Week 9 Bank/Tank

By: Christian Hardy

Now we're here. The officially halfway point of the 2011 NFL season. Week nine is packed full of some great games, so let's get right to it.


I'd like to run over what this article is all about. "Bank" is players I love this week and "Tank" are the players that are going to, well, tank this week. The numbers next to the players are, first, my ranking, followed by ESPN's consensus ranking. Let's get started, shall we?

Quarterbacks
Bank
Matt Ryan @ Indianapolis (7th, 8th) - What a turn around Indy has had without Peyton Manning has had his neck surgery. They are now 0-8 and their team as a whole looks worse than ever. Look, Matt Ryan hasn't been great this year (16th ranked fantasy quarterback), but he hasn't been terrible either. If it wasn't for his eight point performance against Chicago and six point game against the undefeated Packers, then he is tied with Ben Roethlisberger as the ninth best fantasy quarterback (15.6 points per game). Against the weak Indy pass defense that is 29th in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks, you bet I am starting him this week.

Matt Cassel vs Miami (8th, 13th) - Interesting stat for you here: Matt Cassel's best month in terms of passer rating is November. Throughout his career, Cassel has a 83.0 passer rating; in November, Cassel has thrown for a passer rating of 93.1 (his second best month is October with 82.2). That, along with the 31st ranked fantasy pass defense of the Dolphins is starting to look like a real juicy matchup for Matt Cassel.

Tony Romo vs Seattle (4th, 6th) - Romo has a 110.8 passer rating in two games against Seattle, despite the botched snap on a 19 yard chip shot, that, in return, lost the game for the Cowboys in the 2007 playoffs (2006 season). But this year, Romo is at home against the Seahawks for the first time since 2008. In that particular game, Romo threw for over 300 yards and three touchdowns. Pretty impressive, right? Definitely start Romo this week, considering the very vulnerable pass defense of the Seahawks.

Extra: Mark Sanchez @ Buffalo (10th, 15th)

Tank

The story of Tebow as a starter

Tim Tebow @ Oakland (15th, 12th) - Well, I have completely lost the love for this guy. After two (and a half) weeks his stat line is...horrific.A 46.1 completion percentage 412 yards, and a 75.1 passer rating. Just like I said: Horrific.Oakland might have a bad pass defense, but so did Miami. Stay away from Tebow if you can this week. (Warning: This could easily blow up in your face and my face.)

Joe Flacco vs Pittsburgh (24th, 18th) - Flacco has turned the ball over eight times in seven games against the Steelers. Along with that, he has only scored nine touchdowns and 215 yards per game. And, wait, there's more. The Steelers allow just 11.5 fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this year, which is seventh in the league. There is no way I am putting Flacco in my lineup this week, despite a great game from him in week one of this season against the Steelers.

Running Backs
Bank
Shonn Greene @ Buffalo (10th, 13th) - Greene has twenty carries or more in three straight games and in every game this season he has 10 carries or more. Lead back? I think so. With those type of carries, Greene is an every week start, and it only makes it better when he has a great matchup. Greene plays the Bills who allow 16.7 points per game to opposing running backs this season (including the whopping three points that they allowed to the Redskins last week). To go along with all of this, in the past five games against the Jets, the Bills have given up over 200 rushing yards. Plus, the Bills will be without Kyle Williams which is a great run stopper for this defense. I expect a 15-20 point game for Greene here, and maybe even the game where he finally breaks out.

Steven Jackson blew up for three touchdowns last week

Steven Jackson vs Arizona (6th, 9th) - What are the Rams going on Bradford's first game back from that ankle sprain? I'm pretty sure that they are going to give the ball to their top playmaker who goes by the name of Steven Jackson. Jackson led the Rams to their first win of the season over the red-hot Saints, and so why can't he do it against this defense? The Cardinals allow just over 17 points per game to opposing running backs, and no one by Steven Jackson is going to be touching the rock out of the backfield for this team. Get Steven Jackson in your lineup this week, just like I suggested last week.

Extra: Jackie Battle vs Miami (12th, 20th) - Miami has a decent fantasy rush defense (10th), but with the type of carries he is getting, it is hard not to like him.

Tank
Ryan Torain vs San Francisco (41st, 30th) - I loved this guy for two weeks, with two great matchups. Now he takes on the 49ers, who have the best fantasy defense against opposing running backs. Torain has just three points combined in his last three games against Philadelphia, Carolina, and Buffalo; three of the worst fantasy run defenses. At this point, you can drop Torain, but I am definitely keeping him on my bench.


Chris Johnson vs Cincinnati (32nd, 21st) - What a terrible season for CJ (The "2K" part of it has been revoked, by me). Javon Ringer is now stealing his carries, and Johnson can't even bust through an open hole. He is one of the biggest draft busts that I have seen without injury outside of Randy Moss last year. To go along with that, the Bengals, Johnson's week nine opponent, has only allowed 14 points per game to opposing running backs, which is the tenth best in the league. Keep Johnson on your bench until he can put some points up.


Extra: BenJarvus Green-Ellis vs New York Giants (28th, 17th, also is questionable with a toe injury), Rashard Mendenhall vs Baltimore (24th, 12th)

Wide Receivers
Bank
Miles Austin vs Seattle (3, 13) - The Cowboys looked terrible against the Eagles last week, so you might think that I am crazy for thinking he will have a big game, but hear me out. Last game against the Seahawks, Austin had 12 fantasy points in a standard league, not bad. Austin only has 16 fantasy points in his last three games combined, but the Seahawks allow 22.1 points per game to opposing wide receivers, tenth worst in the league. I expect a huge bounce back from Romo in this one, and I'm feeling so Austin coming along as well.

You know, it puzzles me why he would wear a mouthpiece that big.

Jeremy Maclin vs Chicago (7th, 14th) - I don't think Maclin gets the credit for what he has been doing. For the first time in his career, he has put up consistent numbers on a week to week basis, including great fantasy numbers. After week one, Maclin has not dropped under five points and he now has three straight games of ten points or more, while Desean Jackson has just seven points in his last two games. I think you can call this one more of a hunch that any thing; that, and the rankers at ESPN are a little too low on him. Matthew Berry noted in his week nine Love/Hate that the Bears have been dropping back into deep coverage more often than not, so they will be defending the big play from Desean Jackson while Maclin keeps getting underneath. (I just read the complete excerpt from Berry, and this has a lot of the same content in it, but I did not mean to copy at all, just a heads up.)


Extra: Santonio Holmes @ Buffalo (14th, 24th) - You can call this one a hunch. It only helps that Burress has a back injury.

Tank
Steve Johnson vs New York Jets (35th, 21st) - Destination: Revis Island. Darrelle Revis has had a tremendous bounce back from 2010, and our friends over at ProFootballFocus.com did an entire story on it. I suggest you check it out. It really is remarkable what Revis has done this year, and if he shadows Johnson all day, then I would go with the under on three catches.

John Skelton es no bueno.

Larry Fitzgerald vs St.Louis (14th, 5th)  - I'm not jumping on the Fitzgerald train just because he is playing the Rams, who are the fourth worst fantasy defense against opposing wide receivers. John Skelton will likely be the starter for the Cardinals with Kolb listed as questionable this week, and Skelton never really hooked up with Fitzgerald. Last year, in the three games that Skelton started and finished, Fitzgerald never caught a touchdown pass, and he only averaged 77.3 yards per game. Even against this St.Louis team who has struggled against the pass, I still don't like Fitzgerald as anymore than a number two.

Extra: Vincent Jackson vs Green Bay (23rd, 11th), Brandon Marshall @ Kansas City (26th, 15th)


Tight Ends
Bank

My second Eagles' pass catcher I love this week.

Brent Celek vs Chicago (7th, 16th) - Now remember, Celek is listed as questionable, but I fully expect him to play. If he does play, I am completely buying in on this guy. He now has a touchdown in each of his last two games, including eleven receptions in those two games. The Bears are the worst team against opposing tight ends, allowing 11.4 points per game in that category. Celek is a great start right now, especially if a guy like Jermichael Finley is letting you down.

Extra: Jake Ballard @ New England (10th, 15th)


Tank
Jermichael Finley @ San Diego (11th, 7th) - This guy has fallen off tremendously since week three with only about four points per game since that 26 point performance (with three touchdowns). The Chargers have an average defense against opposing tight ends (7.1 points per game), but nothing to get exciting about. If you drafted this guy in the first four rounds, well, I'm sorry, because that means you probably don't have a replacement for him.


Thanks for reading. I'll be back tomorrow with my game analysis from every game in the NFL. Until then, as always, you can check out my fantasy rankings that have completely updated according to injury, and you can also check out the injury report which sums up all of the injury news from every day. For any fantasy questions, feel free to hit up my twitter or my email. See you all on Saturday!


 

Week 5 Bank/Tank

Hallelujah! The bye weeks are among us! Actually, it’s not all giddy for everyone. I mean, some owners are scrambling for a guy to replace all three of their running backs, because they don’t know how to draft. Or someone might be looking for that quarterback who is going to have a great game and is a free agent in their league. I know you are thinking Tavaris Jackson, Andy Dalton, or Matt Cassel; all of which are wrong. But, I wouldn’t want to just give it away so let’s get started.

Quarterbacks

Bank

Cam Newton vs New Orleans – Look, there is almost no way you can sit this guy right now. He is playing out this world, and even more so for a rookie. This guy is going be around for awhile, and whether you like it or not, he is going to be, or at least looks like he is going to be, an elite quarterback. Against a weak New Orleans defense (19^th in the league), I think you can expect a big game for Cam Newton again.

Alex Smith vs Tampa Bay – Yes. The quarterback for the 49ers. The same Alex Smith that I have ranked 32^nd this year in my quarterback rankings. If your quarterback is on bye (Tony Romo, Joe Flacco) and you are scrambling to pick up someone, then this is your guy. Tampa Bay is ranked 21^st in the pass and have allowed seven touchdowns in the first four games this year. That doesn’t mix well with a dose of Alex Smith (I chuckled as I typed this…). Last week Smith had 291 yards and two touchdowns against a “stout” Eagles’ pass defense, so why not against the Bucs? Look out for Alex Smith this week.

Extra: Donovan McNabb vs Arizona

Tank

Ben Roethlisberger vs Tennessee – The foot isn’t a huge concern to me, but the way Ben has been playing is. Roethlisberger. He hasn’t scored over 15 fantasy points this year (against Seattle he scored 15) and the way Tennessee is playing, I wouldn’t want to play my quarterback against him. Tennessee has allowed just four touchdowns (one per game) this year, and Big Ben has only thrown just three touchdowns. On top of all of that, he has a foot injury. Is that enough to convince you to sit Ben Roethlisberger?

Matt Schaub vs Oakland – When Andre Johnson was not in the game last year, Mat Schaub was everything but fantastic. He threw for 755 yards, four touchdowns, and an interception in the three games without Andre Johnson. I’m not saying he is going to completely suck this week, but he isn’t going to be the Matt Schaub you are wanting. Hopefully you have a better option this week.

Running Backs

Bank

Joseph Addai vs Kansas City – Remember those talks of Delone Carter taking over the role in Indianapolis? I think that’s over now.  The last two weeks Addai has been taking the heavy workload for the Colts. Addai has had 28 carries to Delone Carter’s 11, and I’m not just trying to sugar coat this: in three games Addai has 42 carries to Carter’s 22. While Carter still has five carries in the redzone to Addai’s four, all of Addai’s carries in the redzone have come in the last two weeks and in that time frame, Carter has zero. With the matchup, I really love Addai this week.

Cedric Benson @ Jacksonville – Maybe Benson still has one more game left in him before he is suspended by the NFL, but nevertheless, this guy is getting a huge workload. In the last two weeks, Benson is tied for the most rushes in the redzone (9). That is one-fourth of his carries in that time frame. But his performing outside of the redzone too with a 4.5 yards per rush average this season. With Jacksonville dead center (16^th) in rushing defense, I think Benson could have a real nice game. To top it all off, I expect the Bengals to get up early in this game and pound the ball (but don’t count AJ Green out).

Extra: Ahmad Bradshaw vs Seattle, Thomas Jones @ Indianapolis

Tank

Ryan Grant and James Starks @ Atlanta – Neither one of these guys is going to get the main workload, and even if one of them does wind up getting the bulk of the carries, you can’t guess who it is going to be! With a tough matchup at the Georgia Dome (10^th rushing defense),  I ‘m not going to be playing either of these. And it’s not just that; I think this game will be a shootout, and when Aaron Rodgers gets into a shootout, he isn’t going to be handing the ball off.

Michael Turner vs Green Bay – Make it a sweep! I’m sitting them all in Atlanta! There have only been 77 rushes attempted against Green Bay through three weeks, and it clearly isn’t working. They are the number two rush defense in the league and are allowing just 3.7 yards per rush. Like I said, I think this game will be a shootout, I would try to sit Michael Turner this week at all costs.

Extra: Johnathan Stewart vs New Orleans, DeAngelo Williams vs New Orleans

Wide Receivers

Bank

Julio Jones vs Green Bay – The Packers already have a bad pass defense, but they are even worse against “supporting casts”. In week one it was Devery Henderson, then it was Johnathan Stewart, next it was Sanzenbacher, and finally it was Eric Decker. So my point is; can the Packers defend a physical and extremely talented guy like Julio Jones who has had an increasing role in the offense? I doubt it.

Santonio Holmes @ New England – You all know I have an extreme bromance with Santonio, and we also know that Mark Sanchez is no Tom Brady. Every time these two teams play it is a shootout, and the two quarterbacks throw…a lot. The Patriots are dead last in the league in passing defense. They can’t stop anything, not even “The Sanchise” and Santonio Holmes.

Extra: Percy Harvin vs Arizona

Tank

Denarius Moore @ Houston – Look, I’m scared of Johnathan Joseph shutting this guy down, that is why I have Darrius Heyward-Bey against an injured Kareem Jackson ranked higher. Heyward-Bey plays on the right side more often, and Joseph in on the left more often so I think we are going to see Moore go up against Joseph more than we see him against Jackson.

Mario Manningham vs Seattle – I have preached Victor Cruz, and I have preached on and on. From preseason sensation, to that player who was given that opportunity to finally see the playing field. Cruz is extremely talented, and once he was given this chance I knew he would take advantage of it. I know the offensive coordinator said that Manningham still has that spot, but that is just going to give Cruz the room he needs in the slot to run free! I still think Manningham has a ton of talent, I just think that Victor Cruz has more of it.

Tight Ends

Bank

Owen Daniels vs Oakland – With no Andre Johnson, Daniels and his receivers are going to have to step up. With the way Daniels has be playing, and with Schaub not finding Jacoby Jones or Kevin Walter very much this year, Owen Daniels is going to have to step up his game, and his stat line will show it.

Extra: Jared Cook @ Pittsburgh

Tank

Dustin Keller @ New England – He has flopped once again. In his last two games he hasn’t done much for your fantasy team, and even though New England can’t stop the pass, they sure can stop the tight end. In week two they shut down Antonio Gates, and in other weeks tight ends haven’t found many holes in their defense. Sit Keller this week, I’m confident that you can find better options.

Thanks for checking out the week five Bank and Tank. I will be back tomorrow (Saturday) with my game picks along with all of that other good stuff that I do on Saturdays, so be sure to check that out. If you have any fantasy football questions (even a simple,”Who do I start?”) then feel free to check me out on Twitter for shorter questions, or hit me up on the email for longer questions that are quite a big larger than that of a tweet. If you don’t come back tomorrow, make sure to comeback on Sunday morning for all of the latest on who you need to get out of your lineups and who you need to stick in there on the Injury Report page. And one last thing: check out ReclinerQB.com for some great and hysterical writing from Matt Prendergast. Thanks, and I will see you tomorrow.