game of the week, and the second half of a two game Monday Night Football on ESPN. These two teams are unpredictable with a lot of questions coming into the season. Can Kyle Orton start how he started last year? Can Brandon Lloyd be what he was last year? Can Knowshon Moreno stay healthy? Is Dumervil ready? What about the Raiders? Can Jason Campbell be what he was supposed to be last year? Can Jacoby Ford be a #1 wide receiver, or anyone else on the team for that matter? Is McFadden for real? Can Asomugha come close to being replaced? All of these are questions that can't be answered until we get to game time. They are also things that I will be looking for in this game.
Fantasy Preview- Let's just run through these real quick. Most of it is covered in the questions I am asking up above, but I'll just go position by position. I think Orton is a start this week against a very weak Oakland Raiders defense, as well as his favorite target Brandon Lloyd. There aren't any tight ends that are interesting in this match up, but I think that both running backs are must starts. We all know what Moreno did when he was healthy last year, and we also know how badly McFadden shredded this defense last year. Jacoby Ford may be a flex play if you need the upside, but in most cases he should be on your bench. And last is Willis McGahee who should find a spot on the pine this week until you see what kind of role he is going to have with his new team.
Prediction: Denver 23, Raiders 17
Thanks for reading everyone. I hope you enjoy the games this weekend. If you have any questions about your fantasy football team, or maybe you just want to talk football then shoot me an email or follow me on Twitter, @TheFFAddict. Enjoy your Sunday full of football!
Now that that game is in the past we can move on to Sunday. I'm going to give you my pick for every game, including my pick with the line, and the O/U. Not only that but I will also post the score and the fantasy impact in every game.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens
 |
| You've gotta start your studs in week one |
CBS - 1:00 PM EST
Line: Ravens by 1
Over/Under: 36
My Preview: I think the Ravens win this one although I have the Steelers winning the North. If Ravens can prevent turnovers then I think they will prevail, and I would take them with the spread too. I'm going to take the under on this game. The Steelers and Ravens always play very tight low scoring games, I would expect a little less than 36.
Fantasy Impact- I wouldn't like to have either one of these QBs this week, most people usually have better options. As for the running backs, I think everyone needs to start their studs and stop worrying about the bad match up. My sleeper for this game is Emanuel Sanders. I think he is going to find some holes in the defense and have a nice game. Also, those worried about Boldin, forget about it. He is still a decent flex play this week.
Prediction: Ravens 20, Steelers 13
Detroit Lions @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
ESPN Preview
FOX - 1:00 PM EST
Line: Buccaneers by 1
Over/Under: 41
My Preview: Believe it or not, this (in some people's minds) is a playoff match up. Neither one of these teams weren't in my playoffs, but I think both are very solid contenders. The Lions have a healthy Matthew Stafford, and for the Bucs it's another year of experience for quarterback Josh Freeman. This should be a good offense game, and I am going to go against the line and say that the Lions win this one. I think their offense is going to really impress a lot of people. I will also take the over on 41. Lions 30 - Buccaneers 24
 | ||
| Matthew Stafford is healthy, and ready to roll. |
Atlanta Falcons @ Chicago Bears
ESPN Preview
FOX - 1:00 PM EST
Line: Falcons by 2.5
Over/Under: 40.5
 |
| Matt Forte is a must start in all fantasy football formats this week |
Fantasy Impact: Matt Ryan should be a good fantasy option for this game, but Jay cutler might not. Both teams have good defenses, but are better in the rushing/pass rush game and don't have strong secondaries. I don't think I am starting any Bears WRs, while I would start Roddy White and possibly Julio Jones in the flex in a deep league. I'm starting both RBs. Barber may be held out of this games, which guarantees goal line carries for Forte, and a heavy load. I really like Forte this week. Neither TE should be in your starting lineup.
Predictions: Falcons 24 - Bears 16
Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City
ESPN Preview
CBS - 1:00 PM EST
Line: Chiefs by 5.5
Over/Under: 40
 |
| Charles had a great game against the Bills last year |
Fantasy Impact: Both QBs should not be in a standard league lineup. Charles had a very good game last year against the Bills, and I would expect another one this year. Bowe on the other hand did not, with only seven fantasy points. I am still starting Bowe this week no doubt. As for the Bills, I think you are starting Fred Jackson in your flex and playing Steve Johnson as a WR2. Both should be good options for week one. I think everyone should keep their eye on Ryan Fitzpatrick, a QB that is very far under the radar this year.
Prediction: Chiefs 27 - Bills 23
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans
ESPN Preview
CBS - 1:00 PM EST
Line: Texans by 8.5
Over/Under: 43.5
My Preview: No Manning. No glory for the Colts. This team is formed around Manning and without Peyton under center, things could get ugly for the Colts. This is definitely the chance for the Texans to end the Colts streak of playoff appearances at nine. I think the Texans have an extremely favorable match-up against 38 year old Kerry Collins, Peyton Manning's replacement. I know you are saying to yourself, "Manning? Replacement? Those don't belong together," But that's what the Colts have been forced to do in Indianapolis. Houston is going to spread the ball around and embarrass these Colts on Sunday.
 |
| Andre Johnson should have a good game. |
Prediction: Texans 38 - Colts 17.
Philadelphia Eagles @ St.Louis Rams
ESPN Preview
FOX - 1:00 PM EST
Line: Eagles by 4
Over/Under: 44
 |
| Keep Lance Kendricks on the bench for now. |
Fantasy Impact: This game has a lot of fantasy studs you are probably going to want to start. On the Eagles side you have Mike Vick playing a weak Rams pass defense; I ranked him #1 this week. You also have McCoy who may get a lot of catches because the rush that the Rams will be putting on Vick, and then Desean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin as well. For the Rams, fantasy owners should be keeping their eyes on Sam Bradford and Mike Sims-Walker, as well as up and coming tight end Lance Kendricks. The only guy I am starting for the Rams this week though is Steven Jackson.
Prediction: Eagles 30, Rams 20
Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns
ESPN Preview
CBS - 1:00 PM EST
Line: Cleveland by 6.5
Over/Under: 35.5
 |
| Will Jerome Simpson pick up where he left off? |
Fantasy Impact: There really aren't many guys to start in this game besides Peyton Hillis. The main thing I am watching is who the two quarterback's are going to target the most. I think for the Browns Brian Robiskie is going to get a lot of looks, and for the Bengals I think it will be Jerome Simpson. I think Jermaine Gresham will get quite a few looks from Dalton as well. The only two guys I am starting are Hillis and Cedric Benson. Everyone else has potential, but they aren't there yet.
Prediction: Browns 23, Bengals 10 - Browns are my Eliminator Pick of the Week
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
ESPN Preview
CBS - 1:00 PM EST
Line: Jaguars by 1
Over/Under: 35.5
 |
| Kenny Britt is a must start this week. |
Fantasy Impact: Unless Luke McCown can step up, I don't expect MJD to have a great game. You still have to start him, but don't expect too much. I think Marcedes Lewis value should stay the same, and he is still a top ten tight end, but it hurts the little value that Mike Thomas had, as well as Jason Hill. For the Titans, I think both Chris Johnson and Kenny Britt will have really good games against the weak Jaguars defense. I will also be watching tight end Jared Cook, and wide receiver Nate Washington.
Prediction: Titans 20, Jacksonville 10
New York Giants @ Washington Redskins
ESPN Preview
FOX - 4:15 PM EST
Line: Giants by 3
Over/Under: 38
 |
| You can expect to see a lot of this on Sunday. |
Fantasy Impact: Hakeem Nicks is going to go off this week, I really like him against the weak pass defense of the Redskins. Manningham should have a nice game as well. Although it is unknown how Coughlin is going to use Jacobs, I think Bradshaw is a must start, and Jacobs should be held on the bench, at least for now. For the Reskins, I think that Fred Davis (if Chris Cooley sits) and Moss could both have nice games this week, Grossman isn't awful, and those guys should still get targets. Hightower is worht a flex spot this week, but stay away from the other two (Helu and Torain) if you can.
Prediction: Giants 27, Redskins 16
Carolina Panthers @ Arizona Cardinals
ESPN Preview
FOX - 4:15 PM EST
Line: Cardinals by 6.5
Over/Under: 37
 |
| I'm excited to see how Roberts does with Kolb. |
Fantasy Impact: Kolb may be in some team's lineup this week, he is a very low end QB1, but Cam Newton should not be in any lineup and should be on the bench. Fitzgerald has a quarterback now and it will be good to see how he fares with Kolb, as well as my sleeper wide receiver Andre Roberts. For the Panthers, I want to see how their offense is going to do with Cam Newton. People should be starting Steve Smith, Larry Fitzgerald, DeAngelo Williams, and Johnathan Stewart and Beanie Wells should be decent flex plays this week.
Prediction: Cardinals 24, Panthers 13
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers
ESPN Preview
FOX - 4:15 PM EST
Line: 49ers by 5.5
Over/Under: 37.5
 |
| This guy's gotta be in your line up. |
Fantasy Impact: Neither QB is going to have much of a game and neither one should even be on a fantasy rosters. For the wide receivers, the only one I might be starting is Braylon Edwards. Sidney Rice is listed as doubtful and looks like he is going to sit this one out. I wouldn't start any Seattle wide receivers. I am starting both starting running backs though. Davis is an obvious start at TE, and Miller is a decent start at TE.
Prediction: 49ers 17, Seahawks 14
Minnesota Vikings @ San Diego Chargers
ESPN Preview
FOX - 4:15 PM EST
Line: San Diego by 8.5
Over/Under: 41.5
My Preview: One of the biggest and most predictable moves in the off-season was Donavan McNabb heading to Minnesota. Even without Sidney Rice there anymore, I think McNabb could have a decent season, and I know he can have one better than he did in Washington. Phillip Rivers is a lot of people's MVP pick right now. And I wouldn't doubt it considering he led the league in passing yards without his two top targets for a lot of the season. In this game, I am really looking for how Mike Tolbert and Ryan Matthews are going to be used in this offense. I'll also be watching how McNabb and Harvin connect in their first NFL game together. I think the Vikings might contend with this team for a while, but the Chargers are just too powerful for the
Fantasy Impact: With Kevin Williams out, I think both Chargers running backs are good starts this week. Antonio Gates looks like he will be ready to go, and Vincent Jackson is always a must start. I think everyone who has Floyd should wait and see how the Chargers are going to use their WR2 this year, and then maybe activate him in weeks to come. For the Vikings I would play Harvin with a flex spot, and you are obviously going to be starting Adrian Peterson.
Prediction: Chargers 30, Vikings 20
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Jets
ESPN Preview
NBC - 8:20 PM EST
Line: Jets by 5.5
Over/Under: 40.5
 |
| Watch for this guy on Sunday Night |
Fantasy Impact: A couple of the people I am sitting in this game may surprise you. I am going to sit both of the running backs. I think both will probably get shut down by the opposing defense. I am starting Austin, Dez Bryant, and Santonio Holmes. The best performance from this game will probably by Jason Witten because the Jets just don't have the linebackers to cover him. I am sitting Plaxico Burress and Dustin Keller until they can prove to me they are start-worthy. I think both of the quarterbacks are decent options this week, but Sanchez has the most upside as this may not be Romo's week.
Predictions: Cowboys 27, Jets 24 - Game of the Week
New England Patriots @ Miami Dolhpins
ESPN Preview
ESPN - Monday 7:00 PM EST
Line: Patriots by 6.5
Over/Under: 45.5
 |
| The off-season acquisition is going to payoff in week one |
Fantasy Impact: The Dolphins have a pretty mediocre pass defense, so I think Ochocinco and Welker are both starts. I expect the Dolphins to go down early, and then start throwing the ball a lot. That's why I like Chad Henne if you are scrambling for a quarterback this week. I also like Reggie Bush since Daniel Thomas is not going to play in this one, as well as Brandon Marshall. For the Patriots tight ends that went back and forth last year, I would try to stay away from both of them this week. Until you know who Brady is targeting more often then I think you can probably find better options. And last but not least I am also starting BenJarvus Green-Ellis because I think the Patriots are going to resort to the ground game in the second half.
Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos
ESPN Preview
ESPN - Monday 10:15 EST
Line: Broncos by 3
Over/Under: 40.5
My Preview: The last game of the week, and the second half of a two game Monday Night Football on ESPN. These two teams are unpredictable with a lot of questions coming into the season. Can Kyle Orton start how he started last year? Can Brandon Lloyd be what he was last year? Can Knowshon Moreno stay healthy? Is Dumervil ready? What about the Raiders? Can Jason Campbell be what he was supposed to be last year? Can Jacoby Ford be a #1 wide receiver, or anyone else on the team for that matter? Is McFadden for real? Can Asomugha come close to being replaced? All of these are questions that can't be answered until we get to game time. They are also things that I will be looking for in this game.
 |
| Can he perform at Mile High again? |
Prediction: Denver 23, Raiders 17
Thanks for reading everyone. I hope you enjoy the games this weekend. If you have any questions about your fantasy football team, or maybe you just want to talk football then shoot me an email or follow me on Twitter, @TheFFAddict. Enjoy your Sunday full of football!
September 8, 2011
Week One Love/Hate
Love/Hate
Week 1
Football
season is back. Food, games, beer (well, pop for me), but that means you have
to make the toughest decisions for your fantasy line up. That’s why I’m here;
to tell you who I like for this week.
Pretty much, every week I will give you two guys for
each position in the love and the hate category. It will start with
quarterbacks, then running backs, wide receivers, and then tight ends, and
every once in a while I might throw in a defense if I like them a lot.
Quarterbacks
Love
Chad
Henne vs New England- Even though I think New England will
dominate this game, I think Henne could have a decent game. He is going to be
playing from behind (most likely) which means the Dolphins will be airing the
ball out. Besides that point, Last year in the one full game that Henne played
New England he went 28 for 38 with 305 yards and tossed two touchdowns. The
only downside? Three interceptions. Not a great game anymore. If he can
eliminate or even cut back on those mistakes, Henne could have a real nice
game.
Eli
Manning vs Washington- Last year Washington had the 31st
ranked pass defense in the NFL. Manning didn’t have great games against the
Redskins last year, but I think he may fair better this year. Manning didn’t
have Hakeem Nicks in week 13 or week 17 of last year: the two times that the
Giants faced the Redskins. I expect Manning to go for 300 yards a couple
touchdowns and maybe a pick.
Other Nominees: Kyle Orton, Matthew Stafford, and
Kevin Kolb
Hate
Ben
Roethlisberger @ Baltimore- Ben has never been a great
fantasy option when he plays in Baltimore. Last year he threw for 253 yards as
well as tossing a touchdown and a pick. With the extremely low scoring affairs
with these two teams it is hard to start anyone. I figure most people have a
better option than Big Ben this week though.
Jay
Culter vs Atlanta- I know this isn’t a great sit, for most
people he is already sitting on your bench. Atlanta doesn’t have a stellar pass
defense; they finished 22nd in pass defense last year. He also lost
a big target in Greg Olsen to Carolina. I don’t see Cutler having a great game
this week.
Running
Backs
Love
Beanie
Wells vs Carolina- Whisenhunt has given Wells the green
light for Sunday, and that may not stick for long. I think you should use
Beanie with a favorable matchup before he has to share more of his carries.
BenJarvus
Green-Ellis @ Miami- This is another pick that
depends on if the Patriots can jump out on top of the Dolphins. But I don’t
pick Lawfirm solely on that. He also had two pretty good matchups against the
Dolphins last year. I would expect him to put up double digits and he should be
a strong flex play this week, maybe even a RB2.
Hate
Felix
Jones @ NYJ- Even as a Cowboys fan, I have to admit: the
Cowboys’ offense will struggle on Sunday Night Football. They may shut down the Cowboys pass defense
with Revis and Cromartie. With a rush defense like the Jets it doesn’t look
like Jones will have much fantasy value this week.
Mark
Ingram @ Green Bay- I’m not going to take too much time on
this. They did not have a great rush defense last year, but they only allowed
six TDs. We all know Ingram will be the goal line back for the Saints, but with
so few TDs, it’s unlikely he finds the end zone. Keep Ingram on the pine for
Thursday
Shonn
Greene vs Dallas- Yes. I’m sitting both running backs in
the same game. The Cowboys have a pretty good running back and I’m not buying
Greene quite yet. I don’t really expect him to get a ton of carries. I still
expect him to be in a split with Ladanian Tomlinson.
Wide Receivers
Love
Kenny
Britt @ Jacksonville- We don’t know what Britt and
Hasselbeck have together yet, but last year when Britt played he was fairly
effective. In ten games he had nine touchdowns with a much less effective
quarterback then he has now. With a great matchup like this, you’ve gotta start
Britt.
Marques
Colston @ Green Bay- Green Bay was the fifth best pass
defense in the league last year, so why do I love Colston? He is the only WR
that should be on the field for the entire game with Lance Moore missing this
game. I think Colston is going to see a lot of targets on Thursday night from
Drew Brees.
Santana
Moss
vs New York Giants- The Giants pass defense is in mayhem with all the injuries
right now. I know Grossman is the quarterback, but he hasn’t looked awful in
preseason and I think Moss could have a nice game. I think Moss could have
around ten targets from Beck this week, and he may even find the end zone.
Hate
Reggie
Wayne @ Houston- This is a great matchup for Wayne and the
Colt’s receivers, but I don’t think that Collins is going to find Wayne all
that often. I think the Cotls will run a lot, and also target Clark and Collie
quite a bit. I would play Wayne as a flex at best this week.
Sidney
Rice @ San Francisco- With the injury that is going on
with him, he may not even play. Even if he does play, it isn’t the greatest
matchup and he doesn’t have a great quarterback. It has been said that if Rice sits
this game out, then Ben Obomanu.
Tight
Ends
Love
Marcedes
Lewis vs Tennessee- I’m going to stick with my theory
here: when a tight end (and only a tight end) have a bad quarterback starting,
it will not affect them. Last year he didn’t score a single touchdown against
the Titans last year. He also has the matchup favoring him. The Titans are the
25th fantasy defense against tight ends. Maybe Lewis can find the
end zone this week.
Hate
Dustin
Keller vs Dallas- Not that this guy is starting for a lot
of fantasy teams, but if he is, I don’t like him. He is playing a good defense
against TEs and I think that Sanchez will expose the Cowboys’ weakness in the
defensive back position, not looking for Keller. Cowboys only allowed five touchdowns
all of last year. Keep Keller on the bench this week.
Thanks for reading everyone; I hope that you enjoyed
it. If you have any questions about fantasy football, or anything football
related really, you can contact me on Twitter @TheFFAddict, and feel free to
email me cshardy@att.net.
September 7, 2011
Week One Fantasy Football Rankings
Like I said a few days ago, I'm going to be posting my rankings for week one here on Wednesday and here I am. I'm going to rank 25 quarterbacks, 45 running backs, 50 wide receivers, 25 tight ends, and 20 defenses - screw kickers. These will come out every Wednesday, and they are non PPR; tomorrow will be my starts and sits of the week. I highly suggest you use this to activate your line up for this week. I'm just as excited as you are for Sunday! If you have any questions, comments, or concerns, shoot me an email at cshardy@att.net or I am always on Twitter @TheFFAddict and I would be happy to answer any of your fantasy questions.
Just a heads up for the schedule of this blog now that the season has started. Monday I won't be posting, but rather waiting for the Monday Night Football game. On Tuesday there will be a post of what I did/didn't like that week, including some news. On Wednesday, as I mentioned earlier, my rankings for that week will be up. Every Thursday I will give you some starts and sits (you may or may not of seen them in my rankings). Then, depending on my personal schedule, on either Friday or Saturday I will post my pick, predicted score, and some analysis. Let's get started with the rankings now.
QBs
1. Michael Vick @ St.Louis
2. Tom Brady @ Miami
3. Aaron Rodgers vs New Orleans
4. Philip Rivers vs Min
5. Drew Brees @ Green Bay
6. Matt Schaub @ Indianapolis
7. Matthew Stafford @ Tampa Bay
8. Matt Ryan @ Chicago
9. Kyle Orton vs Oakland
10. Eli Manning vs Washington
11. Kevin Kolb vs Carolina
12. Tony Romo @ New York Jets
13. Josh Freeman vs Detroit
14. Ben Roethlisberger @ Baltimore
15. Matt Cassel vs Buffalo
16. Jay Cutler vs Atlanta
17. Joe Flacco vs Pittsburgh
18. Mark Sanchez vs Dallas
19. Ryan Fitzpatrick vs Kansas City
20. Colt McCoy vs Cincinnati
21. Rex Grossman vs New York Giants
22. Chad Henne vs Patriots
23. Sam Bradford vs Philadelphia
24. Donavan McNabb vs San Diego
25. Jason Campbell @ Denver
RBs
1. Jamaal Charles vs Buffalo
2. Adrian Peterson @ San Diego
3. Chris Johnson @ Jacksonville
4. Darren McFadden @ Denver
5. Frank Gore vs Seattle
6. Arian Foster vs Indianapolis*
7. Lesean McCoy @St.Louis
8. Peyton Hillis vs Cincinnati
9. Rashard Mendenhall @ Baltimore
10. Maurice Jones-Drew vs Tennessee
11. Ray Rice vs Pittsburgh
12. Matt Forte vs Atlanta
13. Michael Turner @ Chicago
14. Ahmad Bradshaw @ Washington
15. Knowshon Moreno vs Oakland
16. Legarrette Blount vs Detroit
17. DeAngelo Williams @ Arizona
18. Steven Jacskon vs Philadelphia
19. Beanie Wells vs Carolina
20. BenJarvus Green-Ellis
21. Jahvid Best @ Tampa Bay
22. Cedric Benson @ Cleveland
23. Fred Jackson @ Kansas City
24. Shonn Greene vs Dallas
25. Ryan Matthews vs Minnesota
26. Felix Jones @ New York Jets
27. Joseph Addai @ Houston
28. Tim Hightower vs New York Giants
29. Johnathan Stewart @ Arizona
30. Marshawyn Lynch @ San Francisco
31. Mark Ingram @ Green Bay
32. Ryan Grant vs New Orleans
33. Mike Tolbert vs Minnesota
34. James Starks vs New Orleans
35. Reggie Bush vs New England
36. Brandon Jacobs @ Washington
37. Pierre Thomas @ Green Bay
38. Willis McGahee vs Oakland
39. Thomas Jones vs Buffalo
40. Michael Bush @ Denver
41. Tashard Choice @ New York Jets
42. Ben Tate vs Indianapolis*
43. Daniel Thomas vs New England
44. Ladanian Tomlinson vs Dallas
45. CJ Spiller @ Kansas City
*= If Foster is able to play, and expected to start then he remains in this spot and Ben Tate stays there too. If Foster is not able to play, then Tate would move to 24th and Derrick Ward would take Ben Tate's spot in the rankings and Foster would drop out.
WRs
1.Andre Johnson vs Indianapolis
2. Hakeem Nicks @ Washington
3. Calvin Johnson @ Green Bay
4. Larry Fitzgerald vs Carolina
5. Roddy White @ Chicago
6. Greg Jennings vs New Orleans
7. Vincent Jackson vs Minnesota
8. Dwayne Bowe vs Buffalo
9. Santonio Holmes vs Dallas
10. Mike Wallace @ Baltimore
11. Brandon Lloyd vs Oakland
12. Desean Jackson vs St.Louis
13. Kenny Britt @ Jacksonville
14. Mike Williams (Tampa) vs Detroit
15. Miles Austin @ New York Jets
16. Marques Colston @ Green Bay
17. Brandon Marshall vs New England
18. Dez Bryant @ New York Jets
19. Reggie Wayne @ Houston
20. Mario Manningham @ Washington
21. Wes Welker @ Miami
22. Jeremy Maclin @ St.Louis
23. Steve Johnson @ Kansas City
24. Santana Moss vs New York Giants
25. Mario Manningham @ Washington
26. Anquan Boldin vs Pittsburgh
27. Sidney Rice @ San Francisco
28. Chad Ochocinco @ Miami
29. Percy Harvin @ San Diego
30. Steve Smith (Carolina) @ Arizona
31. Austin Collie @ Houston
32. Mike Thomas vs Tennessee
33. Robert Meachem @ Green Bay
34. Roy Williams vs Atlanta
35. Jacoby Ford @ Denver
36. Julio Jones @ Chicago
37. Emmanuel Sanders @ Baltimore
38. Plaxico Burress vs Dallas
39. Braylon Edwards vs Seattle
40. Mike Sims-Walker vs Philadelphia
41. Johnny Knox vs Atlanta
42. Jerome Simpson @ Cleveland
43. Davone Bess @ New England
44. Nate Burleson @ Tampa Bay
45. Pierre Garcon @ Houston
46. Brian Robiskie vs Cincinnati
47. AJ Green @ Cleveland
48. Danny Amendola vs Philadelphia
49. Anthony Armstrong vs New York Giants
50. Lee Evans vs Pittsburgh
TEs
1. Jason Witten @ New York Jets
2. Antonio Gates vs Minnesota
3. Jermichael Finley vs New Orleans
4. Dallas Clark @ Houston
5. Vernon Davis vs Seattle
6. Jimmy Graham @ Green Bay
7. Owen Daniels vs Indianapolis
8. Marcedes Lewis vs Tennessee
9. Brandon Pettigrew @ Tampa Bay
10. Kellen Winslow vs Detroit
11. Greg Olsen @ Arizona
12. Rob Gronkowski @ Miami
13. Zach Miller @ San Fransisco
14. Aaron Hernandez @ Miami
15. Todd Heap vs Carolina
16. Dustin Keller vs Dallas
17. Tony Gonzalez @ Chicago
18. Jermaine Gresham @ Cleveland
19. Lance Kendricks vs Philadelphia
20. Brent Celek @ St.Louis
All rankings based on an ESPN standard fantasy football scoring. Non-PPR, QB, RB, RB, RB/WR, WR,WR, TE.
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