Week 9 Game Analysis

By: Christian Hardy

The first half of the NFL season has breezed right by us. It's like it was never even here; unless you are a fan of the Bills, 49ers, Bengals. But through eight games, we already know who will be forgetting this season: The Colts, the Dolphins, the Cardinals, and the Rams, all of whom are in the "Suck for Luck" sweepstakes. Week nine is shaping up to be a real good week for football addicts (such as myself) that is full of great divisional games.

 This week, I have my entire crew joining me with their picks for this weeks games. Gabriel Harber (writer of the pickups article) will be a part of it, Taylor Stuber is back for his second week, and Zach Jacobson will join us with his picks. The lines can change before gametime, so make sure to check those. I love the ProFootballFocus previews and recaps, so if you click on the game title, the link will take you to the preview done by PFF. Let's go ahead and get this preview started.

Atlanta Falcons @ Indianapolis Colts
1:00 PM EST - FOX
Line: Falcons by 6.5
Over/Under:45.5

Start

All Your Falcons - Like I said last week, the Colts have a really terrible defense. They have allowed the most passing touchdowns in the league with fifteen, as well as five more on the ground. Matt Ryan, Michael Turner, Roddy White, Julio Jones, and Tony Gonzalez (if healthy) should all feast on this defense this week.

Sit
All of Your Colts - Sure, Atlanta has given up 17 touchdowns on the year, but does that even matter? The Colts have scored only four touchdowns in the last three weeks, so I think it is safe to say you can sit all of your Colts. Garcon could have a nice game, with the amount of passes he gets, but he hasn't scored a touchdown in three weeks now. Keep all of these guys on your bench.

Christian's Pick: Falcons 27, Colts 13
Gabe's Pick: Falcons 27, Colts 10
Taylor's Pick: Falcons 31, Colts 17
Zach's Pick: Falcons 38, Colts 14

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints
1:00 PM EST - Fox
Line: Saints by 8
Over/Under: 50

Start
Drew Brees - He was a huge disappointment last week against the Rams, as he put up a season low 12 points. I think we will see a huge turn around this week in a huge divisional game for the Saints. Last time against the Buccaneers, despite three interceptions and no touchdowns, Brees still has 15 fantasy points. With no Ingram, I see Brees throwing around 40 times, and at least two of those throws being touchdowns.

LeGarrette Blount - In the last four weeks, the Saints have allowed 20 points to opposing running backs per game. with Earnest Graham out for the year, we could see over 20 touches for Blount in this game. Last time he received twenty carries or more, he rushed for over 100 yards and found the end zone against the Colts. Blount is a must start this week.

Sit
Saints' Wide Receivers behind Colston -  Well, let's run through this real quick. In the last three weeks, Robert Meachem, Lance Moore, and Devery Henderson have 27 points combined, and half of those points came from Moore's week eight performance which included a garbage time touchdown. If you are starting one then it has to be Moore, but I would stay away from these guys if you can.

Josh Freeman - Freeman has thrown six interceptions in his last three games, including four in the game across the pond against the Bears. Freeman has been very suh-par this year. He has only two games with twenty points or more (one of which came against New Orleans) and the rest of his games have consisted of less than fifteen fantasy points. I think the Bucs are going to be "run first" in this game unless they go down early, so Freeman is safe to keep on your bench for now.

Christian's Pick: Saints 24, Buccaneers 20
Gabe's Pick: Buccaneers 27, Saints 24
Taylor's Pick: Saints 38, Buccaneers 24
Zach's Pick: Saints 28, Buccaneers 24

Cleveland Browns @ Houston Texans
1:00 PM EST - CBS
Line: Texans by 10.5
Over/Under: 41 

Start
Owen Daniels - With no Andre Johnson, Daniels could see a lot of targets in this game. Without Andre, he really hasn't done much with only five and a half points per game and no touchdowns, but the Browns have allowed 8.5 points per game this year to opposing tight ends, including five touchdowns on the season. The Browns really haven't played any team with a spectacular tight end (Dallas Clark is probably the most talented of the bunch), so if they get Daniels involved then he could be in for a good day.

Arian Foster - Who can only play five of eight weeks and still be the sixth fantasy running back? Leave it up to Foster. The guy has been practically impossible to slow down this year, and what makes you think the Browns are going to be able to do it? Foster has scored seventeen points or more in four of his five games he was healthy (including a forty point performance against the Tennessee). No doubt Foster should be in your lineup this week, and for a long time coming.

Sit
Greg Little - How much of a disappointment has this guy been. The number one wide receiver spot was put onto his plate, and he has done absolutely nothing with it. He still lacks a touchdown this year, and he has failed to hit double digits a single time this year. I'm not even sure that Little is worth a roster spot at this point, and this week, against Johnathan Joseph, he could really struggle. Keep Little on the bench.

Browns Running Backs - News flash: Peyton Hillis and Montario Hardesty are both gone for "at least two weeks", so Chris Ogbannaya is your starter. Excited? Yeah, neither am I. The Texans allow just 13.6 fantasy points to opposing running backs, and even though Ogbannaya will carry the load, I highly doubt he finds his way into more than ten points, or even eight for that matter. Keep "The Silent G" on the bench for this week.

Christian's Pick: Texans 31, Browns 13
Gabe's Pick: Texans 28, Browns 13
Taylor's Pick: Texans 30, Browns 13
Zach's Pick: Texans 34, Browns 17

New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills
1:00 PM EST - CBS
Line: Bills by 2.5
Over/Under: 44.5

Start
Santonio Holmes - When you see the Bills on your schedule, you know you are in for a good game. Holmes has been mediocre at times with less than five points in two of his last four games, which is uncharacteristic for Holmes. The Bills allow over 21 points per game to oppposing wide receivers, which include 36 points performances from Philadelphia and New England. Look for Holmes to have a big game in this one.

Shonn Greene - With twenty carries in each of his last three games, you're damn right I like Greene going against the Bills defense. More in my Bank/Tank.

Sit
Stevie Johnson - Revis has only allowed ten catches this year.  More of that in my Bank/Tank.

Ryan Fitzpatrick - Like I said, the Jets' pass defense has been on point. They have allowed only 6.7 points per game to opposing quarterbacks. the most points they have allowed in a game? Seventeen in week one against the Tony Romo and the healthy Dallas Cowboys. I doubt that Fitzpatrick finds his way to double digits in this one.

Christian's Pick: Jets 27, Bills 24
Gabe's Pick: Bills 34, Jets 17 
Taylor's Pick: Jets 27, Bills 17
Zach's Pick: Bills 21, Jets 10


Miami Dolphins @ Kansas City Chiefs  
1:00 PM EST - CBS
Line: Chiefs by 4
Over/Under: 40.5

Start

Dwayne Bowe - The Dolphins have a really sad pass defense; they allow 23.4 points to opposing wide receivers. They are without their top corner Vontae Davis is inactive for his second straight game, and fourth all year. The already vulnerable Dolphins' pass defense just got more vulnerable, believe it or not. You definitely want Bowe in your lineup.

Jackie Battle - In the last three games, Battle's carries go like this ; 19, 16, 19. Miami does have the 4th best fantasy rush defense, but I am not worried about it. I think Chiefs get up early in this one, and I think Battle might even touch the ball thirty times. Battle is a low end running back two this week or flex play.

Sit
Brandon Marshall - Flowers has been playing out of his mind as of late. Last week, matchup up against Vincent Jackson, he allowed Jackson to catch only three passes on his eight targets, including four pass defenses. With Matt Moore at center, I don't see much here for Marshall.

Jon Baldwin/Steve Breaston - I know that Baldwin had a great week last week, but once he had that dropped pass in the third quarter, he wasn't seen again until late in the fourth. With Baldwin getting more targets, Breaston's value is little to none. Both guys are sort of "wait and see" status at this point.

Christian's Pick: Chiefs 24, Dolphins 10
Gabe's Pick: Chiefs 24, Dolphins 20

Taylor's Pick: Chiefs 24, Dolphins 13
Zach's Pick: Chiefs 24, Dolphins 17

San Francisco 49ers @ Washington Redskins
1:00 PM EST - FOX
Line: 49ers by 4
Over/Under: 37.5

Start
Frank Gore - I just wanted to talk about how awesome this guy has been. In some drafts, this guy fell all the way to the middle of the second round. He is showing those people who passed him up in the draft what he can really do when he stays healthy. He now has 125 yards and a touchdown in four straight games. As of now, you have to put him in that class with Adrian Peterson and Arian Foster because of what he is going right now. Until he slows down, if he ever slows down, he is an every week start.

Fred Davis - This is injury permitting since Davis has been battling a grade one ankle sprain this week. Davis has been en elite tight end when Cooley is not active. In fact, Davis has not scored under nine points in any single game when Cooley is not on the field. At this point, Davis is a must start in all formats.


Sit
Both Quarterbacks - Well, you clearly aren't starting John Beck with a combined 34 points in his last three games. Smith has been an interesting story this year. Last year he was in and out with the other Smith (Troy) but this year he has been fairly solid. However, the Redskins have had a surprisingly average pass defense this year. They allow only fourteen points per game to opposing quarterbacks, so I wouldn't be starting Alex Smith this week, unless you are completely desperate.


Ryan Torain - See Bank/Tank.

Christian's Pick: 49ers 20, Redskins 6
Gabe's Pick: 49ers 31, Redskins 10
Taylor's Pick: 49ers 17, Redskins 6
Zach's Pick: 49ers 14, Redskins 10

Seattle Seahawks @ Dallas Cowboys
1:00 PM EST - FOX
Line: Cowboys by 11
Over/Under: 45

Start

Tony Romo - See Bank/Tank.

Miles Austin - See Bank/Tank.


Sit
DeMarco Murray - Seattle allows just over three yards per rush, which is best in the NFL. While I think the Cowboys will run the ball a lot after they take an early lead, I am concerned as to what Murray will be able to do with those carries. He is still a running back two for this week, and probably still a must start.

Marshawyn Lynch - Dallas had the top run defense in the league until Lesean McCoy shredded them for over 100 yards and two touchdowns, just last week. The thing is, Lynch is not McCoy; he is much worse. Keep Lynch on the bench for this week.

Christian's Pick: Cowboys 30, Seahawks 10
Gabe's Pick:  Cowboys 20, Seahawks 13
Taylor's Pick: Cowboys 24, Seahawks 14
Zach's Pick: Cowboys 41, Seahawks 17


Denver Broncos @ Oakland Raiders
4:05 PM EST - CBS
Line: Raiders by 7
Over/Under: 42.5

Start
Willis McGahee - McGahee is back and you know what that means? Another work horse for your fantasy team. McGahee had fifteen carries or more in all of the games that he has started so far this year, including two such games that he had more than twenty carries. McGahee is a solid running back two this week.

A Broncos Wide Receiver - With Tebow under center, who knows who is going to be the top guy this week. In his first week as a starter, Tebow looked for Demaryius Thomas who was making his season debut, then in week eight we saw Eric Decker see the most targets, including a touchdown, and Thomas was targeted just three times. I would stay away from all three receivers (Decker, Thomas, and Royal) unless you are either confident about who will be the top receiver or until someone does emerge as Tebow's favorite target.

Sit
Darrius Heyward-Bey - One reason for this: Heyward-Bey will likely see Champ Bailey in this game. He is going to be a flex at best.

Tim Tebow -  I could go on and on about Tebow and his quarterback skills, but I'm not going to.I'm going to get straight to the point. Tebow is one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the NFL. He misses open targets, he doesn't no when to escape the pocket, he has terrible feet in the pocket, and his mechanics are god awful. I don't care who Tebow is playing, keep him on your bench.

Christian's Pick:  Broncos 17, Raiders 13
Gabe's Pick: Broncos 24, Raiders 17 
Taylor's Pick: Raiders 27, Broncos 13
Zach's Pick: Raiders 26, Denver 13

Cincinnati Bengals @ Tennessee Titans 
4:05 PM EST - CBS
Line: Titans by 3
Over/Under: 41.5

Start
AJ Green - Double digits in every game except for one this year? That clearly makes him a must start. Get this guy in your lineup.

Jared Cook - This one is a gut feeling more than anything. Bengals only allow 6.3 points to opposing tight ends, which is middle of the pack. I guess I just have a good feeline about this one.


Sit
Chris Johnson - See Bank/Tank.


Nate Washington - He hasn't done much since Kenny Britt went down with injury outside of the fifteen point game that he had last week (product of his rushing touchdown). In this game he is going to see one of the most underrated corners in the league in Leon Hall. Keep Washington on the bench and wait for a better week to play him.

Christian's Pick: Bengals 27, Titans 13
Gabe's Pick: Bengals 17, Titans 13 
Taylor's Pick: Titans 23, Bengals 20
Zach's Pick: Titans 20, Bengals 7
 
St.Louis Rams @ Arizona Cardinals
4:15 PM EST - FOX
Line: Cardinals by 3
Over/Under: 41


Start
Brandon Lloyd - The Cardinals have allowed nearly 25 points to opposing wide receivers in 2011. Lloyd has been the top guy for AJ Feeley with Sam Bradford injured, and Lloyd has put up some great fantasy numbers. Bradford could return from an ankle injury this week (gametime decision), but even if he doesn't, I still like Lloyd in this matchup.

Steven Jackson - Jackson single handedly defeated the Saints last week. The Cardinals allow 17 points per game to opposing running backs, which is even more than the Saints. I expect the Rams to get up early (especially if Bradford is healthy) and run the ball in this game.

Sit
All of your Cardinals - With John Skelton in, I expect this entire offense to struggle. I talked about why I don't like Fitzgerald in my Bank/Tank. I think that the Cardinals will be taken out of this game early (See Jackson, Steven), so that probably Wells will be taken out of the game early as well, in terms of carries.

Christian's Pick: Rams 24, Cardinals 10
Gabe's Pick: Cardinals 23, Rams 17
Taylor's Pick: Rams 24, Cardinals 3 
Zach's Pick: Rams 14, Cardinals 12


New York Giants @ New England Patriots
4:15 PM EST - FOX
Line: Patriots by 9
Over/Under: 51\

Start
Wes Welker - The Giants have allowed seven touchdowns to opposing wide receivers and Wes Welker has scored six touchdowns this year. Mismatch? I think so. I look for Welker to return from his vacation to Revis Island this week with one hundred yards and a touchdown.

Brandon Jacsobs - I don't expect the Giants to run much in this game, but when they do run, it is going to be Jacobs, and when they do get to the goal line it is going to be Jacobs. If I was betting on it, I would say that Jacobs finds the end zone this week against a Patriots team that has allowed just five all year.

Victor Cruz/Mario Manningham - Eli Manning playing like an elite quarterback? Hakeem Nicks out with a hamstring injury? High scoring game? Sounds like the perfect equation for these two guys to have big games, and we know that they can do it.

Sit
Nobody - There really isn't anyone that I don't like in this game. Both defenses are very weak in all aspects of the game, and I expect this game to be high scoring. 

Christian's Pick: Patriots 30, Giants 21
Gabe's Pick: Giants 34, Patriots 31
Taylor's Pick: Patriots 27, Giants 24
Zach's Pick: Patriots 31, Giants 21

Green Bay Packers @ San Diego Chargers
4:15 PM EST - FOX
Line: Packers by 5.5
Over/Under: 51

Start
Mike Tolbert -With Ryan Matthews most likely out, the possibilities are endless for Tolbert. Brinkley got involved more last week, and is expected to play this week despite his concussion he suffered on Halloween night. I could see Tolbert scoring a touchdown along with around 80 yards against a team that has allowed just two this year.

Greg Jennings - This guy has been awesome, and I just wanted to point out just how awesome he has been. He has eleven points or more in every game this year except for one, in which he scored eight points. Jennings is clearly Rodgers' favorite target, and the Chargers aren't going to be able to stop him.

Sit
Vincent Jackson - Until Rivers steps up, I really do not want VJax in my lineup. He has just eight points in his last three games, and only seven receptions in those games. Even though the Packers have a weak pass defense, I am keeping Vincent Jackson on my bench.

Packers Running Backs -  Interesting stat: Neither James Starks or Ryan Grant have scored 15 fantasy points in a single game this season . In fact, neither of those two have scored double digits since James Starks did it in the first two weeks of the season. To add on to that, I expect this game to be a shootout, and I expect less than twenty runs between the two of them.


Christian's Pick: Packers 34, Chargers 24
Gabe's Pick: Packers 31, Chargers 28
Taylor's Pick: Packers 34, Chargers 28
Zach's Pick: Packers 35, Chargers 24


Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers
8:27 PM EST - NBC
Line: Pittsburgh by 3
Over/Under: 42

Start

Ray Rice - The Steelers have been less than spectacular in the run stopping department this year. They have coughed up an average on 16 fantasy points to opposing running backs so far this year. If that isn't enough, Rice tore up this defense for 26 points when they met last in week one. Rice is the Ravens offense right now, so I think you are going to see him touch the ball 20-30 times, like we have seen him do almost all year long.

Ben Roethlisberger - This is another gut feeling. When Ben plays bad once (he played bad in week one against the Ravens with five turnovers), he comes back and puts on a show the next time. Not only does he usually bounce back, but he also is great at home.


Sit
Anquan Boldin - Boldin has had a great comeback year after letting everyone down last year in his debut witht he Ravens, but the Steelers are staunch against the pass.The Steelers have allowed just 12.1 points to opposing wide receiver per game this season, as well as just five touchdowns to receivers. Boldin is a flex at best in this tough matchup. Luckily for fantasy owners, it is the last time that these two teams will face off in the regular season.

Rashard Mendenhall - The Ravens give up just eleven points per game to opposing running backs per game, and Mendenhall averages just seven points per game this year (including a two point game in week one against the Raven). I think that is all you need to keep Mendenhall on your bench this week.


Christian's Pick: Steelers 23, Ravens 16
Gabe's Pick: Steelers 27, Ravens 24
Taylor's Pick: Steelers 21, Ravens 20
Zach's Pick: Ravens 17, Steelers 14

Chicago Bears @ Philadelphia Eagles
8:37 PM EST - ESPN
Line: Eagles by 7.5
Over/Under: 47

Start
Jeremy Maclin - See Bank/Tank.

Matt Forte - The Eagles run defense is terrible. Last week might of made you think that they are getting better, but they are not. Murray averaged nearly ten yards per carry against this defense last week, so the possibilities are endless for Forte. The Eagles allow 21.6 points per game to opposing running backs, and you know those points are going to be all for Matt Forte to feast on. Get Matt Forte in your lineup, as always.

Sit
Desean Jackson - See Bank/Tank, and Maclin, Jeremy.


Chicago Bears Wide Receivers - Every week it is a different guy. Last week Roy Williams found the end zone, but in weeks past he has done almost nothing, Knox has done little to nothing all year long, and Sanzenbacher seems to only be used in the redzone. On top of that, the Eagles' corners have finally started to look like they were supposed too, especially last week against the Cowboys where the trio (Nnamdi Asomugha, Asante Samuel, and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie) held Miles Austin and Dez Bryant to just six catches and 51 yards combined. Keep all of these guys on your bench, or in free agency.


Christian's Pick: Eagles 27, Bears 13
Gabe's Pick: Eagles 27, Bears 24
Taylor's Pick: Eagles 31, Bears 17
Zach's Pick: Eagles 24, Bears 17
 
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Thanks for reading. The entire crew (Gabe, Zach, Taylor, and myself) will be making out picks right here every week. We will keep track from here on out for the rest of the season. The record will also be kept on my Twitter, and will be updated periodically on Sunday and then at the end of the week. Be sure to check out the injury report for your injury fix on gameday before you click "submit" on your fantasy lineup, as well as my fantasy rankings. Good luck to you and all of your teams this week. Go get that win!